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If the Triple-A season were a round of golf, Kaelen Culpepper might be two under par through the first five holes. It’s not been a scorching start, but he’s within touching distance of a great front nine. Botched metaphor aside, Culpepper has surpassed 30 games at St. Paul, so it’s time to dig into his numbers and make some initial assessments of his performance.
Upon first glance, it’s a solid start. Through 34 games, Culpepper is hitting .250/.335/.465, with 8 home runs among 15 extra-base hits. He’s walking a healthy 10.4% of the time, and striking out just 20.1% of the time, good for a 103 wRC+ through the first month-plus of games. Not bad.
Let’s start with Culpepper’s bat-to-ball skills. Is he making enough contact? Definitely. Culpepper is running an overall contact rate of 79.2% (on the high end of average for a big leaguer). His in-zone contact rate is 89.5% (an average big-leaguer hovers around 85%). Why is this significant? Well, Culpepper’s data hasn’t been widely publicly available since he debuted in 2024. Additionally, before 2026, he hadn’t played a game at the Triple-A level. This is his first month at the doorstep of the majors, which makes what we've seen so far really encouraging stuff.
Coming out of college, scouting reports had mixed reviews on Culpepper’s ability to hit for power. He wasn’t a prolific power hitter in college, maxing out at 11 home runs in his junior season in an environment that maximizes offensive production. Conversely, it was a pretty right-handed swing with good bat speed that looked geared towards maximizing pull-side loft. How is all that playing out in Lowertown?
Pretty well, so far. After clubbing 20 home runs in 113 MiLB games in 2025, Culpepper has 8 more through 31 in 2026, with those 15 extra-base hits overall. His exit velocity numbers look solid, too. He’s currently running an average EV of 91 mph, with a MaxEV of 110.2 mph. We can shoehorn those numbers confidently into a 50-55 power grade, good for somewhere in the range of 20-26 home runs in a given season. Culpepper is hitting the ball hard with regularity, running a hard-hit rate of 48.2%, well above the major-league average of around 38%.
Ok, so far, so good. What about that pesky ground ball rate though? Culpepper ran a ground ball percentage of 50% in 2025—problematically high, no matter how hard you hit the ball or how solid your bat-to-ball skills are. He’s cut that significantly in the early going in 2026. It’s currently sitting at 43.2%, in the region of where it should be, with an average launch angle of 12.4°.
Far too rosy a picture so far, right? There has to be a bugaboo in this increasingly solid-looking offensive profile? Well, there is. Culpepper chases a lot. His current rate sits at 31.1%, which is high enough that it could expose him a bit in the majors. It’s not crippling, though. For context, there are around 100 big-league hitters who currently have a higher chase rate.
Culpepper has always chased. He was an aggressive swinger in college. That’s a trait the Twins aren’t afraid of drafting. It’ll likely always be part of his game. How he’s chased has changed, though, which is a development worth spending a moment on. The scouting report is out on Culpepper. Breaking and off-speed stuff, down and away. Here’s the simplest visual possible, the number of pitches he’s been thrown at Triple-A to date, by zone location.
That’s a lot down and away. Here’s the good news, though. While Culpepper is still chasing a lot, he’s chasing less down and away, and more inside. Why is that helpful? Inside is Culpepper’s nitro zone. Peep the visual below, which shows Culpepper’s slugging percentage by zone location. If you’re going to chase, chase where you can do damage, and show that it's a result of having honed your focus on one productive part of the strike zone, rather than a result of being defensive or deceived.
Through the end of the week-long series in Vegas, Culpepper was running a .269 BABIP. There’s not much about his contact skills, quality of contact, or batted-ball profile to suggest there’s some underlying issue here. In short, despite his solid 103 wRC+, I think Culpepper is about to heat up and produce more.
The Twins are encouraged by Culpepper’s play at shortstop. He’d easily be the Twins' best defensive infielder right now. I feel relatively confident calling him likely to be an average big-league shortstop (complimentary), if not slightly better. His arm will allow the skill set to work excellently at third base, too (don’t tell Royce, anyone).
If his first 34 games at Triple-A can be relied on, Culpepper can soon fill several voids the Twins desperately need him to. An above-average defensive infielder, and at the very least, a solid, two-win, everyday player. In another 30 games or so, I expect him to be knocking on the door a little more loudly.
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- Peter Gravett, arby58, mikelink45 and 10 others
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