Twins Minor League Report (5/21): Walker Powers Wings

Walker has struck out in 50% of his at bats right now in Rochester.  Slow down and read that again... 50% 

I like the fact that his walk rate is rising, but he still has to get that K rate under control.  He's on the 40 man, so giving him a 15 day stint once or twice this season might be nice, but I still think we need to temper those expectations a bit.  He needs time in Rochester, and he needs to bring that K rate down.  Hopefully, this is the start of something clicking with him and we will see some better numbers (at least in terms of Ks) over the next few months.

Walker has struck out in 50% of his at bats right now in Rochester.  Slow down and read that again... 50% 

 

I like the fact that his walk rate is rising, but he still has to get that K rate under control.  He's on the 40 man, so giving him a 15 day stint once or twice this season might be nice, but I still think we need to temper those expectations a bit.  He needs time in Rochester, and he needs to bring that K rate down.  Hopefully, this is the start of something clicking with him and we will see some better numbers (at least in terms of Ks) over the next few months.

I think Walker's going to have "Brett" dropped as his middle name and have his name changed to Adam "Bring that K Rate Down and add more" Walkers.

And accentuating the positive, and being hopeful that this is the start of something clicking, last night he only had 2 Ks in 5 PAs, cutting that 50% K-rate just a smidge.

Perhaps it's not such a no-brainer that Gonsalves should have been advanced to AA by now.

Yeah, because small sample sizes and expectations of perfection on every single outing should be the ultimate determinants in promoting anyone, particularly your most talented prospects.

His defense is below par, so unless he's ready to absolutely rake at the MLB level it may be that he gives up as many runs with his glove as he earns with his bat.

After seeing him play a couple games in the OF, not great, but he's actually much better than a few who have manned the OF for the Twins this year.

Yeah, because small sample sizes and expectations of perfection on every single outing should be the ultimate determinants in promoting anyone, particularly your most talented prospects.

I really don't get the Gonsalves consternation (on both sides). SSS was saying promote him, and now he's had a couple not so good starts.  Overall, he's been fine and will probably see a promotion within the next month baring a complete collapse or injury.  I have no problems waiting beyond a small sample for a promotion.  Anyone can be hot for a month, nothing wrong with making sure that it isn't simply that.

I think his point was that Gonsalves already has a high walk rate at High A ball but is getting away with it due to the competition level and pitcher-friendly league, making his numbers look better than his actual performance. If the Twins are trying to get him to throw better strikes to avoid a blowup at AA then putting up a game like this shows he has work to do still. Walking 4 per 9 and rarely getting past 6 innings is a potential recipe for trouble when jumping from High A to AA. It's just speculation, but it seems logical.

On the numbers thing, see below. On the innings thing, I don't think getting past 6 IPs is a fair minor league standard to hang many hats upon. The Twins have a long term plan in place for a projected total number of innings over the season for each pitcher- they usually get pulled after 5 or 6 innings whether they are cruising or struggling.

I really don't get the Gonsalves consternation (on both sides). SSS was saying promote him, and now he's had a couple not so good starts.  Overall, he's been fine and will probably see a promotion within the next month baring a complete collapse or injury.  I have no problems waiting beyond a small sample for a promotion.  Anyone can be hot for a month, nothing wrong with making sure that it isn't simply that.

Gonsalves had 80 innings in A+ ball in 2015. His comparable numbers this season thus far are dramatically improved. His BB/9 has (his latest 2 outings nothwithstanding) improved by over 1 BB per 9 IP (much closer to 3 than 4) and his K/9 has improved nearly by 2 Ks per 9 IP.

I would think that most everyone is agreeable to a June promotion. The issue is fans seeing one so-so outing and determining from said outing that he's "not ready yet." And the same goes for management, where sometimes "must be consistently dominating" is MLB gatekeeper code for seemingly unattainable expectations of "perfection". Whatever the case may be, the present way the Twins have been developing their arms- (Read- Slowwwly)- has not produced very many major league ready quality producers. In this particular case, streaks of wildness, if that is indeed what has happened to Gonsalves of late, can be sufficiently dealt with at either A+ or AA ball. I don't think anyone disagrees that Gonsalves has the stuff and the makeup to tackle the next level almost immediately, do we?

His defense needs work and he will probably always be a DH and part time OF. He also SO way too much, and probably always will. But even with a ton of SO, if he can keep nudging his BB up, he may be a real 3 part outcome player at the ML level. And those are valuable too.

Can you see him hitting in the .250 range with a .325-.330 OB, 30+ doubles and 25-30+ HR?

It's still hard no to be excited about him. He's produced at every level he's ever been at.

His defense needs work and he will probably always be a DH and part time OF. He also SO way too much, and probably always will. But even with a ton of SO, if he can keep nudging his BB up, he may be a real 3 part outcome player at the ML level. And those are valuable too. Can you see him hitting in the .250 range with a .325-.330 OB, 30+ doubles and 25-30+ HR? It's still hard no to be excited about him. He's produced at every level he's ever been at.

I'd say that's a pretty decent player.  I think if he can cut down the Ks though, he can be better than that to be very honest.

The issue with looking at season averages is it masks the fact that in half his performances he's been pretty solid and in the other half he scuffled with control. This isn't one bad outing he's being judged on, it's just the one where mild concerns over his control were validated a little bit. In 4 out of 8 starts he's gone 6 or fewer innings with 3+ walks. The hits/ERA look good because he's facing less experienced hitters in friendly ballparks that can't consistently punish him. Based on his elevated pitch counts, even in most of his good starts, I assume he's trying to nibble & throw junk and inexperienced hitters are getting themselves out. For that reason alone I think a taste of AA could be a good test and possibly a wake-up call that he needs to throw better strikes. 

Scuffling with control is par for the course at this level- so much of what he is doing in real time situations is "big picture" stuff- a part of his training regimen and program- ie, getting a better feel and mastering his 3rd and 4th pitches, experimenting with situational pitch sequencing, what to throw early/late in the count, etc. The point is, that short of his very first inning pitched and this latest game, he has dominated A+ level hitting in 2016 and is dominating a level that he is repeating.

On the 5th and 6th inning finishes, this is also part of the plan. He's actually improved on that count thus far, averaging close to 6 innings per outing this year and only a little over 5.5 innings per outing last year. I would think that one of the long-term goals was to continue to build season-long arm strength and stamina by increasing on his 135 IP and 24 starts in 2015- perhaps closer to 175 IP and 28-30 starts by season-end- thus a lot of 5 or 6 inning starts to make the plan work.

Finally, we concur that a challenge very soon at the next level might be exactly what Stephen needs to accelerate his development and maturity.

I tnik most believe he deserves to stay in AAA for a while and continue to get better.  It's just great to see him continue to do what he does best.  Lead the league in HRs.  That Rochester line up is exciting.  Fun watching all those guys grow up together.

FWIW- a small ray of sunshine. Three of the four affiliates are either in first place or in the case of the Rochester, a half game out of first. It's not exactly like we envisioned, but for the time being... What an outfield with the current four guys.

Speaking of four guys, if Meyer quickly bounces back, along with Berrios, of course, and the surprising Wheeler and perhaps the steadying veteran presence of Milone, you have 4 starters who could soon possibly impact the Twins.

And don't forget about Chargois in the pen- nothing short of phenomenal so far in AAA.