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Brock Beauchamp

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Everything posted by Brock Beauchamp

  1. Brock Beauchamp
    Well, sure, but Darvish is the only guy that has a better than even chance of outperforming Berrios in 2018, in my opinion. Maybe Arrieta depending how you view his 2017 and whether it was an aberration or the start of a decline. But you're right that in all likelihood, someone outperforms Darvish in 2018... but good luck identifying that person today.
  2. Brock Beauchamp
    That’s not even a little bit true. We’re dealing with single data points with high rates of failure. If plan A has a 68% chance of success and plan B has a 42% chance of success, it’s not a failure if plan B ends up working better than plan A. Obviously, you want the plan with the highest chance of success but nothing is guaranteed in this sport, just look at Johan Santana’s career with the Mets.
  3. Brock Beauchamp
    I’ll be very disappointed if we enter the season with the current rotation. I don’t like any of the available free agent options much but doing nothing is worse than paying a bit too much for mediocrity.
  4. Brock Beauchamp
    Given that there was one starter better than Berrios available in free agency, perhaps your expectations were set unreasonably high. Is anyone confident that any free agent not named Yu Darvish will be markedly better than Berrios in 2018? I’m not.
  5. Brock Beauchamp
    Given that Darvish signed yesterday and almost every free agent SP worth mentioning is still available, I'm not so sure opportunity to solve this issue is lacking. Even though the Twins missed on Darvish, picking up a competent SP would make this offseason acceptable, maybe even good. It's hard to complain about their earlier acquisitions and the Reed deal was very good, as was Pineda (though that likely doesn't matter for 2018).
  6. Brock Beauchamp
    It’s easy to bash Santiago but he was just fine before the injury. The Twins got one very good month out of him and one kinda bad month (mostly okay until the end when he fell apart, probably injury-related but I can’t recall the exact timeline offhand).
  7. Brock Beauchamp
    Between Escobar and Adrianza, they should be able to cover third if Sano can't do it. It's not a perfect situation but it could get you to July and then you make a trade if you're in contention.
  8. Brock Beauchamp
    Oh, sure. I knew that part, was wondering if there was something else. Thanks.
  9. Brock Beauchamp
    How so? Not challenging you, I’m legitimately curious.
  10. Brock Beauchamp
    Someone correct me if I’m wrong but I thought pro ball players paid taxes based on where they play. Sixteen games in New York, you pay New York taxes on 10% of your salary. Eight games in Los Angeles, you pay California taxes on 5% of your salary. Is that not how it works?
  11. Brock Beauchamp
    Given the numbers that are being thrown around, I’d stick to five years and increase the money. My personal threshold was 5/$140m before considering six years and it seems we’re not even close to that number.
  12. Brock Beauchamp
    It's not that I'm giving them the benefit of the doubt, it's that I try to refrain from making accusations without evidence.
  13. Brock Beauchamp
    I don't think collusion is involved but it's always a possibility in this sport. I think what we're seeing is a correction; sports salaries can't continue to grow at the rate they've been growing for the past couple of decades. I agree that 5/$110m seems a little light for Darvish but not irrationally so. He's a very good pitcher but hasn't strung together dominant full seasons. Sure, he's just as likely to be healthy as any other pitcher his age but I think that's the sticking point: his age. I believe teams are starting to rethink how they offer contracts to players - particularly pitchers - into their late 30s. I think this market is analytics-driven and we'll see this issue continue as the market reestablishes itself. That doesn't mean contracts will freeze but I suspect free agency contract growth won't be what it once was. Couple that with the big players bowing out this year to reset their payroll taxes and Darvish is angling for a contract he's probably not going to get. With that said, I wouldn't think too long or too hard about giving Darvish 5/$125m and calling it a day. But, as I've mentioned, I'd give him a deadline along with the offer because enough is enough.
  14. Brock Beauchamp
    I'm not impugning his character, I'm just saying he crawled out too far on the branch. Make him an offer, give him a deadline, and be prepared to walk away if he doesn't accept. I have nothing against the guy but he's creating a very difficult situation for a handful of teams and a handful of free agents. And while Darvish is a very good pitcher, he's not Clayton Kershaw.
  15. Brock Beauchamp
    Yeah. I was pretty forgiving of Darvish's holdout because who wouldn't hold out for a better deal? But holding out for a month is one thing. Holding out until pitchers and catchers report is something else. If the Twins are confident they have the best offer on the table, they should give a deadline. If they want to sweeten the deal (say $1m extra per season) and put in a hard deadline, so be it. But Darvish can't hold the entire free agent market hostage. If he's still dragging his feet after sweetening the pot, go sign someone else and get on with it.
  16. Brock Beauchamp
    If you're Falvey, at what point do you walk away from Darvish? I may have done it already. If he's going to drag his feet for this long because he so badly wants the Dodgers to enter the competition, he can **** straight off. I want him on the team but not badly enough to let this drag into the week before pitchers and catchers report. I hope Falvey and Levine have told him the offer comes off the table in the near future (say, Monday).
  17. Brock Beauchamp
    I think that's a bit of an exaggeration. He went 6.0, 7.0, 3.2 innings in his final three starts while giving up a total of 11 runs and striking out 20 batters. Definitely groan-worthy at times but between two pretty bad starts, his second to last start was a 7.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 SO performance. Like I said, I question whether Gibson will be good but I think he can get his ERA under 5.00, which is an improvement. He might even be adequate (4.40-4.60 ERA), but I'm not counting on it.
  18. Brock Beauchamp
    Also remember that Hildenberger didn't join the team until June 23.
  19. Brock Beauchamp
    Whoa, Gibson was decent for longer than I thought he was. Outside his absolutely terrible first two months, he posted 21 starts with 121.1 innings and a 4.24 ERA to close out the season.
  20. Brock Beauchamp
    A change of approach coupled with actual performance improvement over a moderate stretch of time. I didn't say he'd be way better, only that he'd be better. I'm quite skeptical about Gibson but I think he'll have a sub-5.00 ERA this season. Don't confuse "better" with "good".
  21. Brock Beauchamp
    I think the truth is somewhere between you two. The Twins won 85 games but overperformed BaseRuns and pythag to do it (+4 BR, +1 pythag). They were probably an 82-83 team on talent. And while some position players might step back, I suspect more will step forward for a full season. Both Buxton and Polanco ended the season with pedestrian numbers; it's likely both do better. It's likely Rosario slides a bit. It's likely Dozier slides a bit. Maybe Mauer. But Sano may step forward, or at least play a pretty good 130+ game season. The bullpen is waaay better. I think the rotation is a wash right now. Santana will likely regress. Berrios will get a full season, somewhat offsetting Ervin. It's unlikely guys like Colon will get as many starts. Gibson will likely be better. There's no Santiago, who was absolutely atrocious after the injury. And if some of those guys falter, the Twins have actual upside guys in the high minors to back them up. I doubt any of those players will light the world on fire but I think at least one of them will be respectable.
  22. Brock Beauchamp
    I'd have the paperwork filed before I hung up the phone.
  23. Brock Beauchamp
    I suspect negotiations begin and end with Lewis plus lots of other stuff. Because if you trade Archer, you're rebuilding. And taking on Berrios (a little below Archer in performance but more control) is shuffling deck chairs. Taking on Buxton might be smart (any time you can take a positional player of that calibre, you do it) but then the pitching staff weakens so much that it's probably irrelevant to have Buxton at all. So we loop back to Lewis plus other stuff.
  24. Brock Beauchamp
    And my point is that it doesn't really change much this year, either. What is the net gain/loss from swapping Vargas and Napoli? I don't think it's much either way. Given an option free of strings, I'd choose Vargas but I don't really care much either way. The Twins don't need Nunez. They have Escobar and Adrianza to cover positional needs around the diamond. They have Granite to back up the outfield defensively, though it'd be a lot nicer to have a RHB available instead of Granite. But Nunez isn't good against lefties anyway so he brings more of the same to the table. Nunez is redundant on this roster. The Twins need a slugger who can hit RHP and it'd be nice if he could play the OF but neither Napoli nor Vargas can play the outfield so, eh, whatever. Pick your poison, I'm not sure it matters much.
  25. Brock Beauchamp
    I don't want him on the roster but he was capable against lefties last season (.750 OPS), despite his bad overall numbers. The Twins can work with that profile and get him plate appearances. If Napoli somehow brings the Twins Darvish, the loss of Vargas - who I don't think will amount to much in MLB - isn't going to worry me much. With Rooker expected to fly through the system with relative ease, one year of Napoli likely won't hurt the Twins much in the long run. We're talking about a one year contract to an aging DH and potentially losing another DH who *might* be serviceable but not much more than that. It's the easiest thing to replace in baseball on a yearly basis. Finding a one year DH for $5-8m every season is not hard to do, even if Rooker falters for a bit.
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