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Brock Beauchamp

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Everything posted by Brock Beauchamp

  1. Brock Beauchamp
    Not elite yet, no. His 2014 is dragging him down. He'll need to finish 2015 strong and do the same in 2016.
  2. Brock Beauchamp
    I'd play fast and loose with Arcia and Vargas but Kepler is just getting his feet under him. Due to growing up in Germany and getting injured, I think slow and steady is the right path for Max.
  3. Brock Beauchamp
    I know the stats are readily available but Kepler's line at AA is worth posting: .331 .412 .521 .933 294 PAs 35 BB 37 SO (!) As a 22 year old in AA with fringy up-the-middle skills, that approaches "elite prospect" territory. The only major ding on him as a player is that he didn't have a very good season in 2014.
  4. Brock Beauchamp
    More than that. If you want to dive into one of the longest threads in TD history, there's A LOT of discussion here: http://twinsdaily.com/topic/19271-article-twins-rockies-talk-tulowitzki/page-23
  5. Brock Beauchamp
    Prospect lists haven't caught up with Kepler yet. MLB GMs will not suffer the same problem. Kepler is showing the massive upside the Twins thought he had when they signed him out of Germany. But you're right, if the Yankees get into the mix, they could easily drive up the price with a bevy of good prospects. If I was Ryan, I'd bow out the moment a bidding war started. The risk in Tulo is too great to overpay for him and there's too much to lose if you're wrong.
  6. Brock Beauchamp
    I think the Yankees would have to offer both Severino and Judge to match Berrios and Kepler. Severino is a stud and I'd probably take him over Berrios but Judge... Eh, I'd go with the huge upside of Kepler over Judge. I've always been slightly skeptical of Kepler but his contact ability, discipline, and potential as a centerfielder won me over. Judge has to rake to be a good player but Kepler has an outside shot at being a fringy centerfielder in the majors, which makes it a lot easier to get production out of him. Also, Kepler is nearly a full year younger. Agreed on the Mets. If they want to get into the mix, they could win Tulo (really, so could the Twins, but Ryan isn't trading Buxton or Sano).
  7. Brock Beauchamp
    Not to mention that you also free up $20m to sign some pretty good players. A team could look pretty good in 2016-2017 with Gibson/Berrios, Polanco, Kepler/Walker, and $20m.
  8. Brock Beauchamp
    It didn't work from the Twins' side of things. It wasn't until I started rearranging multiple pieces that I saw a way to make it work. I'm still not 100% sold on the idea. It's a big gamble... But it sure is interesting.
  9. Brock Beauchamp
    I know nothing of the Rockies' financials but yeah, there's a good chance they're in no hurry to trade Tulowitzki at all.
  10. Brock Beauchamp
    He had no greater injury risk than any other healthy player. Tulo can't say the same. He missed half his team's games from 2012-2014. Santana was as much of a sure thing as one can find in a pitcher at the time of the trade. He never started fewer than 33 games after entering the rotation to start a season.
  11. Brock Beauchamp
    I don't know. It's not far from the Johan deal and Santana was the best pitcher in baseball with no injury risk. He was also two years younger. All three players are on the cusp of MLB (unlike the Johan deal). Berrios is a 30-ish prospect. Polanco is a fringe 100. Kepler is pretty much a lock to creep into the 75 range this offseason (that kid is seriously raking at an advanced level). On top of that, who in baseball needs a SS and can even match that offer?
  12. Brock Beauchamp
    I don't see the Rockies getting a top ten prospect from the Twins or anyone else, not with the money he's owed over the next several years (which is why I think cash considerations will not be part of the deal). Prospects, especially blue chippers, are just too highly prized in today's game and there's a lot of risk coming along with Tulo: age, injuries, money.
  13. Brock Beauchamp
    That's very possible. We step into the world of pure hypothesis in that regard. If I was the Rockies, I'd tell Ryan to pound sand if he wants cash included in the deal.
  14. Brock Beauchamp
    I've become really bullish on Berrios despite his physical makeup. I'm really reluctant to trade the kid because he seems like the kind of person who succeeds through sheer force of will. I don't know if that can be quantified. If I gave up Berrios, I'd be reluctant to include Kepler in the deal. Something has to give there and I'd push Walker I that scenario.
  15. Brock Beauchamp
    I don't disagree with that. He might have a 4 WAR season mixed in there somewhere but he's not an ace.
  16. Brock Beauchamp
    Berrios is the risk. He might be good, he might be a disaster. That's why the deal is a big gamble and would require some serious stones to sign off on. The loss of Gibson puts a lot of risk into this season. 2016 and beyond it's a lesser risk.
  17. Brock Beauchamp
    If you can dish off Ricky Bobby in the process, I'd have the paperwork signed and faxed over before I could finish saying "yes" and hang up the phone. But I think that's a whole lot of wishful thinking and not based in reality. I think Nolasco is a drag on the deal, not a benefit.
  18. Brock Beauchamp
    Losing Gibson would hurt not because of Kyle's greatness but because of the depth behind him on the team. That has always been my argument. I think Kyle is a pretty good pitcher and will continue to be one for a few years but he's a lot more Brad Radke than Johan Santana. If you have two other Brad Radkes, cool. If you have Tommy Milones and Mike Pelfreys, not so cool.
  19. Brock Beauchamp
    And that's fair. I'd rather trade Rosario as well but I don't think he gets it done. I've just never been that high on Eddie.
  20. Brock Beauchamp
    Arica, definitely. Vargas, eh. Walker, NO. There's very little doubt in my mind that Walker would be crucified by MLB pitching.
  21. Brock Beauchamp
    That's exactly why it's the kind of ballsy move I could get behind. It's a feast or famine type of move, which is exactly what I think the Twins need right now to stay in it. And it doesn't sacrifice much of their longterm outlook in the process.
  22. Brock Beauchamp
    Well, it's a massive risk. There's a good chance that team finishes under .500 on the season. But it's the kind of "we're banking on our best kids and we're going to sink or swim with them leading the way" move that I can get behind.
  23. Brock Beauchamp
    Though an interesting idea is to really roll the dice on the season. Trade Gibson, Polanco, and Kepler or Walker (obviously, Walker is preferred) for Tulowitzki. Do the Rockies listen? Put May back into the rotation and here's where it gets interesting. Move Pelfrey to the bullpen or move him for a middling bullpen arm (that should be a reasonable task). The riskiest part of this deal? Jose Berrios is promoted and inserted into the rotation. The Twins could collapse but the upside is there to be really good. Very risky but that's the type of deal I could get behind. Most of the key components stay in place (minus Gibson) and you roll the dice on Berrios.
  24. Brock Beauchamp
    BTW, I highly recommend John and Aaron's podcast today. Both are kinda in line with my thinking, though I'd give up Rosario (unlike John) but would keep Gibson (unlike Aaron). Not because I love Gibson so much but because the Twins' chances in 2015 bottom out without Kyle in the rotation. http://twinsdaily.com/topic/19298-article-gleeman-the-geek-episode-205-troy-tulowitzki-mayor-of-speculation-city/
  25. Brock Beauchamp
    I'm not against giving up "maybes". Hell, I'm all for giving up a few maybes if it fixes a position of need. It's going to take a lot more than "maybes" to get Tulo. Pick two of May, Gibson, Sano, Buxton, Berrios. That's what it will probably require.
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