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    The Twins Need to Make Room for Walker Jenkins Before the Trade Deadline

    Minnesota's top prospect is proving he's ready, and the front office shouldn't wait for an injury to create an opportunity.

    Cody Christie
    Image courtesy of William Parmeter

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    The Twins are approaching one of the most important stretches of their season. With the club battling for an American League Wild Card spot, every roster decision carries more weight than it did in April or May. The front office is expected to spend the next several days evaluating outside additions, particularly for a bullpen that has struggled throughout the year.

    However, the biggest offensive addition available to Minnesota may already be wearing a St. Paul Saints uniform. Walker Jenkins has done everything the organization could reasonably ask since returning from injury. Instead of waiting for a perfect opening, the Twins should be finding a way to get one of baseball's best prospects into their lineup before the MLB Trade Deadline.

    Jenkins returned to Triple-A roughly a month ago, after recovering from the shoulder injury he suffered crashing into the outfield wall while making a catch. Since coming back, he has looked every bit like the hitter scouts expected when Minnesota selected him fifth overall in the 2023 MLB Draft.

    Over the last 28 days, Jenkins owns a .929 OPS. Over the last week, he's been even better, posting a .643 slugging percentage and a 1.055 OPS. Those numbers become even more impressive when considering the context. Jenkins is accomplishing all of this during his age-21 season, while facing competition that is more than five years older on average in the International League. At some point, there isn't much more for him to prove.

    This week's Baseball America profile offered another encouraging glimpse into why evaluators remain so bullish on Jenkins. One of the biggest takeaways centered on his elite swing decisions and bat-to-ball ability against pitches in the strike zone. He has just seven whiffs against four-seam fastballs all season, and nearly all of those swings came on elevated pitches that finished above the strike zone. That type of zone control isn't common, especially for a player this young.

    Major-league pitchers will undoubtedly challenge him differently. Fastballs won't come nearly as often once opponents recognize his ability to handle velocity. Instead, he'll need to adjust to a steady diet of breaking balls and off-speed pitches. Still, the underlying skills suggest the transition could happen quicker than many rookie debuts. Jenkins doesn't chase often, rarely misses pitches he should hit, and consistently controls the strike zone. Those traits tend to translate regardless of level.

    The frustrating part is that the Twins don't appear to have a natural opening for him. Byron Buxton returned from the injured list earlier this week, prompting Minnesota to option infielder Tristan Gray back to Triple-A. The club is also carrying three catchers after Ryan Jeffers returned from injury. Because Alex Jackson is out of minor-league options, the Twins understandably didn't want to risk losing him on waivers.

    That leaves a crowded bench featuring Victor Caratini, Alex Jackson, Austin Martin, and Alan Roden. Martin and Roden are the only players with minor-league options remaining, making them the easiest roster moves if Minnesota chooses to promote Jenkins. As things currently stand, though, it feels like Jenkins's path requires someone else getting hurt.

    That shouldn't be the standard. The Twins have reached the point in the season where roster spots should be earned by performance, not protected by circumstance. Martin has struggled to provide much offensive impact recently, posting a .583 OPS over the last two weeks despite being deployed primarily in favorable platoon matchups. His versatility remains valuable, but if Minnesota is searching for ways to inject more offense into a lineup fighting for a postseason berth, Jenkins offers a significantly higher ceiling.

    Replacing Martin with Jenkins wouldn't solve every offensive concern overnight. It would, however, give the Twins another hitter capable of changing games instead of simply filling innings. Waiting for an injury to create an opening feels unnecessarily passive.

    If Minnesota believes Jenkins is one of the organization's cornerstone players (and every indication suggests they do), there is value in letting him experience the major leagues before the trade deadline. It gives him time to adjust before September, allows the coaching staff to evaluate where he fits best, and provides the front office with a better understanding of what additional moves might still be necessary.

    The Twins are searching for ways to improve their roster over the next week. External additions may grab the headlines, but the organization already has one of its most talented players waiting just down Interstate 94. The challenge isn't determining whether Jenkins is ready. It's deciding whether the Twins are willing to make room for him before someone else forces the decision.


    Should the Twins look to promote Jenkins? Leave a comment and start the discussion.


    Interested in learning more about the Minnesota Twins' top prospects? Check out our comprehensive top prospects list that includes up-to-date stats, articles and videos about every prospect, scouting reports, and more!

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    Featured Comments

    21 hours ago, Patzky said:

    5) Waiting for villains to die is bad karma and never works.

    Yes. Very bad karma. Also, the post assumes that it’s just Scott Boras doing all this by himself like he’s handling 100’s of players from his office in the strip mall in between the nail salon and the sandwich shop.  That it isn’t a giant conglomeration of representatives all working with the same philosophy that continues long after Scott Boras steps away.

    14 hours ago, jmlease1 said:

    There's a case to be made for fans in smaller markets that Boras is a villain, because 1) his only concern is maximizing the dollar value for his clients, 2) he has a known preference for targeting the bigger markets for his players because of #1, 3) he uses his influence with his clients to try and influence how the CBA's are structured, which have arguably tilted towards the bigger markets and star players vs a more balanced structure. In a Scott Boras world, not only is there never a salary cap, but there's no luxury tax and no revenue sharing from it either. His preferences are always so that a team like the Mets or the Dodgers will set new records for FA signings.

    While I have no interest in protecting owner's pockets, and I always prefer to see more revenue going to players vs owners...I also would like to see a system in baseball where teams like the Twins are able to be more competitive in the FA market, be able to re-sign homegrown players to competitive contracts without nuking the rest of the roster, etc. Boras is not helpful to that goal, IMHO. He doesn't want the Twins signing Walker Jenkins to a market-rate contract; he wants Walker Jenkins' next contract to re-set the market.

    More teams having more money to spend means more of his guys get more of that money. I would imagine he’s in favor of no cap. A floor, and teams being forced to spend that money on free agents. He wants what’s best for his players so that 5% he gets is more regardless of team or market.

    22 hours ago, mike8791 said:

    Another positive in bringing up Jenkins - it would make trading Larnach more palatable.  I previously thought if the FO wanted to stay competitive, they could only afford to trade one of Larnach or Jeffers.  Our offense has too many holes to trade both.  Jeffers should be traded(unless Twins can resign him which at this point is a non-starter), but with Jenkins slotted in LF or RF, Jenkins and Roden could fill in well at the corners.  Of course, trading makes sense only if the Twins obtained near major league prospects.

    Why is re-signing Jeffers a non starter?  Yes, you have a couple of future guys in the system.  One of whom has yet to take a professional swing.  Both are at least a couple years away.  Trade Jeffers and you're left with two, at best, average catchers.  Sign Jeffers to a three year deal.  Will cost somewhere between $11-$15 million per year.  Not excessive.  Tom talks about doing things differently, here' his chance.  Move Larnach to make room for the young studs.  Make it happen.

    21 hours ago, jimmyc said:

    They will appropriately leave him off the 40-man roster.  Anyone on the 40-man will be unable to play in the minors during the impending MLB strike next spring.  More than many others, he needs to play baseball.

    We know Boras won't allow an extension, unless it is an overpay. So I am not bringing him up with the upcoming lockout. Jenkins needs to add more strength and stay healthy for longer than 20 games at a time. 

    20 hours ago, DJL44 said:

    Jenkins undeniably has more upside potential than Roden. I think he needs to spend more time working to realize that upside in AAA.

    It would be nice if the Twins would let a guy develop a little longer and then be able stay when he finally gets here, instead of rushing him onto the roster, expect him to rescue a team perpetually struggling with mediocrity, then bouncing him back to St. Paul when he doesn’t immediately live up to expectations.

    17 minutes ago, mluebker said:

    It would be nice if the Twins would let a guy develop a little longer and then be able stay when he finally gets here, instead of rushing him onto the roster, expect him to rescue a team perpetually struggling with mediocrity, then bouncing him back to St. Paul when he doesn’t immediately live up to expectations.

    The twins are not known for rushing players. Cleveland has seven rookies.... The twins?

    Walker Jenkins pretty much = Austin Martin with a little more pop, but endless injury woes from a stat sheet standpoint. He projects as below average at the plate in MLB with passable defense in CF because he supposedly has better instincts, but best suited to right field.

    I want to make it clear. I'm not saying Walker Jenkins couldn't turn into an absolute stud. I'm saying there's no reason to expect he's actually ready to be an every day contributor to a MLB team "today" based on the production he's shown compared to other players in the same league he plays in. In the International League, he's better than an average AAA hitter. He's not raking. He's not dominating. He's not in the top quartile of hitters there. He's wRC+ 118, ranked 80th of 286 players with 100+ PA, which is 72nd percentile.
    top 5% = 145+ (these guys are dominating)
    top 10% = 134+ (production says these guys are ready, advanced metrics might disagree)
    Sabato = 133
    Fedko = 129
    Kreidler = 128
    Wallner = 127
    top 20% = 124+ (these guys are probably ready)
    Culpepper = 122
    Ross = 121
    Jenkins = 118
    top 30% = 115+ (these guys are "better than average" minor league hitters)
    top 40% = 109+ (pedestrian, little case for being MLB contributors at the plate)
    median = 103 

    The Twins don't really have a place for him to play right now. He needs to be playing every day, which I think is absolutely critical to a player without years of MLB experience who can just get back into form quickly. My honest expectation of Jenkins' 95% ceiling is peak Max Kepler a24-a29. wRC+ 105ish, elite defense in right field, 2.5-3.0 WAR. I don't see anything in his performance up to now which suggests his ceiling is higher, that's all optimism.

    1 hour ago, bean5302 said:

    I want to make it clear. I'm not saying Walker Jenkins couldn't turn into an absolute stud. I'm saying there's no reason to expect he's actually ready to be an every day contributor to a MLB team "today" based on the production he's shown compared to other players in the same league he plays in. In the International League, he's better than an average AAA hitter. He's not raking. He's not dominating. He's not in the top quartile of hitters there. He's wRC+ 118, ranked 80th of 286 players with 100+ PA, which is 72nd percentile.
    top 5% = 145+ (these guys are dominating)
    top 10% = 134+ (production says these guys are ready, advanced metrics might disagree)
    Sabato = 133
    Fedko = 129
    Kreidler = 128
    Wallner = 127
    top 20% = 124+ (these guys are probably ready)
    Culpepper = 122
    Ross = 121
    Jenkins = 118
    top 30% = 115+ (these guys are "better than average" minor league hitters)
    top 40% = 109+ (pedestrian, little case for being MLB contributors at the plate)
    median = 103 

    The Twins don't really have a place for him to play right now. He needs to be playing every day, which I think is absolutely critical to a player without years of MLB experience who can just get back into form quickly. My honest expectation of Jenkins' 95% ceiling is peak Max Kepler a24-a29. wRC+ 105ish, elite defense in right field, 2.5-3.0 WAR. I don't see anything in his performance up to now which suggests his ceiling is higher, that's all optimism.

    Thank you for the detailed explanation of why this article is just wrong. I get tired of seeing this website ready to promote every prospect after they have a hot week.

    21 hours ago, bean5302 said:

    Walker Jenkins pretty much = Austin Martin with a little more pop, but endless injury woes from a stat sheet standpoint. He projects as below average at the plate in MLB with passable defense in CF because he supposedly has better instincts, but best suited to right field.

    Hmmm, Austin Martin is your comp? What was Austin Martin doing when he was 21? Oh he was in college? So he wasn’t holding his own in AAA hitting 274/380/445 with a 825 OPS as a better than passable CF’er against competition 5 years on average older than him? Interesting.

    23 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

    The twins are not known for rushing players. Cleveland has seven rookies.... The twins?

    The Twins seem to have a lot of prospects who end up on the roster as one dimensional players as the team tries to fill gaps. They struggle, then we all end up talking about how the Twins should try to trade them for other prospects. YMMV, but that’s what I’m seeing.

    1 hour ago, TNtwins85 said:

    Hmmm, Austin Martin is your comp? What was Austin Martin doing when he was 21? Oh he was in college? So he wasn’t holding his own in AAA hitting 274/380/445 with a 825 OPS as a better than passable CF’er against competition 5 years on average older than him? Interesting.

    Age is not nearly as relevant as years of experience in the minors at this point. This is Jenkins' 4th year in professional baseball. If he doesn't make it to the Twins this year, he'll officially be "slow" to get to MLB despite being the #5 overall pick. That's as pedestrian as his performance vs. other players in his league in the minors.

    Also, I'm not nearly as concerned with how old Walker Jenkins is vs. how will he perform as a professional baseball player in the future. Right now, today, if he were promoted to MLB, it's reasonable to expect Jenkins to perform similarly to how Austin Martin has over this year.




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