Twins Expected to Add Three Top 50 International Prospects in January

7 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

Some of it is the kind of strategy you want to take. Sure, the Twins have one of the top signing pools, but the top guys are going to cost 2/3 of it. Do you want to take one big swing or do you want to take a bunch of medium swings? Most of these kids are 16 years old. You get some Cubans who are older and some Japanese like Shohei and Roki as well. But mostly they're 16-year-olds.

2015 sums it up pretty well. The top 5 (according to MLB.com to stick with the rankings provided in the piece) that year were Yadier Alvarez, Vladimir Gutierrez, Yusniel Diaz, Alfredo Rodriguez, and Eddy Martinez. Not exactly a who's who, right?

Well #7 that year was Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Not crazy low, but clearly better than those first 5. Then at 19 you get Andres Gimenez. Clearly much too low. Leody Taveras hasn't been anything special but has an MLB career so #22 is too low compared to those top 5. But #25 and #30 that year are names I'm pretty sure you've heard of...Juan Soto and Fernando Tatis Jr.

It's hard as heck to accurately scout the 18-22 year old high school and college kids for the draft and 16 year olds is a whole other level of difficult. Rodriguez was the #12 prospect when they signed him. So, no, not #24, but also not top 5. And there's 3 catchers on their top 50. #'s 17, 31, and 41.

Having the most money doesn't guarantee you whoever you want. There's also some politicking and relationship building. 

Money isn't the reason they aren't getting Roki Sasaki. That's an entirely different situation.

This is the question....roll the dice on one highly ranked 16 year old (seriously, how would we know much), or on three medium ones? I guess more darts is likely good. Also, athletes (still annoyed they signed a big 1b type one year, sigh). 

Fangraphs has their ratings up. They aren't kind to Minnesota....

2 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

Langerhans first four paragraphs basically say that there isn't enough information on these guys and there are unranked guys that are probably better than some of these guys but he can only go off what they got paid in bonus. He also indicates his info is coming from 'insiders' who obviously won't be objective. It's not like amature hobbiest scouts are down there watching in these countries, all the scouts and evaluators have a vested interest in either specific players or specific teams and that's who's feeding Langarhans the information.

I like Fangraphs, but doing their FV for these players seems like an exercise of the unknown. I don't think it's very reliable. Or even at all reliable.

Agreed. 

7 minutes ago, Dman said:

Yeah I saw that. too.  MLB.com shows they got 4 guys in their top 50 after adding the player that was predicted to go to the Dodgers.  Looking at it that way it feels like they did well.  BA just ranks via Salary which makes some sense as those are the players teams feel have the most talent to make it. 

Also BA notes the Twins got one of the better pitchers in this class.  They say the following "Venezuelan righthander Santiago Castellanos has been a significant up-arrow pitcher. He’s a 6-foot righthander whose stuff has taken off over the past year to where he has become one of the best pitchers in the class. He’s 16 with outstanding arm speed and already reaching 97 mph with a lively fastball. He shows feel to spin a hard curveball with good depth and will flash an occasional changeup."  So for those of us who think the Twins should find better international pitching it looks like they checked that box this year.

I like the class as they chose guys with contact skills over power.  They got a power hitter that might be a 5 tool player.  They stole a speedy outfielder from the Dodgers and the Twins seem allergic to speed guys, And the cherry on top one of the better pitchers so far for this class. 

I do agree with @nicksaviking and @chpettit19 that all these projections mean very little, but they took a fair number bites at the top 50 to 100 players and got a well rounded group.  That's about as much as I could ask even if this class isn't as loaded with top tier talent as most years.

agreed on all points. These are, largely, lottery tickets....though the highest dollar hitters do become good players at a much higher rate than the random players.....

2 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

Yeah, at this point, I think the most reliable ranking would be based exclusively on the bonus payout. Somebody who has actually seen them play has convinced their boss to spend that amount of money on the player. It's the best estimate we got and the only concrete intel we have. Everything else is second hand information and unverified rumors at best, even for trusted baseball writers.

Also, these deals are somewhat sealed a year or two ago.....so they might have been better or worse looking as (yikes) 14 year olds. It kind of sounds gross, but this is life changing money for a lot of these guys.