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    Why the Twins Shouldn't Replace Pablo Lopez

    The obvious reaction to the Pablo López injury is to hope the Twins seek out another starting pitcher to fill the void. They should avoid doing so.
    Cody Pirkl

    By Cody Pirkl

    Image courtesy of © Jonah Hinebaugh/Naples Daily News/USA Today Network-Florida / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

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    The Twins lost arguably their best starting pitcher this week. Pablo López is seeking a second opinion on the prognosis for a torn UCL, but is very likely to undergo season-ending surgery in the coming days. The rotation was expected to be the strength of a roster projected to finish below .500 by many projection systems. With a further bite taken out of the Twins’ chances, it’s fair to wonder whether they try to replace their ace. One could easily argue, however, that they shouldn't try to do so.

    The Twins have several interesting options to fill their currently vacant rotation spot. At the 2025 trade deadline, it felt as though they were preparing for life without López and Joe Ryan, as they acquired several arms who could contend for a rotation spot for years to come. The offseason took plenty of twists and turns, but eventually, the organization settled on another run at contending in 2026, while holding onto the veterans that had survived the 2025 fire sale. As a result, the Twins were set to stash several starting pitchers in Triple-A who had nothing left to prove there.
    The Twins’ depth is such that they will not have enough rotation spots for the number of pitchers whose next step in development must come at the big-league level. Taj Bradley, Mick Abel, Zebby Matthews, and David Festa all have cases to make the parent club's roster on opening day. They will also have Connor Prielipp, Andrew Morris, and Kendry Rojas headlining the rotation in St. Paul, who could all debut in 2026 if needed. Though there’s no such thing as too much pitching depth, the Twins have no immediate shortage of young, exciting options to mix into the rotation throughout the year with the potential to be productive.
    While many of their immediate options are unproven and far from guaranteed to be successful in the rotation, it’s worth weighing them against potential external replacements. Lucas Giolito sits atop the list of remaining free agents. He could be looking for a one-year prove-it deal, after missing all of 2024 and looking like a diminished version of himself in 2025. Other options include Frankie Montas, who posted a 6.28 ERA in 2025, and Max Scherzer, who is unlikely to be interested in spending what is possibly the last season of his career in Minnesota at 41 years old.
     
    While it would be hard to fault the Pohlads for spending money, an argument can be made that the development of the Twins’ internal rotation candidates is more valuable than the production any of these last-minute signings could make. The remaining free-agent market lacks the upside in both the short- and long-term that the Twins' current selection of young arms offers.
     
    The Twins could seek out a trade for a big name, but doing so comes with significant risk beyond the 2026 season. The Twins aren’t the only team seeking starting pitching help headed into spring training. Toronto and Atlanta are dealing with injuries to their rotations, as well, and options are limited at this advanced stage of the offseason. Much like the trade deadline in recent seasons, it would be a sellers’ market for anyone willing to deal starting pitching. The Twins, being buyers in this scenario, could be paying premium prospect capital to acquire a big arm. There’s a time and place for going big, but it’s hard to argue that this 2026 roster warrants such a gamble.
     
    The current roster, in fact, is the strongest argument against replacing López with any external additions. The Twins set themselves up for a mediocre 2026 season at the 2025 trade deadline. They then spent much of the offseason sitting on their hands, as they tried to decide the organization's direction. They’re left with much of the same offensive core that has consistently failed over the last two years (and four of the last five), and have mostly replaced their previously elite bullpen with minor-league signings and waiver claims. Anything can happen in baseball, but the projections paint the picture of a team that should not be mortgaging the future for 2026.
    This season should be an opportunity for several players to debut and develop at the MLB level, rather than blocking them or trading them away in favor of external options. There is plenty of upside on the pitching and position-player sides of the roster, but many players need the opportunity to show what they can provide in the future. If things go extremely well, the Twins can compete in 2026 without replacing Pablo Lopez. If they do not, they will at least have sorted through the roster in preparation for 2027.
     
    Cody Pirkl is a Twins Writer for Twins Daily and lover of all things baseball.
    Follow Cody Pirkl on Twitter: CodyPirkl

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    bean5302

    bean5302 9,282

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

    3 hours ago, DJL44 said:

    Possibly correct, but 2 fewer wins means their chances of making the playoffs drop below 20%. Their plan for making the playoffs was "everything needs to go right". They didn't have any margin.

    I don't think they should add another starting pitcher by trade. I would gladly accept a trade for a shortstop. A shortstop who can play plus defense would lower the runs allowed for all pitchers on the team.

    So are we talking a direct reduction? I didn't have them at 20% to begin with, lol. Going from 2% to 1% is a 50% reduction, but not meaningful hahaha

    Parfigliano

    Parfigliano 12,175

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

    3 hours ago, Mahoning said:

    This argument is, "Send them out there to take their lumps," and it is a plausible one, as long as two or three of them don't also need surgery, and Bailey Ober gets some velocity back. It seems at odds with Tom Pohlad's pronouncement that they intend to compete this season. If Ober continues his regression, then you have Ryan, Woods-Richardson (whom I like), and then three of the four -- Abel, Bradley, Matthews, and Festa -- have to prove they are for real. That is a lot of hoping. Meanwhile, Zach Littell, who pitched 186 innings last year, would, presumably, be a lot cheaper than Giolito.

    TPohlad said TC is "going to compete" because he had to say that.  As the brand new top of the organization  guy he had to say that.

    LastOnePicked

    LastOnePicked 4,436

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

    4 hours ago, Mahoning said:

    Tom Pohlad's pronouncement that they intend to compete this season.

    Nothing about their behavior suggests that they believe this. You can attach a basket to a balloon filled with these intentions, and you'll have a beautiful flight across Twins Territory.

    LastOnePicked

    LastOnePicked 4,436

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

    3 hours ago, miller761 said:

    Follow Milwaukee's blueprint. They are consistently in the playoffs in a small market like the Twins with a similar payroll. They get rid of most players as they approach free agency and take younger players in return. They then blend the younger players into the MLB team each year. They are always a young, athletic, good fundamentally and a very sound defensive team. You don't need a team of stars, you need a team of baseball players. Milwaukee has shown it can be done and how. The Twins just need to be copycats. 

    Agreed, but that would take a vision, a commitment to that vision, and proper actions aligned with that vision. This organization isn't even capable of Step 1 at this point.

    DocBauer

    DocBauer 22,264

  • Old-Timey Member

    • Posted

    There's just mo way to replace Lopez barring some unheard of major ST trade. Just not going to happen. But someone has to take his spot in the rotation. 

    If the Twins, deep down inside, really believe deep down that there's enough talent to compete for a winning record, and possibly squeeze in to the playoffs, I'd have no problem if they reached out to Littel or Giolito to "firm up" the rotation. Said veteran relieves a little pressure on other younger arms, and might ease the pressure on the bullpen as well. That veteran might even be flipped at the deadline for a solid prospect or two.

    BUT, I also have zero opposition to opening up that additional rotation spot for one of the "kids" to grab hold of it. The circumstances that provide opportunity with the Lopez injury stinks. But the silver lining could be a step forward for another young arm...or more since everyone but SWR still has options so you can role through all of them as needed...to potentially build a deeper, stronger rotation for the future.

    And isn't that we and the Twins have been hoping for? 

    Simply for arguement sake, let's still assume Festa is going to the bullpen because that's best HIS future, as well as for the team. (It could be Matthews as well). That means 2 of Matthews, Abel, and Bradley fill out the rotation with 1 sitting at AAA to begin the season. That's exciting, and having that 6th arm sitting at St Paul has proven to NOT being an impeding as you are going to need that 6th arm at some point anyway. 

    But since Matthews and Bradley are a little older, and have more ML experience, let's just say Abel is the "loser" and begins at AAA. That leaves the depth waiting in the wings to be Abel, Morris, Prielipp, Rojas, and possibly CJ Culpepper.  Not bad. And St Paul still has some arms like Baker, and Bash, etc, who have started quite a few games in MILB. They can even run some piggyback games for the 5th spot if needed.

    I probably lean towards going with the younger arms and move a couple of them up and down as needed if someone needs a brief re-set at some point. Ignoring payroll entirely, that's probably best for the future of the rotation. And it's probably where I lean.

    But I'm not going to be upset if ownership OK's a veteran signing. 

    JD-TWINS

    JD-TWINS 6,212

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

    6 hours ago, Senior Softball Guy said:

    Zack Littell is the definition of a "innings eater". Not sexy, but would be helpful to a staff of "5 inning" guys. I never understood why thet let him go in the first place.

    Career ERA for Littell is 3.88 …… Career ERA for Lopez is 3.81

    HerbieFan

    HerbieFan 1,221

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

    I've said all along that 2026 needs to be about finding exactly what they have with a number of players.  Any trade for a starter needs to be for someone with team control for multiple seasons.  I'm in favor of seeing what they have in guys like Abel, Bradley, Festa, Matthews along with Ober, SWR, Ryan.

    Greglw3

    Greglw3 972

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

    11 hours ago, Mahoning said:

    This argument is, "Send them out there to take their lumps," and it is a plausible one, as long as two or three of them don't also need surgery, and Bailey Ober gets some velocity back. It seems at odds with Tom Pohlad's pronouncement that they intend to compete this season. If Ober continues his regression, then you have Ryan, Woods-Richardson (whom I like), and then three of the four -- Abel, Bradley, Matthews, and Festa -- have to prove they are for real. That is a lot of hoping. Meanwhile, Zach Littell, who pitched 186 innings last year, would, presumably, be a lot cheaper than Giolito.

    That's the guy they should sign is Littell. Still plenty of room for the young guys to pitch over the course of a season when 10 or more starters are sometimes used by MLB teams.



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