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Brock Beauchamp

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Everything posted by Brock Beauchamp

  1. Brock Beauchamp
    You're using counting stats in a single season where it was shown that counting stats were completely blown out of proportion by a ball that leapt off the bat. The Twins literally had five 30 home run hitters last season. They were literally the first team in the 100-what-the-hell-ever seasons of MLB to accomplish that feat. So exactly how special was it to hit 30 home runs in 2019? Rosario finished fourth on his own team in home runs, just one ahead of a guy with 240 fewer plate appearances.
  2. Brock Beauchamp
    Like OPS, DRC+ only looks at hitting, though. I don't think anyone is arguing whether Rosario is a pretty good hitter, the question is whether he's worth what he's being paid considering his defensive ability and whether the Twins could use him in trade for someone who could help the team *more*.
  3. Brock Beauchamp
    wut
  4. Brock Beauchamp
    This is what I don't understand. If he's ready to start, put him in Minnesota. If he's not, well... the way this team is aligned, the first half of the season is going to be much more difficult to manage than the second half (in regards to the rotation), so I'm not really sure what they're doing here. Pretty early on, they'll get Pineda back. Hopefully after that, they'll get Hill. I'm not really sure how or where easing Graterol into the rotation works given the dynamics of this team.
  5. Brock Beauchamp
    No, it's not. Trevor Plouffe, like Eddie Rosario in 2019, was a completely competent MLB starter. But the way the arbitration system works squeezes "competent starters" out of the mix in year 2/3 because it makes little sense to keep a 29 year old starter at $11m when you can go get a 31 year old starter for $6m. Trevor Plouffe has a career 8.2 fWAR. That's fine, that's what you would expect out of a decent MLB starter for several years but when arb clocks them in for 1.2 WAR at $11m, you cut bait. It's not an insult, it's just the financials of baseball because you can hit free agency and get a similar player for half the price.
  6. Brock Beauchamp
    The reality is that Rosario wasn't very good last year. He was quite good the year before that. Don't promote lazy takes, no one wears them well. No one here wants Rosario to fail, as we are all Twins fans... but the reality of the situation is that he stumbled a bit last season, particularly on defense, and he's facing a big pay raise in the coming offseason. Cody is making a valid point: what will it take for the Rosario to earn that last year of arbitration when he's due something around $10m or more?
  7. Brock Beauchamp
    Beat me to it. Besides, Johan wasn't close to Graterol at age 20. At age 20, Johan was a prospect lost in the Rule V draft, a prospect with upside but not enough upside to protect in the Astros system. It was only after a few stops and starts, a Cueller changeup, that Johan became the dominant force he was. Graterol is a different story. He's a 100mph pitcher with a good slider and a change/curve with potential. And he reached the majors at 20 years old while Santana only reached the majors at 21 out of necessity (the Rule V draft) and wasn't actually good until he was 23 years old. Not really the same situation... at all.
  8. Brock Beauchamp
    Oh, just stop. That's not what I said nor am I defending the Pohlads in any way. My point is that, from a purely competitive long-term standpoint, going from $130m to $180m in a single offseason on a team that needs to continue to offer raises to its home-grown players enters unreasonable territory unless you then expect the Twins to be at a $200m payroll in 2022. Besides, in 2019, a $180m payroll would have put the Twins fifth in all of baseball.
  9. Brock Beauchamp
    Now that I think about it more, this ask from the Sox is pretty laughable. Is there a single team in baseball *able* to take on $50m+ in contracts right now, much less one that is *willing* to take on $50m+ in contracts? Almost all the teams that can handle that kind of payroll addition have recently scaled their payrolls to the point where they can’t do it right now.
  10. Brock Beauchamp
    I definitely think it’s time to go for it, I’m only saying that pushing payroll from $130m to $180m in a single offseason is unlikely to happen and, with Price involved, might not even be a good idea.
  11. Brock Beauchamp
    While I believe the Twins should be closer to $160m in payroll, this would put them around $180m, which is probably unreasonable.
  12. Brock Beauchamp
    He doesn’t have overpowering stuff, his track record is something of a rollercoaster, and he has a history of back problems. Take a mph off here and there, restrict pitch movement with a stiff back, whatever... it’s not hard to see Odorizzi go from above average to below average or out of baseball within a couple of years if things go to hell. See Hughes, Phil.
  13. Brock Beauchamp
    I don’t like this much, at least not in 2020. The Twins’ bullpen is already pretty good, they don’t *need* Graterol. But that rotation sure could use a Graterol whether he arrives in 2021, 2022, or whenever.
  14. Brock Beauchamp
    Yeah, White was coming off a "great" season where he played in all of 90-something games and posted a BABIP around .330, the highest he had posted since he played half his games on the bounce-happy turf of Olympic Stadium. While BABIP seems pretty primitive by today's standards, it was the type of thing smart teams were still paying attention to in the mid-2000s, which only illustrated how Ryan's front office was slipping behind the times (and continued to do so for the next decade). And no, this wasn't hindsight. All of this was discussed at great length before the 2006 season by the more sabr-inclined posters on the Elysian Fields and, later that season, BYTO.
  15. Brock Beauchamp
    Oh, I didn’t realize we were talking about an extension today. I was acting as if May was a FA today and what he’d probably get. If the Twins pursue an extension before the season starts, definitely lop a couple of million off that AAV.
  16. Brock Beauchamp
    I think that’s reasonable. Maybe 2/$14m gets it done, but I don’t think it will. Daniel Hudson just signed for 2/$11m and I’d *much* rather have the upside and age of May. No, May isn’t stellar but stellar relievers don’t sign 2/$15m deals. Good relievers sign that kind of deal and May is a good reliever.
  17. Brock Beauchamp
    I suspect that if the Twins approached Odo with a 3/$50m extension today, it’d get the job done. In essence, it would be a four year contract for around $68m. That’s roughly in line with what he would have expected on the free agent market and if it takes $5-8m more to put ink on the contract today, that’s fine.
  18. Brock Beauchamp
    I think May will want something more in the range of $8-9m a year.
  19. Brock Beauchamp
    Wow, I knew they were cheap but I couldn't believe this was true but it (mostly) is. Sportrac has them just over $100m in 2016 but the general idea of your post is correct, that the Rockies spent waaayyyyyy less than they should have spent until relatively recently.
  20. Brock Beauchamp
    I’m 100% on the side of the DH. I have no interest in watching pitchers flail at a baseball and kill rallies on a regular basis.
  21. Brock Beauchamp
    Garver was the worst defensive catcher in baseball in 2018, if I recall correctly. He was truly awful behind the plate when he arrived in Minnesota.
  22. Brock Beauchamp
    OF/1B/DH depth is easy, catching depth is not. And I don't think the Twins actually have enough catching depth to really think about trading someone unless the perfect deal arises to make them want to do it. As for past catching depth, it's pretty hard to rival Mauer with Ramos in the minors. Garver may be good but he ain't Joe Mauer and while some of the prospects might be good, Ramos *at least* equalled them at the time. Or, if you want to go back a few more years, Pierzynski in Minnesota with Mauer in the minors. That may have literally been the best catching depth in the history of MLB. We're talking about a guy in MLB with 20+ career WAR, followed by a guy with close to 50 career WAR. Now that I think of it, the Twins have this weird ability to field some really nasty players at the ends of the field; centerfield and catcher. How does a team field so many good/great players at those two positions over 40 years while sucking pretty hard at fielding even decent players at the other seven spots?
  23. Brock Beauchamp
    I'm going to ask you to back up a moment here because, if what I'm understanding you're saying, is that you're suggesting THIS front office made a mistake with Garver. Is that what you're saying? Because this front office inherited Garver after the 2016 season and had him in Minnesota later in the 2017 season, when he was atrocious behind the plate. Once he came to Minnesota in 2017, he never left again. If you're saying this front office did something wrong, what exactly could they have done differently?
  24. Brock Beauchamp
    I really dislike that the players are getting off with no punishment but acknowledge why it happened. Thankfully, Manfred got out in front of this a few years ago by saying "teams and their management will be punished for the infractions of their players" or something of that ilk. At least he thought all of this out a bit because punishing players opens up a giant can of worms with the MLBPA. Sure, Lunhow and Hinch will get back into baseball, but it won't be at the positions they previously held and it will be reluctantly. Ultimately, they may return to the positions they previously held but that will take years and each will have to start over at a much lower level, which is a pretty massive penalty. Say you're senior management in a company. If you know that if you cheat and someone catches you, you will be unemployed for a year, then spend the next 5+ years slowly working your way back to seniority, all the while having the taint of what you did hanging over you, would you do it? My guess is that the answer to the question is "hard no", especially given just how little advantage that cheating gave you in the first place.
  25. Brock Beauchamp
    Professional sports do not, and should not, operate like the jackassery that is the NCAA (literally the worst sports organization in the world, even surpassing FIFA and the NFL). Lifetime bans aren't necessary and set a bar so high that any nuance is lost should later, more ambiguous, situations arise. One year is fine as a first offense because, in the case of Lunhow and Hinch, it's going to end up being a lot more than that. Just like everyone who follows. If you get caught cheating, lose a year, and are fired, you're not going to hop right back into the same position you left. It's going to be a long, slow crawl back through the ranks, if you ever make it back at all. And that's enough, isn't it? The point is to stop this behavior and if MLB can lop someone off at the knees for half of their career with a simple one year suspension, what more is needed? If managers and GMs realize that if their team is caught cheating (even if they don't condone it, a la Hinch), they'll basically lose their career for a decade or more. What more do you need to do to stop that kind of behavior? Managers and GMs are now on notice that they're basically ****ed if they let this kind of thing happen under their watch, which is plenty enough to keep them in line because people in baseball love baseball and will do whatever it takes to stay there.
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