Twins Minor League Report (9/6): Playoff Hopes Dashed

Seems like a strict pitch count might be a little severe. I was clicking back and forth from the Twins to Saints. watching Morris pitch. He was dominant. If it was necessary to take him out around 65 pitches, which I have done many times as a manager, there surely could have been a little wiggle room (up to 7 pitches). On the other hand, perhaps there is zero interest in seeing Morris finish the inning making that pitch limit absolute. I just felt bad that his line included a run scored when the Iowa Cubs had no chance in hell of actually scoring against Morris. 

It sure looks like Eeles deserves to be in our top 30 prospects list with the year he's had. If he continues to play like this we could see him with the Twins next year. I think they should decide whether he's an IF or an OF though. For outfielders we have ERod, Rosario, Keirsey, Mkusker?

IF we've got Severino, Eeles, Helman. Good crop of hitters doing well in the minors. If a few of these guys can out in the majors we should have some legitimate depth, which is huge on a team like ours with so much injury potential.

Going to be a lot of starting pitching depth at AAA next season, which is great. Not going to be much room for a retread veteran there, which seems fine. Wonder if Lewis might start the season in AA just because of the crowding (and the fact that he missed a fair amount of time this year). Assuming no FA signings, the MLB rotation could be: Lopez, Ober, Ryan, SWR, and Paddack with AAA having Festa, Matthews, Morris, Raya, and Lewis (I think Varland moves to the bullpen from the jump next season). That's quite a bit of starting pitching depth. (and we still have guys like Culpepper, Adams, Jones, and Nowlin coming along)

Good progress by the hitters this season in the minors, but the injuries were a bummer. Jenkins is the real deal, I keep having to remind myself that it's his first full pro season, because he's not acting like it. Thought GG and Doncon did fine in Cedar Rapids at age 20. Hopefully Keaschall comes back strong from the surgery; he was doing great before getting hurt. Emma will be the first OF called up next season, I think, and he has star power.

Always interesting how you can have a ton of talent in the minors and the teams don't win, but guys cycle through quickly at times.

4 minutes ago, jmlease1 said:

MLB rotation could be: Lopez, Ober, Ryan, SWR, and Paddack

You could be correct. If Paddack is in the rotation in April you will know the Twins are not serious about early season games. Paddack can be a fair option as a relief pitcher but his first promising experiences with the Padres were long ago. All of Festa, Matthews, and Morris have passed The Sheriff as options for the starting rotation. Injuries happen; it is what it is. The Twins gambled on Paddack and he is now the debt they own. It wasn't a bad gamble either if he can be a fair middle relief pitcher.

I was hoping that the new recruits from the draft would be enough to secure a playoff berth for Fort Meyers

48 minutes ago, jmlease1 said:

Going to be a lot of starting pitching depth at AAA next season, which is great. Not going to be much room for a retread veteran there, which seems fine. Wonder if Lewis might start the season in AA just because of the crowding (and the fact that he missed a fair amount of time this year). Assuming no FA signings, the MLB rotation could be: Lopez, Ober, Ryan, SWR, and Paddack with AAA having Festa, Matthews, Morris, Raya, and Lewis (I think Varland moves to the bullpen from the jump next season). That's quite a bit of starting pitching depth. (and we still have guys like Culpepper, Adams, Jones, and Nowlin coming along)

Good progress by the hitters this season in the minors, but the injuries were a bummer. Jenkins is the real deal, I keep having to remind myself that it's his first full pro season, because he's not acting like it. Thought GG and Doncon did fine in Cedar Rapids at age 20. Hopefully Keaschall comes back strong from the surgery; he was doing great before getting hurt. Emma will be the first OF called up next season, I think, and he has star power.

Always interesting how you can have a ton of talent in the minors and the teams don't win, but guys cycle through quickly at times.

 

I'm not sure we will have that much starting pitching depth. My guess is Paddack and Varland will be in the bullpen. That leaves a rotation of Lopez, Ryan, Ober, SWR and Festa. That leaves our depth in AAA as Zebby and Morris. Raya doesn't look like he's ready for a promotion after putting up an ERA over 5 this year. Lewis has missed so much time, I'm guessing he starts in AA along with Culpeper and some of our other young guys. Doesn't leave us with too many good options in AAA for when Injury inevitably hits our MLB rotation. I think we need at least one major league starter, not to mention the bullpen needs some serious work as well.

1 minute ago, LambchoP said:

I think we need at least one major league starter, not to mention the bullpen needs some serious work as well.

Sounds good to me but these guys will be invites because .... no money for free agents. I believe $135 million next season is a realistic ceiling with $115M the floor.

4 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

Sounds good to me but these guys will be invites because .... no money for free agents. I believe $135 million next season is a realistic ceiling with $115M the floor.

My guess is something similar to this year. A bunch of waiver wire and DFA pickups, minor league deals. Maybe we sign one or two major league arms to a one year deal of 1-2 million, but that'll probably be all. Everyone saw how this kind of plan worked out this year lol. We have a good top of the bullpen with Duran, Jax, Alcala, Sands and Stewart. Henriquez has looked pretty good so far. If we get Topa healthy and then throw in Paddack and Varland I think the only true need are a couple of solid lefties. Theilbar and Okert will be gone and Funderburk should be AAA depth.

Now with a decent sample size at AAA with Statcast data, I'm not sure Morris' slider is quite as good as some outlets had it, but the changeup and curveball have looked like legitimate pitches rather than just show-me pitches.  He also hasn't had the R/L splits you would expect from a guy with a great slider; he's pretty equal against both sides.  It's annoying that they haven't given him a cutter, so it groups both his cutter and slider together so I can't see stats for just the slider.

End of the minor league season, and one of the sad parts about that is considering the futures of some of the players in the system.  At the lower end of the minors, they always have another step up to look forward to, but when you reach AAA level,  for many players there is no more upward mobility.

Looking at the Saints players by age:

24 years old  

Patric WInkel, Yunior Severino, Payton Ecles, Jair Camargo, Travis Adams, Christian MacLeod

25 years old

Alex Isola, Maddux Houghton

26 years old

Anthony Prato, Carson McCusker, Will Holland, Brent Headrick

27 year old

Chris WIlliams, DaShawn Keirsey, Michael Helmon, Josh Winder

To reach that level of baseball, you were almost always the best or amongst the best players on your team:  little league, Babe Ruth, high school, VFW, college, even professional baseball.  But that next step is a difficult one.  I expect a few of these names to move organizations for new opportunities, and a few might have more AAA level time to play out.  I simply wish them all the best.