Week in Review: Down in the Dumps

HIGHLIGHTS

Kyle Gibson's fantastic performance down the stretch last season earned him another shot with the Twins, but there was understandably a great deal of skepticism around him heading into 2018. We've seen flashes like this from the right-hander before, and they've never sustained.

But his breakout in the latter part of 2017 did feel different. Gibson made some key adjustments that allowed his stuff to play up, and the result was a stark improvement in whiff rate.

"I learned a lot toward the end of the year last year, how my pitches work and how using the fastball differently can help," Gibson said following a spring start in Port Charlotte. His increasedusage of a four-seam has been huge, but on that particular day his slider happened to be a dominant pitch – "probably as good as it's been all spring," by his estimation – and that weapon's been doing work for him in the regular season. This was especially true on Thursday, when he delivered perhaps the best start of his career at Yankee Stadium.

Gibson carried a no-hitter into the fifth on his way to six scoreless, striking out 10 and shutting down a lineup that had destroyed the Twins for three games. He impressively induced 18 swinging strikes – 11 of them with the slider, as Tom noted in his recap. Gibson has now tallied 15-plus whiffs in three of his first four turns; last year, he reached that number twice in 29 total starts.

What once seemed like a fading pipe dream is now a reality: Gibson is finally harnessing his stuff and unleashing it on opposing hitters with devastating effectiveness. He has a 13% swinging strike rate in 16 starts dating back to the beginning of last August, which is sensational. For reference, here are the qualified starters who finished 2017 with a whiff rate of 13% or higher: Kluber, Scherzer, Tanaka, Sale, Ray, Kershaw, Archer, Carrasco, deGrom, Strasburg, Severino.

It's obviously a stretch to label Gibson a top-of-rotation starter in that class, mainly because his control still leaves much to be desired with a 59% strike rate and 4.7 BB/9 average, but his arsenal is operating at an elite level and has been for some time. That's huge.

Jake Odorizzi also had a very nice start against Cincy on Saturday in Minnesota's lone victory of the week. That's about the extent of the positives.

LOWLIGHTS

Last year, the Twins found themselves so thin on pitching depth so quickly that by the time May rolled around, they were claiming journeymen off waivers out of desperation for bodies on the staff. (Remember Adam Wilk?)

In their second go round, Derek Falvey and Thad Levine seemed to determined to avoid such a pitfall. They built out their starting depth with the late-offseason additions of Odorizzi and Lance Lynn. They brought in three veteran relievers on major-league free agent deals, and acquired another through the Rule 5.

Even with Ervin Santana and Trevor May on delayed timelines, the Twins had numbers. Yet here in 2018 they find themselves once again scouring the wire for usable arms – somehow even sooner this time around, despite the perceived depth and all the early off days. This time it was David Hale, who threw three crummy innings on Friday and was then sent packing.

The offense's slump (averaging only 3.5 runs in 12 games over the past two weeks, despite two series against bottom-tier teams and one in Yankee Stadium) could theoretically be explained in part by unexpected long layoffs, including a four-day respite during the Snowmageddon. But these circumstances should be benefitting the pitchers.

Unlike starting position players, it's not unusual for MLB hurlers to go several days without getting into a game. One would think the extra rest would help keep them fresh and strong.

That makes these struggles all the more baffling and alarming. Despite the rotation bright spots mentioned above, this was a staggeringly bad week for the pitching staff.

In a miserable effort against the Yankees, Lynn coughed up six runs in 3 2/3 innings – his third time in four starts allowing 5+ ER. On Friday, Phil Hughes melted down after the offense scored him five in the first inning, opening the floodgates on one of the most hideous games from a Twins staff in memory. Jose Berrios turned in two terrible starts, derailing his early momentum while relapsing into the same old patterns of erratic inconsistency.

And the bullpen? Woof. Around the middle of last week I started looking at some numbers on Trevor Hildenberger and working on a story. By the time I published it on Thursday night, it almost felt irrelevant.

Yeah, Hildenberger is broken right now, but his misfires are getting lost in a sea of relief malfunction. Tayler Rogers allowed seven hits and three walks in three innings after looking brutal in the Tampa Bay series. Fernando Rodney blew his second consecutive save on Thursday and narrowly avoided another one on Saturday with his control completely amiss. Tyler Kinley looked bad enough in his lone appearance against New York that the Twins finally ended their ill-advised experiment, designating him for assignment on Thursday.

Last week in this space I wrote that swapping Kinley out for Tyler Duffey felt imminent, given the latter's tremendous early success at Triple-A, and this was essentially the outcome of some roster shuffling that took place. But I don't think anyone could have predicted how mind-bogglingly bad Duffey would be in his first two major-league appearances of the season.

On Tuesday, Duffey entered as a reliever in the sixth inning against New York, trying to keep a 5-1 game within reach. He proceeded to give up three runs on a pair of homers. He next appeared on Friday night against Cincinnati, and managed to give up five runs (four earned) on four hits while recording one out. He poured gasoline on the fire Hughes had started. Duffey's latest appearance on Sunday counted as an improvement but included another monster home run. He was shipped back to Triple-A following the Reds series.

Outside of Ryan Pressly and Addison Reed, there's really not a single Minnesota reliever inspiring any kind of confidence right now.

But really, the true lowlight of the week was the bad news on Byron Buxton. We learned on Saturday that the center fielder suffered a hairline fracture in his big toe when he fouled a ball off his foot during a curious rehab stint in Ft. Myers. As of now he's "out indefinitely," with the club hoping he can make it back within a week or two. We'll see.

The Twins were 7-4 before Buxton went down with migraines ahead of the Puerto Rico series. They are 2-10 since. It's not a simple cause-and-effect equation, but this team needs Buck. That's become more obvious now than ever before.

TRENDING STORYLINE

There are a lot of reasons to feel down about the Twins, but from my view, the outlook for the rotation is relatively favorable, and that's a big reason for optimism that this club will get things turned around and start rattling off wins.

Gibson's convincing transformation was noted above. Odorizzi has had ups and downs, but generally looks like a quality mid-rotation starter. Berrios has shown what he's capable of, and I've got to believe/hope he's just going through a temporary downturn. Lynn is certainly the most frustrating enigma at this point, but it's important to keep in mind that he went through an abnormal spring training routine and has a long track record of getting it done. At least he's inducing whiffs (double-digit swinging strikes in all four starts). He's bound to settle in.

Hughes is the elephant in the room. He hasn't made it through even four innings in either of his first two starts. The righty has a 1.58 WHIP and 1.8 HR/9 rate dating back to 2016, and there is just no evidence suggesting he's going to be able to find a way to be effective again.

The substantial money owed to him through next year is a complicating factor, and may compel the team to give him just slightly more time to figure something out, but one way or another it feels like Hughes' days in Minny are numbered. Santana is said to be nearing a bullpen session, which would put him on a concrete timeframe. May is already making rehab starts at extended spring training. Fernando Romero and Stephen Gonsalves are both now a step away at Triple-A.

Help is on the way for this unit. We'll just have to see how quick the Twins will be to call on it. For now, it appears Hughes will get at least one more start. How much longer can a spiraling club keep running out a pitcher who gives them so little chance to compete?

DOWN ON THE FARM

* Finally, Gonsalves received his overdue promotion to Triple-A, after going 19-4 with a 2.23 ERA in the equivalent of a full MLB season at Chattanooga (32 starts, 182 innings). His debut for the Red Wings should come in Pawtucket this week.

* Meanwhile, Nick Gordon is still awaiting his Triple-A nod but it can't be too far off with the way he's been hitting. The shortstop owns a .341 batting average at Chattanooga and already has eight extra-base hits in 21 games.

* Twins Daily's No. 9 prospect Brusdar Graterol made a big leap this week with the move to full-season ball. In his first start at Low-A on Friday he showed dominant stuff, flashing 96-99 MPH with his fastball while striking out seven of the 17 batters he faced.

* Another good week for Royce Lewis at Cedar Rapids. The organization's top prospect went 7-for-21 with five RBI in six games, and stole three bases. He's slashing .333/.382/.412 for the Kernels.

* John Curtiss figures to joining the big-league club any day now. He's already on the 40-man roster, and is making a clear case for a promotion with his 2.89 ERA and 0.97 WHIP at Rochester. Curtiss has struck out 17 of the 38 batters he's faced, including five over 2 1/3 in a dazzling outing on Friday. There's a good chance he gets the call on Monday to replace Duffey.

LOOKING AHEAD

There's no respite on the horizon. With their bullpen already running thin, the Twins still have nine straight days of games ahead. The first three will come against a Toronto team that has historically tormented them to a degree only the Yankees can top. With Lynn and Hughes both scheduled to throw, Minnesota's lineup will need to step up and score some runs after a thoroughly disappointing final two days against Cincinnati, one of baseball's worst staffs. Luckily, it looks like the Twins will avoid Josh Donaldson, who's expected to come off the disabled list next weekend.

MONDAY, 4/30: BLUE JAYS @ TWINS – RHP Aaron Sanchez v. RHP Lance Lynn

TUESDAY, 5/1: BLUE JAYS @ TWINS – RHP Marco Estrada v. RHP Kyle Gibson

WEDNESDAY, 5/2: BLUE JAYS @ TWINS – RHP Marcus Stroman v. RHP Phil Hughes

THURSDAY, 5/3: TWINS @ WHITE SOX – RHP Jake Odorizzi v RHP Reynaldo Lopez

FRIDAY, 5/4: TWINS @ WHITE SOX – RHP Jose Berrios v. RHP Carson Fulmer

SATURDAY, 5/5: TWINS @ WHITE SOX – RHP Lance Lynn v. LHP Hector Santiago

SUNDAY, 5/6: TWINS @ WHITE SOX – RHP Kyle Gibson v. RHP James Shields

Catch Up On Twins Daily Game Recaps

• Game 17 | NYY 14, MIN 1: What Did We Expect?
  
• Game 18 | NYY 8, MIN 3: Resistance is Futile
  
• Game 19 | NYY 7, MIN 4: Lance Lynn is a Dumpster Fire Right Now
  
• Game 20 | NYY 4, MIN 3: Rodney Spoils Great Gibby Start, Twins Swept
  
• Game 21 | CIN 15, MIN 9: It Got Even Worse
  
• Game 22 | MIN 3, CIN 1: Losing Streak Snapped as Odorizzi Delivers Quality Start
  
• Game 23 | CIN 8, MIN 2: Berrios Bombs as Twins Drop Series to Cincy
  

More on Twins Daily

• What is driving Pressly's success here in April? Jamie Cameron called out the righty's release point consistency and slider location as two key contributors
  
• Ted Schwerzler took a look at the Fernando Rodney experience, which thus far hasn't been all the pleasant for Twins fans as the veteran has blown as many saves as he's converted.
  
• Parker Hageman asked: What's going on with Logan Morrison? He attempted to answer the question with one of his patented mechanical breakdowns.