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Brock Beauchamp

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Everything posted by Brock Beauchamp

  1. Brock Beauchamp
    He'd have to be a damned fool to let that happen. If he sits out, he gets partial money for a partial season AFTER most teams have committed their budgets to other players (meaning a one year deal for Darvish would easily net him $25m+ right now and maybe a prorated $15-17m in two months, which would net Darvish maybe $10-12m for the 2018 season). Under that scenario, he literally gives away $10-15m. To add to that, it means Darvish has to re-enter next offseason with a partial season under his belt at one year older age. Outside of Clemens' weird retirement-not-retirement, has holding out EVER worked for a player, either in free agency or the draft?
  2. Brock Beauchamp
    I wouldn't even say it's a non-trivial chance, I'd say it's likely. Torii Hunter posted a career high in WAR during his age 36 season. Betcha we all would have lost a bet had we been asked about Hunter's best season without BR or FG handy. As you mentioned, Verlander had a career revival in his age 33 season. Good players, if they stick in the league, often don't gradually decline, they jerk up and down season-over-season, but only after several seasons can you spot the overall trend of their decline. But there's a good chance that mixed into that decline, you'll get a couple of well above average seasons, if not a career-best if you're really lucky.
  3. Brock Beauchamp
    Spycake is killing it in these Darvish threads.
  4. Brock Beauchamp
    Well, Arrieta has the added problem of coming off a down year, which is why I'm suggesting he consider taking a one-year deal and nobody else.
  5. Brock Beauchamp
    Sure, under normal circumstances I would agree but he's one of four pitchers still unsigned on February 2nd and it appears he's not getting much in the way of interest. Taking a one year deal would probably get him snatched up immediately and he could try again next year under more favorable circumstances.
  6. Brock Beauchamp
    The sixth year is more than questionable. It's a bad idea. But it's a bad idea I'd float out there if it meant Darvish was a Twin for the first 3-4 years of that contract. Sometimes, you bite the bullet and offer more than you want but my personal pain threshold stops at six years.
  7. Brock Beauchamp
    Nah, I'd probably draw the line at six years because it appears he's not going to get a comparable offer form anyone else.
  8. Brock Beauchamp
    I don't mean to stick a pin in your balloon but here is what Gibson looked like for a pretty large portion of 2015: 8 GS, 47.0 IP, 3.64 ERA, 14 BB, 44 SO That's the time I thought Gibson had turned the corner because it's hard to "fake" strikeouts over a ten game stretch of starts. Maybe not so much.
  9. Brock Beauchamp
    Honestly, I'm now kinda leaning toward avoiding a Lynn or Cobb deal at this point (unless they can be had for a steal). I don't want either one on a four year deal. Two years? Sure, but that's unlikely to happen. Arrieta is a question mark but his upside is waaaaaayyy higher than either of those guys. If it came down to Gibson or Cobb/Lynn, I may roll with Gibson (knowing that May is in the mix, as are Gonsalves and Romero).
  10. Brock Beauchamp
    I'm starting to wonder if the best thing for Arrieta might be a one year, make good deal (albeit at a very high number, like $25m). His fastball velocity was down in 2017 and his numbers reflected it. I'd pay through the nose to get one year of an Arrieta who's trying to prove that he's worth a 3-4 year deal, even though I'm not much of an Arrieta fan really.
  11. Brock Beauchamp
    I'd rather go $160m/6 than $150m/5, as it keeps the yearly investment down a bit during what *should* be competitive seasons for the team. If I went five years, I'd probably bow out somewhere around $140m, at which point I'd consider taking the "easy win" and adding a sixth year.
  12. Brock Beauchamp
    Yep, the knife cuts both ways, though the Twins have reason to want to avoid late-contract expense (competitive reasons) while the player does not. I get why front-loaded contracts don't happen but I still think it's stupid and short-sighted. An additional 1-2 seasons of competitiveness and the ensuing windfall of postseason/attendance money offsets the money "lost" via inflation or investment.
  13. Brock Beauchamp
    This is how mid-market teams need to operate. It will sting to lose Dozier but that's a risk you need to take to keep payroll manageable and shore up other positions of need. Hopefully, Gordon posts another .750 OPS season and gets a late-season taste of MLB pitching. Then you're in a pretty good position to run Polanco/Gordon in the middle infield in 2019. But the Twins might keep Dozier. I don't know where I'd put the threshold to offer/decline a QO but it's probably in the .775 OPS range. I'd pay Dozier a lot of money to put up middling performance (hoping for a rebound) if he slides in 2018. Of course, that OPS number needs to be higher if Gordon goes nuts in Rochester and posts an .800+ OPS. If Gordon looks good/great, then you need to be confident Dozier will decline the QO. Overall, the Twins are in a pretty strong position here and I'm not worried about it.
  14. Brock Beauchamp
    Yeah, this. The Twins are a postseason team built on a young core. If now isn't the time to add, it's never the time to add and the Twins may as well become the St Louis Browns in perpetuity.
  15. Brock Beauchamp
    I agree that both Cobb and Lynn would be an upgrade to the rotation but how much of an upgrade is more difficult to judge. Whereas Darvish isn't only an upgrade, the only pitcher who could come close to his performance is Berrios and that would require a pretty big step forward from Jose. My point overall is that it's time to stop working (only) in the margins and begin to acquire players that make the team significantly better going forward. As I said, Lynn or Cobb are fine consolation prizes but I hope the Twins are aiming higher this offseason.
  16. Brock Beauchamp
    My point isn't that Santana failed in the Wild Card game, it's that the Twins had to go to New York and play said Wild Card game and the reason they didn't play at home is because their pitching staff was well below average. I'd certainly prefer to see someone better than Santana pitch the first game of the postseason but mostly I'm concerned about the 30-33 regular season starts that player gets before the postseason.
  17. Brock Beauchamp
    If now isn't the time to make a push, I'm not sure there will ever be a time to make a push. After this season, Dozier is likely gone. That's 3-5 wins you need to replace. Some of the core enters arbitration, which means the clock starts ticking on them as they become more expensive. And next offseason, Mauer comes off the books, which means a Darvish contract will almost entirely be absorbed by the removal of another contract.
  18. Brock Beauchamp
    Yeah, while Lynn/Cobb is a decent consolation prize for those who lose the Darvish sweepstakes, the Twins already have two pitchers capable of equal or better performance going forward (Santana, Berrios). And that combo didn't get the Twins out of the Wild Card game in 2017. I want a clear upgrade, not another guy who's just "good". Though I won't throw a fit if the front office signs a "good" pitcher, I'd simply prefer something better than that.
  19. Brock Beauchamp
    That's fair, I'm certainly wary of the guy as well, but I think you're trying a little too hard to downplay his talent level. He's a very good pitcher and it's completely fine to believe he's not the $150m pitcher you want your hometown team to sign without digging into very SSS arguments to defend that opinion.
  20. Brock Beauchamp
    You've built some really strange narratives around Darvish. 1. If the Astros (and other good teams) can just hit Darvish at will, why'd Darvish post 12 very good innings against Houston during the regular season and why was he so far above average overall? 2. Darvish had the 12th-highest K/9 rate in baseball last season among qualified pitchers (and he played most of the season in the AL). He absolutely has "go ahead, try to hit this" stuff. 3. He's not going to be paid like he's the best pitcher in baseball, he's just going to be paid very well and (likely) in line with his talent level. There's no way he gets $200m+ in a Kershaw, Greinke, or Scherzer level of contract.
  21. Brock Beauchamp
    Felix Hernandez has thrown 500 more innings in MLB than Darvish has in NPB + MLB. Felix Hernandez' fastball is down 4-5mph from his peak seasons. Darvish had the highest fastball velocity of his career in 2017.
  22. Brock Beauchamp
    Yu Darvish, Wade Davis, and pretty much whomever else you wanted. And at that point, the Twins are one of the best teams in all of baseball.
  23. Brock Beauchamp
    Pitcher wins? Really? Darvish pitched 186 very good innings in 2017. His win total is irrelevant, as it's not his fault the offense failed to score runs while he was on the mound (8th lowest run support in baseball last season).
  24. Brock Beauchamp
    No player should be signed regardless of price but the Twins should certainly stretch to get Darvish. And if that doesn't get it done, it doesn't get it done.
  25. Brock Beauchamp
    I think you're really overstating things here. I'm pretty wary of Darvish but calling his Dodgers performance disappointing is focusing on his World Series performance and ignoring the other 11 starts he made with the team, where he was excellent while in Los Angeles.
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