Seth's Preliminary Top 50 Twins Prospects: Part 5: (16-20)

Because starting pitchers are more valuable and if there's any chance he can be a starter, they should go with that. Also, once they brought O'Rourke up, he was the LOOGY. 

 

Now, most believe that Rogers will be a bullpen guy long term, in large part due to the Twins depth of mid-to-backend starters, but he's developing more as a starter than as a reliever because he's facing those same situations every start almost.

He holds zero value to the MLB roster, if he's never on the MLB roster or traded for someone that is. What are the odds he pitches on the MLB roster next year, as a SP vs a RP? Duensing has not been good, he costs actual money, I'd try Rogers. They know RP is a huge need, they have a guy sitting in AAA that could fill one of the roles.....

Probably. Guys who look like eventual utility infielders or fourth outfielders, or starting pitchers who will likely have to accept bullpen duty if they want to be in the majors, litter top-20s, even strong lists.

 

Think of it this way. How immensely strong would a farm system be, if the entire top 20 was entirely made up of "this guy projects as a starting first baseman, this guy projects as a starting second baseman, this guy projects as a front line starting pitcher, this guy..."? Practically a whole new competitive 25-man roster, including a few apparently qualified players riding the pine, if you'll just wait a few years.

 

Top 10, I'm probably with you, regarding backup catchers.

This sounds about right.  The 2012 and 2013 Twins systems were absolutely loaded.  Jason Parks said about the 2013 group that are #11-20 would be better than "3 or 4" teams 1-10.  But those lists still included back up catchers and relief pitchers.

also to take the pressure off the catcher rankings Situation... how close was Jean Carlos Arias to making the top 50? i believe we signed him last summer and he played way above expectations in DSL... 17 years old and hitting well is what i love to see

Arias will make my top 40 list, and so will Wander Javier, but they are not Catchers

The one Catcher who compares to Navaretto is another high Latin American pick a couple years ago, Rainis Silva.  Not sure whether he made Seth's list, but he is probably the best game caller and fielding C in the Twins' system (including the majors) with his bat trailing, but he is 19 and hitting better than Navaretto and just looks like a catcher...  Had him at 24 last year (and 10 of my list graduated this year,) interesting to see whether he will make Seth's list

Fair point, but what if he does take the step in 2016 and people think that he can be more than a backup catcher.

 

Also, what's wrong with being a backup catcher. If the Twins would have moved Butera to the bullpen, it's pretty likely he never makes the big leagues. As a backup catcher, and one of the smartest baseball players around, he's now over 5 years of MLB service time. He's considered valuable by MLB Insiders, front offices, players, coaches, etc. That's nothing to scoff at, even though  many chose to do so.

All fair rebuttal points, and definitely good food for thought. Five questions for your consideration to counter:

1) You mention some "people think" with regards to Navarretto, I'm assuming they helped in convincing you that there's more than currently meets the eye with him? Are these people inside the organization, or outside?

2) Drew Butera has accumulated all of -1.7 of bWAR in parts of 6 seasons- shouldn't we question, at least a little bit, all of these people who consider him having any more value than as a BP catcher?

3) Do you have any idea what Butera's highest Twins prospect ranking was?

4) If Butera was touching 94 in his Twins outing as a pitcher- and he has a 10.13 K/9 in his limited pitching duties- without ever taking the pitching thing seriously- who's to automatically dismiss what his chances were at becoming a MLB RP?

5) Doesn't every organization have at least a half dozen Eric Fryer's up and down their organizational chart who can get plugged in as the MLB back-up catcher at a moment's notice?  I'm still unconvinced that a guy with a back-up catcher ceiling should merit much fan excitement about that organization's great/deep farm system. Based on your rankings here, the Twins may very well have 2 back-up catchers in their Top 20. Hopefully, Turner builds on his second half and changes the ceiling projection for good. 

I still say your team's system isn't all that deep with back-up ceiling catchers in the Top 20 and RP-ceiling pitchers in the Top 10. 

Because Rogers would have been eaten alive by MLB batters perhaps?

Only one way to find out.  And I don't think anyone would argue that the MLB opportunity and need was there for the Twins to take the chance and find out. They obviously didn't know about Duffey until they were forced to do so in a numbers game.  And it's important to note that at one point (as I posted at the time), Rogers was 36/1 in K/BB vs. LH hitters.

Given all the pros who value Butera as much much more than a BP catcher, shouldn't we question, just a little bit, the use of bWAR as the be-all and end-all when discussing a player's value?

Feel free to do so.

In contrast, I am confident in what I've seen of him over his MLB career, that never having been rated in the Twins Top 30 prospect list was confirmed by what he's accomplished on the field.

I'll reply... these are just my opinions, so I don't care if people disagree. I would think people would. If we all agreed exactly the same on every prospect, what fun would that be. 

 

 

To be clear, my posts weren't intended to be antagonistic and argumentative, just... pointed... in my disagreements and differences of opinion about certain names and certain perceptions about the relative strengths/weaknesses in the Twins approach in the draft selection past the 1st round in the 2010s as well as the international FA strategies since the Twins hit the jackpot in 2009.

Your work in this area is greatly appreciated and indispensable to many of us, Seth. (Also appreciated is your willingness to respond and engage in this forum).

 

 

1.) no one is telling me where to rank people, but I'll take any opinions and listen to them. People I've talked to have talked about his defense and offensive potential... but mainly it's a gut feel. I don't think his ceiling is backup catcher. I think he can be a solid starter, someday. Maybe not. In fact, odds are against him, as they are all minor leaguers. 

 

2.) I mean, you can if you want... but he's been with the Twins, the Angels and now the Royals... those teams find value in him as a backup catcher. Teammates tout his intelligence and what he brings to the team. I frankly don't care about his bWAR or whatever. Whether we (fans who think we know more than front office people) like it or not, he provides value in the eyes of the people that matter most.

 

3.) I skimmed my rankings... I don't think I ever had Butera in the top 30. 

 

4.) Fair enough... but then Buxton and Hicks and Plouffe hit 97 in high school, maybe they should be bullpen guys too. 

 

5.) It's possible I ranked two backup big league catchers in my preliminary top 20. It's also possible that neither one of them will make it to the big leagues. It's possible one does and the other doesn't. It's possible they both do, one becomes a starter and the other is a backup. 

1) Perhaps I wasn't clear. My question about where you might have gotten your information on Navarretto was not meant as a slight or indictment of you. In point of fact, it would be poor reporting if you didn't reach out to get comprehensive information on each and every prospect from inside sources who work with, or see the kids year-round. You would have to admit though, that when a kid who hasn't done anything to particularly stand out so far in his professional career and suddenly jumps into the top 20 will cause some of us to inquire further to determine the source to establish the validity of that jump.

4) I highly doubt that even going all the way back to early Babe Ruth League that Butera ever showed anything that suggested the hit tool of Buxton, Hicks, Plouffe. And if there was any doubt, his career MiLB numbers: .214 BA .607 OPS in 1829 PAs should have been sufficient evidence that he would turn out to be-

the worst hitter in all of baseball with 850 PAs or more since 2010.  His wRC+ is 39. Here's the supporting link. His lifetime .185 BA at least has made Mario Mendoza very, very happy- futility has a new name to rally around in Drew Butera.

Butera is so off-the-charts bad, the 2nd worst hitting catcher, Mike Zunino looks like Mike Piazza when comped to Drewbie.

5) Again, I was not criticizing your picks of two possible future back-up catchers. Just questioning the conventional wisdom about organizational strength. I hope that one or both blossom in 2016 and begin to solve the Twins' catching black hole, I prefer being optimistic if given good reason to do so.