Who Says No? Brian Dozier Edition

No way.  Only one season with above league average OPS+.   The Twins control him for 3 seasons and have the likes of Santana, Polanco, Gordon, Michael in the pipeline for the 2 middle infield positions.   I'd sell high as a matter of fact and start 2015 with a middle infield of Escobar and Santana with Polanco waiting.

I wouldn't mind if he got traded but I think he gets resigned because he is becoming a major club house presence and seems like the kind of player that is right up Molitor's avenue.

I think that if the Twins packaged him and Kohl Steward or Jose Berrios plus maybe another prospect, they can get Jordan Zimmermann.   If they extend Zimmermann, who would you rather have? 

Competitive teams close holes and are opportunistic.  And are not afraid to sell high.

Walker is projected for a better season next year. Projections need to be based on 3-5 years and Walker has been consistently strong longer. His projection from steamer of 3.4 compared to 2.9 for Dozier is pretty close so the comp is a good one. I don't think any arbiter would accept the clearly inferior argument, but the number aspect makes sense.

 Dozier is two years younger, I have no argument that Walker has a longer track record. I also agree that the decision involves a bit of speculation and poker on the part of both parties.  But if Dozier just continues on his current path, even somewhere between 2013 and 2014 (I'm not sure how he should be fairly evaluated to drop to 2.9 WAR, much lower than either of his last two seasons???), plus salary inflation, he's going to make a whole lot more than Walker when he reaches Arb2.

Consider just the last two seasons, and hence my point about who has been the better player:

Dozier rWAR  9.0 /d WAR 2.2

Walker rWAR  7.6 /d WAR 1.2

 

Consider just the last two seasons, and hence my point about who has been the better player:

 

Dozier rWAR  9.0 /d WAR 2.2

Walker rWAR  7.6 /d WAR 1.2

WAR is a cumulative metric, so if one player has more PAs (and by hitting Dozier lead off, it is because of the manager) has higher WAR.    For the sake of completeness and normalized

Last 2 seasons:

Dozier: 1330 PA, 8.9 rWAR, 7.3 fWAR, 6.69 rWAR/1000 PA, 5.49 fWAR/1000 PA

Walker: 1220 PA, 7.6 rWAR, 6.4 fWAR, 6.22 rWAR/1000 PA, 5.24 fWAR/1000 PA

Last 3 seasons:

Dozier: 1670 PA, 9.6 rWAR, 6.8 fWAR, 5.74 rWAR/1000 PA, 4.07 fWAR/1000 PA

Walker: 1750 PA, 10.1 rWAR, 9.0 fWAR, 5.77 rWAR/1000 PA, 5.14 fWAR/1000 PA

Not that different the last 2 seasons, and Walker better the last 3 seasons.  

I'd wait for two reasons 1) Make sure Dozier is consistent enough to warrant an investment and 2) Shorten the extension and/or buy out an extra year.

I just want more data on what Dozier exactly is before I'd be comfortable giving him that much money.

WAR is a cumulative metric, so if one player has more PAs (and by hitting Dozier lead off, it is because of the manager) has higher WAR.    For the sake of completeness and normalized

 

Last 2 seasons:

Dozier: 1330 PA, ***8.9 rWAR, 7.3 fWAR, 6.69 rWAR/1000 PA, 5.49 fWAR/1000 PA

Walker: 1220 PA, 7.6 rWAR, 6.4 fWAR, 6.22 rWAR/1000 PA, 5.24 fWAR/1000 PA

Last 3 seasons:

Dozier: 1670 PA, 9.6 rWAR, 6.8 fWAR, 5.74 rWAR/1000 PA, 4.07 fWAR/1000 PA

Walker: 1750 PA, 10.1 rWAR, 9.0 fWAR, 5.77 rWAR/1000 PA, 5.14 fWAR/1000 PA

 

Not that different the last 2 seasons, and Walker better the last 3 seasons.  

***From Baseball Reference-  Dozier 2013 WAR  3.8 + 2014 WAR 5.2 = 9.0 WAR    not 8.9 WAR.  That's a 1.4 WAR difference, and the trend appears to be heading in Dozier's direction.  If 1.0 WAR is supposed to represent $6M, and now likely $7M, the trend seems to be Dozier's friend for a bigger arb award in 2017, especially being two years younger.

Dozier only played half the season in his first (failed) year, and as I acknowledged previously, Walker has the longer track record upon which to judge. And Walker has only played in 129, 133 and 137 games the last 3 seasons, by contrast, Dozier has played in 147 and 156 games the last two seasons, so normalization of WAR isn't entirely accurate in terms of a batting-order-manager-decision difference.  In point of fact,  Dozier has played 33 more games than Walker over the last two seasons, 5th most for all 2nd baseman,, definitely a valuable data-point for clubs seeking durability at a key defensive position.

Another big difference is the area you have completely left out- the Baseball Reference defensive metric in the overall component, which shows Dozier grading out the better 2nd baseman.

I guess we disagree about whether or not an arbiter would see Walker as clearly inferior.

Only if the arbiter sees more from the numbers I've cited that show Dozier's done better, plus the two year's difference in their ages going forward to 2017.

Right now, Walker has the longer track record in his favor, the other indicators appear to be going in Dozier's direction. Again, even if he regresses as Steamer projects, the strong salary inflation dynamic in MLB is going to push up that Arb 2 number quite a bit by 2017.

Ignoring the trade Dozier idea because...he's damn good...we don't know for sure about options to replace him just yet...and I think he has room to definitely get better.

I want to look at Twins control and his somewhat late-blooming age and side on the "wait one more year" side of things. But I can't and won't. Because...he's damn good...we don't know for sure about options to replace him just yet...and I think he has room to definitely get better.

SD made some great points/comments earlier. Were it me, I'd put forth a 5 year offering right now. I'd consider 6 years, but I just like 5 better from the Twins "hook" perspective. And if I'm Dozier, I might like 1 less year as well, allowing for possible FA one year earlier down the road. Regardless...this is a deal that offers financial cost control for both parties, investment and dividend/security. But as previously mentioned, I would balance the years of the contract more by front-loading more. This accomplishes the goal of allowing greater financial flexibility for the Twins in a couple of years when they start to offer extensions and the such, but also makes Dozier that much more attractive to other teams should they decide to make a deal, not being on the hook for such a large deal at the end of the contract.

I'm with Doc on this one. The "wait" answer doesn't come without consequences. If Dozier has another good/solid year like 2014, these numbers Seth has proposed won't even be anywhere close to enough.

The trend has been to lock players up earlier and earlier. Teams do that because they can get the best long-term deal BEFORE the player has fully proven himself. If Dozier is an All-Star again, there's little reason to buy out his arb years at that point. He'll get paid as a proven All-Star either way.

Sign him, sign him now. And front-load it as much as possible.

Except there can be serious consequences to not waiting. Dozier's offensive production has been very streaky and you run the risk in paying him huge money now that he becomes the Twins version of Allen Craig or many other guys who got paid too soon.

There is just something about Dozier's game I don't trust Longterm.

If they could extend Zimmerman you have a brilliant idea. I would say that is a huge if.

If they don't, they don't make the trade...  Similar to the Santana deal for the Mets.

I know the rangers gave Kinsler an extension that declined as he went into his 30s. Those contracts are pretty rare. Maybe they shouldn't be.

They're rare because the union heavily pressures against them. I've tried, largely in vain, to get people to stop suggesting these because they just don't happen with regularity for a reason.

Only in hockey and football is it accepted practice,in baseball and basketball it is taboo.