Week in Review: Opportunity Is Knocking

58 minutes ago, jorgenswest said:

Hasn’t he been taking really good at bats and making really good contact so far? He lost an extra base hit when his smash off the wall was a walk off and counted as a single. Thus far his average exit velocity is second on the team and 63.6% of his balls in play have been hard contact while his strike out rate has been relatively low.

He's been up a week and has 3 hits.  Let's see some consistent production before we appoint him our next superstar.  He has struggled in the past in his short stints in the major leagues.  We just don't know yet what he can do.

Mid season Review

What has worked -  The offense is starting to click.  The Twins have multiple players beginning to get hot.  Larnach, Lee, Clemens, Lewis, Caratini, Bell.   Jeffers coming back.   Buxton has been a beast with the bat again.  The offense is legit.    

Injuries galore - Starting pitching got hit hard.   Losing Lopez, Abel and Festa hurt.   Having 8 plus starting arms coming into the year was a godsend,  but the depth is maxed out, with minimal option left.    

Found a star -  Bradley is becoming the starter we expected to have in Lopez.  The Twins have as good of a 1-2 punch in Ryan and Bradley as anyone in the league.  

Bullpen - Bend but don't break.  Yes the ERA is the worst in the league, but its more been blow outs of games we were already losing.  They have not had the blown saves or holds like they had at the end of the year.  Again injuries have hurt - Banda, Sands.   Wow has Gomez and Morris really stepped up.   They appear to be the 2 high leverage relievers to rely on the rest of the way.  We need to find 2-3 more.  Nance is a good start and Sands is coming back.  I really really hope we can bring back Coloumbe.  We have more needs than most and a knowledge of what he can do.  

Minor deals have worked really well -  Larnach back at 4 million looks great in hind sight.   Bell at 5.5 millions looks good down the stretch when he typically gets hot.  Caratini was godsend when Jeffers got hurt.  Jackson looks like a legit backup catcher which is why we are keeping 3 catchers.  At this point, I would deal with the roster limitation for 6 more weeks until we get to Sept 1st and the roster increases.  Caratini and Jackson are a great duo for next year.  Banda really settled in prior to the injury.  Rogers for 2 million has done a ton of leverage work.  That a lot to expect out of a declining arm.  Gomez is an absolute find as stated before.  Kreidler is manning the SS position admirably.  Clemens has improved over last year.     If the only player to not really pan out was Orze,  this was an extremely successful rebuild of the bullpen all things considered with minimal resources put into it. 

If the Twins can begin to really solidify the bullpen into the strength which has some possibilities,  the Twins could become a decent threat in the playoffs.  2 good starters can carry you and the offense looks decent.  They are still likely too aggressive to succeed in the playoff but its a start.  If Nance, Sands, and potential Coloumbe can lock down the middle relief then,  you are looking at adding 1-2 bullpen arms at the deadline.  Considering where they started at thats a major win.  

11 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

He's not close to that good though. Are we really comparing him to Raleigh? Catchers don't make giant money. He'd be a fool not to accept 1. 23.... And be a free agent the next year. 

It's been a nice half year, pretty much what projection systems said, even if we fans weren't believers. But I can't see keeping Jeffers. 

Bradley has been amazing. The Twins and he deserve a lot of credit for his improvement. Matthews shows the value of moving mediocre starters to the bullpen, something they should do more over time. 

For the roster crunch? I'm dealing Bell if possible, with Buxton and Larnach splitting time at DH. Got to keep Byron healthy. If that doesn't work, maybe Larnach if I can get a prospect I can make a RP quickly.  This is tricky....

Cal Raleigh signed a 6 year $105 million contract - which also bought out arbitration years.  Had he hit free agency Raleight would have gotten more than $100 million so this isn't a apples to apples comparison.  Jeffers will come into free agency hitting 2+ War in 3 of the last for years and likely with 2 - 3 plus WAR.   Do to the lack of decent catchers that hit free agency he will have significant demand.   We won't keep Jeffers its why we are carrying 3 catchers. I go deeper into this on my previous post.   

As to the Twins, they are effectively stating they aren't selling.  They have said no on Ryan and Jeffers,  unless they tank the next 2 weeks, and Larnach and Bell appear to be safe as well.  They think they can get to the playoffs,  and honestly, their arrow is way up.  The offense is beginning to hit on all cylinders,  the defense is improving with Kreidler manning short,  Lee doing better at 3rd and Clemens doing admirably at 2nd.  Lewis is holding his own at 1st.    You deal with the roster crunch for 6 more weeks.  They will be fine.   

18 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

He's not close to that good though. Are we really comparing him to Raleigh? Catchers don't make giant money. He'd be a fool not to accept 1. 23.... And be a free agent the next year. 

It's been a nice half year, pretty much what projection systems said, even if we fans weren't believers. But I can't see keeping Jeffers. 

Bradley has been amazing. The Twins and he deserve a lot of credit for his improvement. Matthews shows the value of moving mediocre starters to the bullpen, something they should do more over time. 

For the roster crunch? I'm dealing Bell if possible, with Buxton and Larnach splitting time at DH. Got to keep Byron healthy. If that doesn't work, maybe Larnach if I can get a prospect I can make a RP quickly.  This is tricky....

Jeffers may not project that high, but catchers are thin at the MLB level right now and signing him to an extension may be an overpay, but also necessary for the next couple of years.  Bell wont' bring much more than a single A prospect.   I would ride him out for the year.   Larnach needs to stay - ERod/Martin/Wallner should be the trade pieces

11 minutes ago, Hawkeye Bean Counter said:

Mid season Review

What has worked -  The offense is starting to click.  The Twins have multiple players beginning to get hot.  Larnach, Lee, Clemens, Lewis, Caratini, Bell.   Jeffers coming back.   Buxton has been a beast with the bat again.  The offense is legit.    

Injuries galore - Starting pitching got hit hard.   Losing Lopez, Abel and Festa hurt.   Having 8 plus starting arms coming into the year was a godsend,  but the depth is maxed out, with minimal option left.    

Found a star -  Bradley is becoming the starter we expected to have in Lopez.  The Twins have as good of a 1-2 punch in Ryan and Bradley as anyone in the league.  

Bullpen - Bend but don't break.  Yes the ERA is the worst in the league, but its more been blow outs of games we were already losing.  They have not had the blown saves or holds like they had at the end of the year.  Again injuries have hurt - Banda, Sands.   Wow has Gomez and Morris really stepped up.   They appear to be the 2 high leverage relievers to rely on the rest of the way.  We need to find 2-3 more.  Nance is a good start and Sands is coming back.  I really really hope we can bring back Coloumbe.  We have more needs than most and a knowledge of what he can do.  

Minor deals have worked really well -  Larnach back at 4 million looks great in hind sight.   Bell at 5.5 millions looks good down the stretch when he typically gets hot.  Caratini was godsend when Jeffers got hurt.  Jackson looks like a legit backup catcher which is why we are keeping 3 catchers.  At this point, I would deal with the roster limitation for 6 more weeks until we get to Sept 1st and the roster increases.  Caratini and Jackson are a great duo for next year.  Banda really settled in prior to the injury.  Rogers for 2 million has done a ton of leverage work.  That a lot to expect out of a declining arm.  Gomez is an absolute find as stated before.  Kreidler is manning the SS position admirably.  Clemens has improved over last year.     If the only player to not really pan out was Orze,  this was an extremely successful rebuild of the bullpen all things considered with minimal resources put into it. 

If the Twins can begin to really solidify the bullpen into the strength which has some possibilities,  the Twins could become a decent threat in the playoffs.  2 good starters can carry you and the offense looks decent.  They are still likely too aggressive to succeed in the playoff but its a start.  If Nance, Sands, and potential Coloumbe can lock down the middle relief then,  you are looking at adding 1-2 bullpen arms at the deadline.  Considering where they started at thats a major win.  

Now get Ryan signed and you have Pablo, Joe and Taj to lead the SP

Just now, Mike Sixel said:

What are you getting for those players? I can't see dealing ERod without a highy overpay.

Same as you get with Bell.    Wallner/Martin not much more than a lottery ticket.   I am not a believer that ERod will reach his ceiling, and even if he does, all of the OF prospects can't all be on the team.   He is the one I trade for help

46 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

There are 2 catchers in MLB with $100 million deals currently. JT Realmuto had one previously. Ryan Jeffers is not JT Realmuto, Cal Raleigh, or Will Smith. He is not a plus defender. And he is not an .800+ OPS guy. He isn't ever getting MVP votes. I think familiarity, and general lack of offensive stars in MN, has lead to a significant overrating of Ryan Jeffers.

He's absolutely a solid player who can start for a contender. But he's not in the same stratosphere as the catchers who get $100 million deals. His best case is probably the Kirk deal at 5 years and 58 million. But Kirk is 26, not 29. Jeffers getting 5 years and being paid until he's 34 is also no sure thing.

Would people have been happy paying Victor Caratini 5 years and 50+ million this offseason? If I told you we signed Victor Caratini to a 1 year, $23 million deal before this season would you have been thrilled? They're both below average defenders and their lines the last 2 years are:

.246/.328/.414/.742
.263/.329/.406/.735

Both had an OPS+ of 106. Unless you think Ryan Jeffers is suddenly a .900 OPS guy, he's Victor Caratini. And nobody would be happy paying Victor Caratini the numbers that get thrown around on Jeffers.

Realmuto signed his 115 million contract in 2019.     Raleigh signed an extension which took away his 3 option years.   Will Smith has a 10 year 140 million contract.  

Currently Dingler has the highest WAR for catcher with 3.9, followed by Langeliers at 2.2 and then its Jeffers with 2.0.   Fine if you don't agree he will be a $100 million contract, which I think is a possibility I will stand by that he will get more than $60 million right now and would place a bet now.   With multiple years of 2+ year this isn't just a 1 off.  To find solid defense with good offensive potential those just don't grow on trees.  Now will the Twins be willing to take the risk of offering the QO.  I say no, but if they think they will have to spend,  along with several other teams,   there will be minimal risk to doing so, and they could then trade off Jackson.  

10 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

I mean, anything is possible, but you're comparing him to MVP candidates and gold glove type defenders. Career OPS for Jeffers is .756. Yes, he had 1 other year like this 4 seasons ago. Boras will do everything he can to point to that, and maybe he gets a team to believe in it. But his career number is much closer to what he was the last 2 years. Victor Caratini. That's my disagreement. You're pointing to the wrong comps. He's not Will Smith, Cal Raleigh, or JT Realmuto. He's Victor Caratini.

If the Twins need to spend because of CBA rule changes, other teams are going to need to cut because of CBA rule changes. The free agent list won't look like it does today. The owners aren't going to agree to a floor without a cap. And the Dodgers, Mets, Yankees, etc. will have to get under the cap. And they'll have to trade and cut expensive players to do it. Overspending on Jeffers by $10 million would not be a good use of their money.

Victor Caratini???   Based on what?  You can go after my $100 million fine,  but Caratini as a comp is absurd.  Even still if you were to give 2.5 times which Jeffers has proved at a 3-4 year contract - that 17.5 million at 3 years for 53 million.   Due to injuries I still think Jeffers tests the market - and the marginal improvement is worth more which means a 60 million plus contract.   Jeffers is a step below Smith, Raleigh and Realmuto,  but there is a large gap down to the other catchers who are at best mediocre.  The biggest issue with catchers is the variability just look at Raleigh at the quick degradation on performance.   Maybe I am wrong, but I really think Jeffers gets a significant contract.   

Year    (WAR)   Jeffers   Caratini

2023                  3.2             .7

2024                  2.1              1.3

2025                  1.3               .9

2026                  2.0              .3

Total (4 years)   8.6            3.2      

11 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

.246/.328/.414/.742
.263/.329/.406/.735

Which one is Caratini and which one is Jeffers? Those are their slash lines from the last 2 seasons. Neither is a plus defender. They're both bat first catchers with identical OPS+ numbers.

I don't care at all about WAR numbers for catchers. The defensive metrics placed in there makes it a near useless stat for me.

The numbers you are utilizing are skewed.  If Jeffers can continue what he did in the first half,  his season will be drastically better than anything Caratini has done.     

Lets look at OPS plus for the last 4 years which seems to be what you what to be going after

                   Jeffers      Caratini

2023           134              94

2024           103              111

2025           110               102

2026           160               97

Career        109                91

Yes Jeffers is being carried by this years stats.  Maybe he incredibly cools down.  But other than 2024 Jeffers has outperformed Caratini - in a starter role -  rather than being a backup Catcher.   Yes some of this is based on Jeffers drastically outperforming the end of the year,  but I think a 130 to 140 OPS+  which he would have done in 2 of the last 4 years would allow him to get a 17-20 million contract over 3 years.  He will be viewed much more positively than Caratini ever was.    These 2 are not on the same stratosphere.   

9 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

But, if you want to do WAR, here's the comps you're throwing out:

Raleigh: 15 WAR in that time frame.
Smith: 12.8
JT: 9.3

Realmuto is the closest, and he got 3 years and 45 million. But he's a premiere defensive catcher who doesn't rely solely on his offense to make up his numbers so the expectation is he'll provide more value as he ages to combat the point you bring up of the offensive variability of catchers. Raleigh is still an elite defender even with his offense completely cratering. Before JT got paid, he was putting up 4.5 WAR a season, not 2. So, even the stat you want to go with puts Jeffers far more than a step below the guys you're talking about.

His contract will be much closer to Alejandro Kirk (2 WAR catcher). But since he'll likely get fewer years than Kirk due to his age, you're most likely looking at 3 years and 40 to 50 million.
 

How old was Realmuto when he got the 3 year deal????   35 year old you say.   Don't you think that is quite a bit different than coming into his 30 year contract.    

So you will agree that if Jeffers gets 1.0 WAR this year which isn't out of the realm of possibility he would come in at the Same WAR as JT -  and 5 years younger.   JT's biggest issue is his age and father time.    This is the biggest reason why I think Jeffers wants a big contract.   If he were to get to 3+ WAR he will want to cash in on a contract year.    I don't seem him taking the contract like Martin Perez and not performing the next year.     

Here is Google - 

This is good and reasonable coversation.  Personally, I love Jeffers and can understand both sides of trading or not, but QO is a big definate "NO".  I honestly think that he should be traded if the offer is reasonable.  That would take a top 50 prospect.  If he doesn't draw that, then they don't want him bad enough.  Don't give him away, even though you would be giving him away during the offseason.  Even top 50 prospects can wash out.  The real thing is, He is our property at this time.  If someone wants to buy him for a reasonable price, it only makes sense to sell him.  The team has done quite well while he has been out.  I doubt that he would have provided any more wins had he not gotten injured.  My gut says to make the trade.

36 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

.246/.328/.414/.742
.263/.329/.406/.735

Which one is Caratini and which one is Jeffers? Those are their slash lines from the last 2 seasons. Neither is a plus defender. They're both bat first catchers with identical OPS+ numbers.

I don't care at all about WAR numbers for catchers. The defensive metrics placed in there makes it a near useless stat for me.

Caratini has never started at catcher more than 87 games and that was 5 years ago.  Comparing him to any other catcher is apples and oranges.

1 hour ago, Hawkeye Bean Counter said:

 Bell at 5.5 millions looks good down the stretch when he typically gets hot

Bell typically cools off in August which is why contending teams have had no interest in him the last few years.  I hope he continues his June production but history says it is unlikely.

1 hour ago, Hawkeye Bean Counter said:

I would deal with the roster limitation for 6 more weeks until we get to Sept 1st and the roster increases.

Roster sizes only increase by 2 to 28 now and typically one is a pitcher.  So you aren't going to get reinforcements in September or be able to take a look at younger guys like in the past.

10 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

I commented on JT's age and that his defense is what is carrying his value. Jeffers has 0 defensive value. If his bat dips, he's then a below average defensive catcher and below average hitter. JT can survive a dip in offense because he started with a much higher offensive baseline and he also continues to bring defensive value.

I disagree with you because I don't think the $15 million projects are low and I don't think he'll get 5 years. I think he'll get 3 or 4 years at 45 to 55 million. I disagree because I think you've significantly overrated Jeffers due to familiarity with him.

So you agree you aren't that far off of a 60 million contract.  Thats affectively where I am at - with a blow out end of the year could end at that 80-100 million range.