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    What's the Plan with Tyler Austin?

    Nick Nelson

    By Nick Nelson

    When the Twins added C.J. Cron and essentially tabbed him as their 2019 first baseman, the move puzzled me. Not because of Cron so much as what his addition seemed to say about the lone incumbent at first base.

    Is Tyler Austin being written out of Minnesota's plans already? Or is there still a way his very specific, very potent skills could be optimally put to use?

    Image courtesy of Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports

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    Up to this point, Austin has shown some ability as a major-league hitter. Through his age 26-season, he owns a .758 OPS in 404 MLB plate appearances. This year between New York and Minnesota he slugged .480 in 268 PA; that's a higher mark than Eddie Rosario finished with, and barely below what Cron produced in a career year with Tampa.

    In many ways, Austin looks like the prototypical "change of scenery special." He showed promise with the Yankees but couldn't differentiate himself in a system full of big power bats. Having acquired him in the Lance Lynn deal, the Twins found themselves with a prime opportunity to give Austin a prolonged look, with first base becoming vacant, but instead they chose to go with Cron – a similar if not redundant player.

    Austin's solid overall production has been highly polarized in its concentration. Against right-handed pitchers he's been ineffective, with a .211/.259/.405 slash line and 39% K-rate. Against lefties he's been DOMINANT, at .272/.345/.592 and 32%. The way to best utilize such a player seems clear: partner him with a lefty swinger who can mash righties, and let Rocco Baldelli play the platoon game while also enjoying some great strategic pinch-hitting options.

    Cron throws a wrench in that, swinging from the same side as Austin. In fact, given his neutral platoon splits and his success in a full-time role this year, it seems likely Cron will be penciled as the everyday starter at first.

    This leaves only one path for Austin, who's out of options next spring and likely to land elsewhere if he doesn't make the roster: designated hitter. There is still opportunity there for the Twins to leverage Austin's strengths and deploy him impactfully.

    They can't trust him as full-time DH. It'd be irresponsible to go with Austin as the full-time solution, given his ugly numbers against righties. But if you equip the team with a lefty bat that can frequently plug in at DH? Then we're cooking.

    Theoretically, this can be accomplished with the existing setup. Roll with a bench of Mitch Garver, Ehire Adrianza, Willians Astudillo and Jake Cave, then rotate Cave (or Eddie Rosario) through the DH spot against righties. It'd be a good way to keep arguably your reigning two best hitters (Rosario and Cave) in the lineup regularly.

    Another bench construction that would intrigue me, if Garver is deemed good to go at catcher, would be swapping out Astudillo (who has an option remaining) for outfielder LaMonte Wade, recently added to the 40-man roster. He'll be 25 on Opening Day, has ample experience at Triple-A, and would help balance out a roster short on patience and plate discipline. Wade has a .391 OBP in the minors and walks more than he strikes out against right-handers.

    Alternatively, the Twins could seek out another lefty bat via trade or free agency to complement Austin as a DH/bench piece. It'd need to be someone with a bit of positional flexibility since the team surely isn't gonna carry three first basemen.

    These are scenarios in which Minnesota could still roster Austin and maximize his value. But the simple reality may be that they just don't see the 27-year-old fitting into their plans. Cron's addition already hinted toward this (why not just skip him and set up the Austin platoon at first?) and the reported serious interest in Nelson Cruz would be another indicator. If the Twins sign Cruz, Austin's out – that feels like a safe assumption.

    In fact, signing Cruz and essentially locking him in for 600 plate appearances at DH would all but eliminate any room for creative platoons or rotations, which strikes me as odd for a team that claims to be focused on sorting out existing assets and developing its core.

    Giving up on Austin wouldn't necessarily be malpractice, given that he's so one-dimensional both offensively and defensively, and so very very strikeout-prone. But based on the pure slugging prowess he showed during his short time in Minnesota this year, and his proven ability to terrorize southpaws, he certainly seems worthy of a longer look.

    For his part, Austin is undoubtedly tracking the front office's movements at the Winter Meetings as closely as any fan, knowing that the addition of Cruz would turn his grasp on a roster spot from precarious to perilous.

    Nick is a co-founder of Twins Daily who's been writing about the team for more than 15 years.
    Follow Nick Nelson on Twitter: NickNelsonMN

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    Featured Comments

    Riverbrian

    Riverbrian 42,821

  • Old-Timey Member

    • Posted

    Make him be a one dimensional 1B only type and you will kill him and his career. 

     

    If he can play OF... you have given him a chance to help you and a chance to prolong his career. 

     

    He was an OF in the Yankees minor league system. I won't pretend to know the circumstances but I know that there is always circumstance. 

     

     

     

     

     

    twinsfansd

    twinsfansd 280

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

    Yes, I have been promoting Austin as a possible outfield fit all along. That does leave them without a decent defensive replacement OF if they go with a 13 man pitching staff, however. So I guess it depends on what kind of bench Rocco wants.

    That big right handed bat against left handers would sure look good in the lineup, though.

    caninatl04

    caninatl04 522

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

    Yes, I have been promoting Austin as a possible outfield fit all along. That does leave them without a decent defensive replacement OF if they go with a 13 man pitching staff, however. So I guess it depends on what kind of bench Rocco wants.

    That big right handed bat against left handers would sure look good in the lineup, though.

    So, with a 3 man bench, who would they be against RHP?
    rdehring

    rdehring 5,060

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

    Smart move would be to hang on to him thru spring training.  But that means someone else needs to go today/tommorrow when Cruz is added to the roster.  My choice would be Granite or Reed.  With that said, wouldn't be surprised to see Austin traded later today to open that spot.

    Jim Hahn

    Jim Hahn 230

  • Provisional Member

    • Posted (edited)

    Make him be a one dimensional 1B only type and you will kill him and his career.

     

    If he can play OF... you have given him a chance to help you and a chance to prolong his career.

     

    He was an OF in the Yankees minor league system. I won't pretend to know the circumstances but I know that there is always circumstance.

     

    But that is what Austin is, a one dimensional 1b type. It is highly unlikely he can play OF at above a barely passable level, or the Yankees would of continued to use him there, at least in the minors when he was residing there between his short stints in the majors. There are too many guys like him, and unless they can hit same side pitching at a league average level, they have very little value except as a shuttle piece between the majors and minors.

     

    The large pitching staffs seemingly necessary in modern baseball, have ruined things for any sort of one dimensional bench player. In fact it has pretty much ruined any type of straight platoon, that was common even 20 years ago or so. This is why any infielder coming thru the Twins system in the last ten years, has generally played all over the infield and often in the OF too. Corner types like Rooker are played in both corner OF spots and 1b. Teams really need 8 regulars but anyone not starting has to play several positions.

     

    It is even difficult to accomadate a full time dh. Which is why Cruz received less money than he might of, if he could still play the OF or if there were larger rosters. This is why you need ready minor league talent that are above AAAA types. The bench isn't near large enough to protect a team from injuries and poor performances.

    Edited by Jim Hahn
    Jim Hahn

    Jim Hahn 230

  • Provisional Member

    • Posted

    If we’re trading Austin, I’d prefer it if we packaged him, Granite, and Littell for a quality LH reliever.

    I could be wrong, but I doubt if Austin or Granite have much value in a trade. Most teams already have their own Austin's, and Granite was hurt and ineffective last year. Littel may have some small value, but not much if teams view him as a likely AAAA pitcher.

    Riverbrian

    Riverbrian 42,821

  • Old-Timey Member

    • Posted

     

    But that is what Austin is, a one dimensional 1b type. It is highly unlikely he can play OF at above a barely passable level, or the Yankees would of continued to use him there, at least in the minors when he was residing there between his short stints in the majors. There are too many guys like him, and unless they can hit same side pitching at a league average level, they have very little value except as a shuttle piece between the majors and minors.

    The large pitching staffs seemingly necessary in modern baseball, have ruined things for any sort of one dimensional bench player. In fact it has pretty much ruined any type of straight platoon, that was common even 20 years ago or so. This is why any infielder coming thru the Twins system in the last ten years, has generally played all over the infield and often in the OF too. Corner types like Rooker are played in both corner OF spots and 1b. Teams really need 8 regulars but anyone not starting has to play several positions.

    It is even difficult to accomadate a full time dh. Which is why Cruz received less money than he might of, if he could still play the OF or if there were larger rosters. This is why you need ready minor league talent that are above AAAA types. The bench isn't near large enough to protect a team from injuries and poor performances.

     

    I don't know if Austin can play a passable OF or not and I'm going to assume you don't either. 

     

    However, Making the assumption that he is one-dimensional and assuming that it is highly unlikely that he can't play the OF based on the Yankees moving him to 1B is dangerous.

     

    The Yankees had an outfield surplus and a gaping hole at 1B. I don't know if that's why the Yankees moved him from OF to 1B but... the explanation is extremely plausible and plausible enough to doubt that he was moved because he was terrible in the OF. 

     

    I'd think it would be safer ground to simply wonder why he couldn't beat Bird for the 1B job. 

     

    And... I know I'm not trusting the Twins to make a capable assessment after watching them stiffly deploy playing time over the years.  

     

    I agree with the last two paragraphs you type... and therefore... If Austin can play some OF... it would be insane to throw that away. If Rosario could play 2B... it would be insane to throw that away... If Castellanos can play 3B... it would be insane to throw that away. But teams throw flexibility away all the time for stability or consistency and the shrinking pitching staffs are working against them. Starters can't just trot out to the same position every day. Utility guys don't have to be only guys who didn't win a starting job and then get shackled to one position.  

     

    Just stop the madness. Starters can move to different positions and still be starters... See Kris Bryant, See Cody Bellinger.

     

    When Adrianza gets a chance to play. Polanco could move to 2B so Adrianza could play SS instead of Adrianza moving to 2B and Polanco playing SS.  

     

    The Twins have a long history of this kind of crap. 

    ashbury

    ashbury 60,771

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

    We probably get for Austin only about what we gave up to get him in the first place.

     

    Defensively, in the outfield, he'd probably be about like Wil Myers or Franklin Gutierrez, if my favorite QnD scouting source* is to be trusted. Just to set the expectations, at least for myself. Very average, probably plodding, but not embarrassing. Definitely an option to consider.

     

    * Out of the Park, the baseball game - they claim to put in some effort in this regard, as a aggregator of scouting opinions

    ChrisKnutson

    ChrisKnutson 502

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

    I could be wrong, but I doubt if Austin or Granite have much value in a trade. Most teams already have their own Austin's, and Granite was hurt and ineffective last year. Littel may have some small value, but not much if teams view him as a likely AAAA pitcher.

    Perhaps naming Granite was a stretch, but I gotta believe a package of Austin, Blankenhorn, and Littell could at least bring back something of value.

    ChrisKnutson

    ChrisKnutson 502

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

    You can't throw in a bunch of junk and expect to get a quality arm back. Only way that happens if you take on a bad contract.

    I agree, the FO should take on Mark Melancon’s (or Martin Prado’s) bad contract as a way of acquiring Tony Watson (Adam Conley).

    Jim Hahn

    Jim Hahn 230

  • Provisional Member

    • Posted

    I think the problem here is that a lot of you think Austin's skill set is more valuable than I do. He didn't look like a particularly good 1b to me, in a small sample size. He is plodding and slow on the basepaths. I don't know if he can play the OF as noted above, but would be very surprised if he is as good as Grossman. His contact skills are poor, his walk rate is mediocre, and he hasn't shown he can hit same side pitching at a decent rate. What he does is hit home runs. If you give him enough AB's he could probably get 30 or more in a season. Now I think what he can't do thoroughly out weighs what he can do.

     

    Sure, he could improve his weak areas, some at least. But I think Cron is better, now and don't think you need 2 guys like that on the 25 roster, especially with today's big pitching staffs. I do hope the Twins can sneak him through to the minors, because he has value as insurance behind both Cruz and Cron.

     

    I don't know how the FO values him. They could have a different view than I do. Judging from their off season moves, they don't seem to have a lot of confidence in him. I do think that modern stats tend to overvalue power and undervalue contact skills. I could be wrong about that too.

    Vanimal46

    Vanimal46 40,512

  • Old-Timey Member

    • Posted

    I think the problem here is that a lot of you think Austin's skill set is more valuable than I do. He didn't look like a particularly good 1b to me, in a small sample size. He is plodding and slow on the basepaths. I don't know if he can play the OF as noted above, but would be very surprised if he is as good as Grossman. His contact skills are poor, his walk rate is mediocre, and he hasn't shown he can hit same side pitching at a decent rate. What he does is hit home runs. If you give him enough AB's he could probably get 30 or more in a season. Now I think what he can't do thoroughly out weighs what he can do.

     

    Sure, he could improve his weak areas, some at least. But I think Cron is better, now and don't think you need 2 guys like that on the 25 roster, especially with today's big pitching staffs. I do hope the Twins can sneak him through to the minors, because he has value as insurance behind both Cruz and Cron.

     

    I don't know how the FO values him. They could have a different view than I do. Judging from their off season moves, they don't seem to have a lot of confidence in him. I do think that modern stats tend to overvalue power and undervalue contact skills. I could be wrong about that too.

    I concur with you on your assessment. Teams can try to move players around the field to create 'flexibility' but there's always a cost. It's reasonable to expect he won't be as good defensively in the OF as he is at 1B. And he wasn't particularly good at 1B to begin with. So to recoup some lost value playing out of position, he needs to be really good with the bat to make up for it. He's not particularly good with the bat either.

     

    If he clears waivers and sent back to AAA they can play him at catcher for all I care. I don't want to see this experiment at the MLB level.

    Riverbrian

    Riverbrian 42,821

  • Old-Timey Member

    • Posted

     

     

     

    I think the problem here is that a lot of you think Austin's skill set is more valuable than I do. He didn't look like a particularly good 1b to me, in a small sample size. He is plodding and slow on the basepaths. I don't know if he can play the OF as noted above, but would be very surprised if he is as good as Grossman. His contact skills are poor, his walk rate is mediocre, and he hasn't shown he can hit same side pitching at a decent rate. What he does is hit home runs. If you give him enough AB's he could probably get 30 or more in a season. Now I think what he can't do thoroughly out weighs what he can do.

    Sure, he could improve his weak areas, some at least. But I think Cron is better, now and don't think you need 2 guys like that on the 25 roster, especially with today's big pitching staffs. I do hope the Twins can sneak him through to the minors, because he has value as insurance behind both Cruz and Cron.

    I don't know how the FO values him. They could have a different view than I do. Judging from their off season moves, they don't seem to have a lot of confidence in him. I do think that modern stats tend to overvalue power and undervalue contact skills. I could be wrong about that too.

     

    That's fair.

     

    I'm saying that I have no idea but I find his skill set interesting enough to see if it blossoms into something with more AB's and I don't believe he's had enough chances to show what he could or can't be. 

     

    I don't have this down to a science either but I'm interested. 

     

    However, If he can only play 1B, He'd have to hit at an extraordinary level to survive. 

    darin617

    darin617 1,160

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

    Trade him to Baltimore or Seattle.  Let him go to a team that doesn't want to win many games so he can get a full season of AB's.

     

    Then if he is doing what most think he is capable of doing he will be rewarded and traded to a contending team.

     

    Sad part is that Austin has such great potential and will most likely not be given the AB's he needs to do it in MN. To be honest, the best place for Austin would be to go play in Korea or Japan. Eric Thames got another chance in MLB after a few outstanding years in Korea.

    jokin

    jokin 4,237

  • Old-Timey Member

    • Posted (edited)

     

    Kepler gets more walks. If he figures out how the hell to hit, he has a very high ceiling. Tired of watching him take 500 ABs and .224 to reach his little 20 HRs, though. Cave had a better year.

     

    So have him platoon with Kepler? If so when will Cave get some AB's?

     

    Sustainability is in question.... Cave in 2018: BABIP .363 K%: 33%

     

    Steamer projects a huge regression for Cave (.702 OPS/.3 WAR), with Kepler maintaining his WAR (2.6). FWIW, Kepler's defense rated much higher than Cave's in 2018.

     

    Given the lopsided L/R hitting situation in the OF, it looks like the Twins might try Buxton becoming Cave's occasional part-time platoon partner, with Cave additionally spelling Kepler and Rosario on occasion. Didn't look up his minor league stats, but Cave was dreadful vs. LHP in 2018 (.598 OPS).

     

    It looks like the Yankees gave up on the idea of Tyler Austin playing significant innings in the OF after his 2015 AAA season. Right now, he looks like a man without a position, or even a roster spot. Unfortunate, if that's the way it works out, especially if Cron pulls another LoMo debacle.

    Edited by jokin


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