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Brock Beauchamp

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Everything posted by Brock Beauchamp

  1. Brock Beauchamp
    You don't build playoff teams by selling your best assets for fifty cents on the dollar.
  2. Brock Beauchamp
    It's stupid because if you have a bunch of money today, it will be a much larger pile of money tomorrow if you follow some pretty basic steps. If you offered me $500,000 today or $50,000 per year for 20 years ($1m total), I'd take the $500k every time because I could turn it into way more than $1m very easily. And that's even if you're paying me double the amount over time and doesn't even include inflation expenses or anything of the sort. If you're offering me a 1:1 dollar ratio either front-loaded or back-loaded, I'm going to take the front-loading because it's so much better for me financially. And you'd think at least one agent in pro sports would be able to explain this concept to his client.
  3. Brock Beauchamp
    I get the team financial side of the argument but it doesn't hold much weight with me. Teams often throw $5m at a utility player in hopes he will provide 200 not-terrible plate appearances in a season. Dishing $500,000 extra to a player to add literally tens of millions of payroll flexibility (and competitiveness, therefore additional revenue) in a front-loaded contract should offset that concern and then some and then some more. Just fielding one more postseason game or extending a division race by a week will deliver the team so much more revenue than inflation costs, not only in immediate revenue from the game(s) but also through increased tickets sales early the following season. The player thing is just stupid. That's what agents are for, to explain what it's stupid. I'm not saying you're wrong about the players' attitudes regarding pay, I'm just saying it's really stupid (and you know why it's stupid). I'm not saying this is something teams should do all the time. No one cares about a front-loaded Escobar contract. But front-loading Sano and Buxton could mean the Twins are competitive in 2023 versus selling off and riding out the remainder of bad contracts.
  4. Brock Beauchamp
    Yes, this. De Leon is not, say, Mark Prior. He's not a "mechanically perfect" prospect who was elite and had no real injury history. De Leon is an old Jose Berrios not only lacking Berrios' durability but the fact that he (still) hasn't pitched anything close to a full season is a red flag. That's a huge gamble. Sure, even Prior and his "perfect mechanics" bombed out due to injury. It can happen to anybody. There is an inherent risk in any pitching prospect... but then there are guys like De Leon, who are good (not great) and have a fair amount of baggage coming along with them. And when taking on those guys, you ask for more because of that additional baggage. I would have liked to pick up De Leon last winter plus another prospect or two. But De Leon isn't some kind of savior. He doesn't even have the upside of Meyer, IMO, which is why I keep bringing up Alex. De Leon peaks around 92mph. That's not super impressive, no matter how good his breaking stuff may be. Today's game is all about velocity and that's another black mark against De Leon. He's older, less durable, and throws more slowly than Berrios.
  5. Brock Beauchamp
    They pretty much never happen and, for the life of me, I do not understand why. It's a win for everybody. The player gets their money early and can grow that money, the team gets some financial flexibility going later in the contract (but takes a small inflation hit but not enough to really worry about).
  6. Brock Beauchamp
    Completely agreed on Sano, which is part of the reason he's a bit down the list. I suspect he'll expect to get paid in a big way and, to be frank, his performance over the course of a full season has not yet lived up to that expectation. He's good, but far from great.
  7. Brock Beauchamp
    Yep. What’s Alex Meyer’s floor again?
  8. Brock Beauchamp
    My preference goes in this order: 1. Buxton (duh) 2. Berrios (duh) 3. Rosario (the old fogey of the group, still could be had relatively cheaply) 4. Sano (duh) 5. Kepler (I guess, don't see a real rush here) 6. Dozier (no)
  9. Brock Beauchamp
    I’m calling it a win because the Twins made the postseason, Dozier posted 5 fWAR, and De Leon barely pitched 40 innnings in the minors. That, by pretty much every definition of the word, is a win. But, as I've said for months, the book is not closed on De Leon... but right now, it looks pretty bad. De Leon was drafted in June of 2013 as a 21 year old. He has pitched 406 innings in those five seasons. Jose Berrios, drafted one season prior to De Leon and as an 18 year old (so his innings were monitored for a few years), has pitched 795 innings. One year extra, nearly double the innings pitched.
  10. Brock Beauchamp
    Yes, they declined the Dodgers' offer and it's damned near impossible to say they made the wrong decision thus far.
  11. Brock Beauchamp
    That’s a bit of a strawman. All I’m saying is that this org would look a hell of a lot different if even one of them projected to be an adequate #3. That’s a relatively low bar to set.
  12. Brock Beauchamp
    I agree that pitchers are a quantity game but I believe in collecting that quantity in round two or later. It's part of the reason why I was such a fan of the Twins' last draft.
  13. Brock Beauchamp
    Sure, the reality is that getting a good reliever from almost any pick is a decent return on the pick. But that’s not your goal with the fifth or sixth pick or wherever Jay landed. Jay and Stewart are part of the reason why I’ve come around on the idea of avoiding arms at the top of the draft.
  14. Brock Beauchamp
    Missing on Jay in the sense that he was drafted to be a starter and will not start games in Minnesota. He can still be valuable, just not as valuable as his draft placement.
  15. Brock Beauchamp
    For starters, it'd be nice if they stuck to their own threshold by spending 52% of revenue on payroll. They've been way under that number for six years now. I don't expect the Twins to take a loss on the team in a season. But the reality is that they've been pocketing tens of millions of dollars per season since moving to Target Field and it's time to repay the fans by picking up the required pieces to turn this team into a legitimate contender. I don't expect them to field a $150m payroll. I'd be happy with $125m right now. After all, I'm one of the people who is paying for that nice new stadium that allows them to make that profit.
  16. Brock Beauchamp
    That’s not exactly what I said. They’ve been running with a very low payroll for quite some time. It’s be nice if they chose to sacrifice profits for a season or two after a half decade of big profits but it’s pretty apparent they’re not willing to do that.
  17. Brock Beauchamp
    The only reason I can think the Padres would be interested is because their MLB team is not very good and most of their organizational depth (which is pretty good) is still in the low minors. But that seems like a bit of a stretch me.
  18. Brock Beauchamp
    They've proven time and time again they're not going to do that so I don't see the point in getting upset about it anymore. They've chosen to run this team at a profit - which is beyond irritating at times - but that's just a cold, hard reality of the situation.
  19. Brock Beauchamp
    Sure, they want to win. Their fanbase wants them to win. But "all or nothing" is a frustrating way to be a fan of anything. Personally, I enjoyed the hell out of the 2017 season and the relatively meager 85 wins from Minnesota. If I can't enjoy the process and only celebrate the result, I'll be a truly happy sports fan once every couple of decades. Do what you can to get there and give yourself a legitimate chance to win it all. That's all I can ask. Whether you get that 63rd out or fail at 62 is not going to dictate whether you succeed or fail.
  20. Brock Beauchamp
    Closers are overrated. I think we can all agree that Molitor would be a better manager if he looked a lot more like Terry Francona. Andrew Miller is not Cleveland's "closer". He's their best bullpen arm. He entered the game in the ninth inning six times in 2017. He had 57 appearances.
  21. Brock Beauchamp
    Well, they're not going to spend $30m in free agency unless they liquidate some valuable players (Escobar, maybe Gibson is "valuable" if you squint). Removing Gibson maybe gets you to $25m. That's still not enough to pay two relievers and a starter.
  22. Brock Beauchamp
    It's a single offseason. I'd be satisfied with one and one. I don't think this team really needs two relievers given how some guys stepped forward late last season and how there are intriguing arms in the upper minors. I don't think the Twins have the payroll flexibility to get a good starter and two good relievers (the upcoming handbook has hard numbers on payroll and there isn't $30m to spare... maybe $15-20m, tops).
  23. Brock Beauchamp
    It's hard to say their time was wasted. They made the postseason a bunch of times, some years when they had the best pitcher in all of baseball. And they still lost. If you have two MVP-caliber position players, the best pitcher in baseball, and you still lose in the first round... *shrug*
  24. Brock Beauchamp
    I still think chasing an "ace" as the cure to all the Twins' woes is unnecessary. Go get a good pitcher, period. Sure, we'd all like an "ace" but what the Twins need is a reliable, above average arm. If you find an ace, it'll likely come from inside the organization, either via trade and development or draft/sign and development. But how much better would the 2017 Twins have been if you replaced Colon's and Santiago's starts (net 0 fWAR) with a 3 fWAR pitcher? Not only do you bank something around three wins but you ease up the load on the bullpen and allow your better relievers to pitch innings. Between Colon and Santiago, they had EIGHT starts where they went fewer than four innings. And most of us said Colon "wasn't that bad" (and he wasn't). Making that one swap could net the Twins as many as 5-6 wins on the season, not counting any potential improvement and/or callups from pitchers already in the organization. Aim for an ace pitcher in FA or trade but be ready to fall back quickly and pick up a good pitcher if that plan doesn't appear to be feasible. The last thing I want to see the Twins do is go big on Darvish, battle with five other teams for his services, lose out to the Cubs in January, and then miss a chance to pick up a lesser pitcher like Lynn (just an example, not crazy about him but he'd be an adequate choice).
  25. Brock Beauchamp
    If you're good enough to be one of the best regular season teams and also make it to the World Series, you have close to a coin flip's chance of winning the series. I'm not going to say Cleveland is a failure because they failed to get one more out after the ~60 outs they already got in the 2016 Series.
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