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Brock Beauchamp

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Everything posted by Brock Beauchamp

  1. Brock Beauchamp
    BaseRuns standings take into account that games are separate entities and pay attention to sequencing, good or bad (to remove the lop-sided win thing you just talked about). The Reds are -7 in pythag and -5 in BaseRuns. That's not much of a difference. The Reds are playing better than their record indicates by a significant margin.
  2. Brock Beauchamp
    He looks good... but it's 50 PAs. Again, if Arraez had more positional flexibility, I'd keep him around but he plays second base, which is a dead-end position. You can put him at third or short but you'll regret the decision if it happens too frequently. Between Astudillo and Arraez, I keep the catcher because catchers are super-useful, especially one that can man several other positions (albeit kinda badly). It gives a lot of flexibility to make moves in-game.
  3. Brock Beauchamp
    Cron is only arb 3 next season. It's pretty much a no-brainer to bring him back for the $8-10m it will take to retain him.
  4. Brock Beauchamp
    He’ll likely be sent back down and that’s fine, really. Having a great ~50 intro PAs is great but it’s not enough to displace a starter yet. Arraez is under control for a long time and while I don’t want to see him traded, I’m not ready to move other roster spots to make space for him quite yet. I may feel differently if he had more positional flexibility.
  5. Brock Beauchamp
    I only expect one to return but I’d offer the QO to both for leverage.
  6. Brock Beauchamp
    Cincinnati is 36-39 with a +50 run differential. That's a 43-31 pythag record.
  7. Brock Beauchamp
    There can never be enough things written about the greatness of Mike Trout.
  8. Brock Beauchamp
    Oh, I was pretty openly sobbing during Cap's segment of the movie. It was such a great send-off to the ultimate human ideal of a character, which has resonated with me since I was 8-9 years old. Tony Stark's send-off? Didn't even get my eyes wet a little. I love the character, love the actor, love the character arc, but he's not a person I want to see succeed. He's just an arrogant douche that I kinda love but don't have a lot of emotional investment in seeing die.
  9. Brock Beauchamp
    There is close to a zero percent chance both of them take the QO, which is what gives the Twins leverage as both try to negotiate a long-term deal with another team that has to lose a draft pick. And if they both (amazingly) take the offer, your starting rotation is solid, if unspectacular... and all you take is a bit of a beating on payroll in a year when payroll will be increasing anyway due to the previous year's success. It's pretty much a no-brainer.
  10. Brock Beauchamp
    If things hold steady, they should QO both Odo and Gibson and leverage one into a three year deal. Very little lost by offering both of those guys ~$18m for a season.
  11. Brock Beauchamp
  12. Brock Beauchamp
    Numbers are fine but they don’t tell why something happened. Look at what Boston did to Sano during that series; they threw him breaking balls down and then went high fastball and Sano could not come close to making contact with the ball. Rinse, repeat. As a result, he struck out around 75% of the time in that series. That is not a problem that will go away, especially once teams have a little time to soak in that film and adapt to what Boston did with frightening success.
  13. Brock Beauchamp
    Ugh. Whatever. If you bothered to understand my posting history, I *never* predict numbers because it’s a guessing game based on a myriad of factors that are largely unpredictable (health being a key factor). If you want to shout numbers back and forth at a person, you barked up the wrong tree and it has nothing to do with me wanting to have it both ways. Also, stop trying to define on your terms how I get to have a conversation on this forum.
  14. Brock Beauchamp
    We agree on something!
  15. Brock Beauchamp
    Because I’m not concerned about the performance numbers, I’m concerned about the approach that is leading to diminished performance numbers. I care about the disease, not the symptoms. Fix the disease and the symptoms follow. This isn’t a contest where we guess how many jelly beans are in the jar and the closest guess gets a stuffed bear.
  16. Brock Beauchamp
    Yeah, my response is emotional. Try to tone down the arrogance a bit. Strikeouts are not the actual problem but they're a corollary issue that shows there's a problem. And swinging and missing the ball constantly is not like running into a patch of bad luck and posting a .400 OPS for a couple of weeks while slumping; it's indicative of a large issue under the surface. It's like a starting pitcher running out there for three consecutive starts while walking a batter an inning but posting a 4.00 ERA. Sure, the end result looks... okay... but there's obviously something wrong in that situation and it should not be ignored just because the surface stats show mediocre results.
  17. Brock Beauchamp
    He hasn't struck out today, which is a bigger positive sign than anything else.
  18. Brock Beauchamp
    Because it's a bad question to ask, one that depends on whether Sano adjusts to how pitchers are exploiting his swing right now. If Sano continues down the road he's been on for the past few weeks, he'll be demoted. If he improves, then everything is probably just fine. The question is whether Sano can adjust, not what OPS he'll produce in 2019. And I don't know the answer to that question and neither do you.
  19. Brock Beauchamp
    I don't think Sano should be sent down right now because Gonzalez is on the IL. But if Marwin gets back and Sano has posted another handful of games with a K rate over 50%, he should probably be sent down because that means there is something terribly wrong with his approach, swing, mental state, or all of the above. Guys can't continue to produce when they're missing the ball that often.
  20. Brock Beauchamp
    Go ahead, keep ignoring that a guy is striking out in 2/3rds of his plate appearances because that’s obviously not a big deal, nor is it something we’ve seen from Sano in the past as he goes into a long tailspin.
  21. Brock Beauchamp
    And it shouldn't be forgotten that Sano did this in 2018 as well. He had a 1.006 OPS through his first eight games before plunging to a .739 OPS by the end of April.
  22. Brock Beauchamp
    You're right, Sano has 1700 career PAs. And in the last 411 of them (2018-present), he has struck out 162 times while posting a .721 OPS. This isn't a new problem.
  23. Brock Beauchamp
    This is a case where looking at the overall numbers doesn't really indicate what's happening today. Sano's first ten games of the season: 46 PA, 16 SO, .237/.348/.711/1.058 Sano's 11-20th games of the season: 40 PA, 15 SO, .243/.300/.432/.732 Sano's 21-26th games of the season: 26 PA, 16 SO, .130/.231/.391/.622 That's not a slump, that's a massive hole in approach that is being exploited by pitchers.
  24. Brock Beauchamp
    Mostly agreed, though I'd put pitch recognition on the list over plate discipline. Miguel is getting fooled by some pretty terrible pitches right now.
  25. Brock Beauchamp
    Stopppppppppp it with this .850 OPS stuff. Over the past 28 days, Sano has a .709 OPS and a .198 batting average. He's not playing well and literally struck out in 80% of his plate appearances last night.
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