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Candidate 1: Danny Santana
Santana jumped from the bottom of the lineup to the top one month after being called up last year, and never looked back. He consistently led off for the Twins over the final four months and did a terrific job, batting over .300 with tons of steals and surprising power. When he's performing like he did in his rookie season, he's almost an ideal leadoff man.
However, most are not expecting him to replicate that performance. Santana's .319 batting average was propped up by a .405 BABIP, and when his average returns to a more standard level (he's a .275 career hitter in the minors) his lack of patience will leave him with a mediocre on-base percentage.
He still offers some intriguing perks as a leadoff choice -- most notably his outstanding speed on the base paths -- but I believe Santana will create too many outs to be a good option at the top of the lineup.
Candidate 2: Brian Dozier
He was the team's leadoff man on Opening Day last year, and held that post for much of the first half before sliding down to the No. 2 spot after Santana's emergence.
Dozier has some qualities that make him a very good fit at the top. He's a good base runner: last season he stole 21 bases and was thrown out only seven times. Between the steals and the extra-base power, he frequently puts himself in scoring position. And his propensity for taking walks -- he ranked third in the AL with 89 -- enables him to maintain a strong OBP without depending on his batting average to drive it. (Last year his average was 75 points lower than Santana's and his OBP was eight points lower.)
Dozier was hitting home runs at a crazy pace in the first half last year, and the decision to move him down in the lineup was born partially out of a desire to give him the chance to knock in more runners with the long ball, but I would expect fewer home runs and a higher average from him this year.
Candidate 3: Joe Mauer
This is an idea that fans have long thrown around, but Ron Gardenhire never gave it a try. In his 1,298 career games, Mauer has never been written into the lineup as leadoff hitter. That's not surprising; he is an unconventional choice and Gardy was very much a conventional mind. But now there's a new manager in charge -- one with a reputation for seeing things in a different way.
Mauer lacks the pure speed that you'll find in most No. 1 hitters, but he's a good bet to lead the team -- if not the league -- in on-base percentage. He'll always give the rest of the lineup a good long look at the opposing pitcher with lengthy at-bats. And assuming he rebounds from last year's struggles, he's likely to be one of the best hitters on the team and a guy whose plate appearances you want to maximize.
What do you think? Do you prefer one of these three as leadoff hitter, or is there another sleeper candidate you'd like to see in the spot?
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