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    Tough Decisions Are On Deck for the Twins

    Nick Nelson

    By Nick Nelson

    The Twins front office understandably planned around a variety of injury scenarios during the offseason, building in multiple layers of depth across the roster. 

    Dealing with potential overcrowding if people mostly stayed healthy was filed under the 'nice problem to have' label. However, coming up on one month into the season ... we might already be reaching that territory.

    Image courtesy of Vincent Carchietta-USA TODAY Sports

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    One of the less-discussed pleasant surprises in this young 2023 Twins season (perhaps because no one wants to jinx anything) is that the team has enjoyed pretty good health so far. With the exception of Kyle Farmer's scary HBP incident, the team has mostly avoided any serious injuries. Meanwhile, Jorge Polanco and Alex Kirilloff have been trekking along the comeback trail at a pace ahead of expectations.

    Polanco's already back and Kirilloff is making a case for his readiness at Triple-A. Farmer himself doesn't figure to be sidelined for too terribly long. It's interesting to envision a Twins roster with all three of these players on it, because you then have to consider who gets pushed off to make room.

    Willi Castro is the one clearly expendable piece on the bench at present. We can view him as a pretty clean one-for-one swap with Farmer, offering the same ability to play around the infield and hit from the right side. But how does Kirilloff fit in? 

    Like it or not, the Twins aren't bailing on Max Kepler this early. Joey Gallo is locked in and looks great. That leaves Nick Gordon and Trevor Larnach as the players whose roster spots are at risk.

    Neither is off to a particularly good start, but Gordon has been far worse. In 49 plate appearances, he has produced three singles, two doubles, one walk, and ... that's it. Among 301 players to accrue 40 or more plate appearances through Sunday, Gordon's .120 wOBA ranked dead last. This despite being shielded almost entirely from left-handed pitchers, whom he's only faced three times total.

    Larnach hasn't been great, but he's been a lot better than Gordon and is also a much clearer fixture in the Twins' future. Even if the production hasn't been there for Larnach since the first week, he's still taking good at-bats and making a lot of good contact. Not so much for Gordon.

    All other things being equal, sending Gordon down would be an easy call. He's barely playing as it is, with just one start in the team's past nine games. But all other things are not equal. Gordon is out of options, meaning that if the Twins want to take him off the roster, they'll need to expose him to waivers and likely lose him. 

    I might argue that's ... not the worst thing? Obviously Gordon is not as bad as he's looked so far, but even at his best he's sort of an odd fit on this roster – not the 1A starter at any position and maybe not even the top backup anywhere. The Twins could have made a semi-firm commitment to him in the offseason by trading Kepler and opening a corner spot, but instead they went the opposite direction by signing Gallo and further clogging up the lefty logjam. 

    Less than one month into the season, there are already experiencing the fallout of that decision. Gordon's time with the Twins is likely short. And Kepler could very well be next in the crosshairs, as his maddeningly underwhelming play continues and Matt Wallner carries a 1.000 OPS at Triple-A.

    Sometimes tough decisions are necessary, and ultimately for the best, even if they hurt at the time. The Twins are going to need to bear down and make some difficult calls, and circumstances are dictating that they'll need to do so sooner rather than later.

    Nick is a co-founder of Twins Daily who's been writing about the team for more than 15 years.
    Follow Nick Nelson on Twitter: NickNelsonMN

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    DocBauer

    DocBauer 22,264

  • Old-Timey Member

    • Posted

    5 hours ago, mikelink45 said:

    Not so tough - Gordon's composite for three years is 

    250 .295 .384 .679

     

    Trevor Larnach for the same period 

    227 .318 .371

    .689

     

    We can cut both at this stage.

    And Kepler - for those same three years has been 

    .222 .312 .353 .664

    We can cut him too.

    Willi Castro for that three year period is

    .229 .278 .359 .637

    Yes we can cut him too.

    So what is the hard decision - is it which one goes first?  

    There is room for Kiriloff, Lewis, Lee, Julien without any trouble at all. 

    Here's the problem with those numbers, and I'm NOT picking on you, anyone's opinion, or the players. This is about NOW as well as the FUTURE, even though it's early in 2023.

    First of all, Kirilloff has parts of 2yrs, and has an OPS of .693, so a little higher than Larnach or Gordon. But all 3 are relatively close in OPS over the past few years.

    But not only does Gordon have more total AB's, but his OPS is skewed higher due to his sudden 2nd half surge in 2022, while Larnach and Kirilloff are both skewed the opposite direction after performing well before still playing through injury before eventually hitting the IL.

    And if we want to play the numbers game...all 3 guys relatively young and no more than Gordon's max of 653 AB's...shouldn't we also look at the larger scale results of milb numbers? I mean, isn't that only fair since all 3 have been top rated prospects both in the Twins system as well as from MLB as a whole?

    CAREER MILB OPS:

    Kirilloff: .903

    Larnach: .824

    Gordon: .716

    Is Gordon a different type of player than AK and Larnach? You bet. But OPS is about all around production, not just differences in power. So if we look at ML OPS numbers that are very close, for 3 previous top prospects, all similar in age and not that different in ML time, 1 who has numbers skewed by a strong half season and the other 2 skewed by playing through injuries, the milb OPS of these players weighs heavily toward Kirilloff and Larnach, and future, potential contributions.

    In regard to Kepler, ignoring his 2019 OPS of .855, his 2016-2018 seasons produced an OPS of .732. Not great, but OK, to go along with great defense. Since 2019, however, his OPS has been .694, and been on a downward trajectory of .760, .719, .666, and .629 early in 2023. 

    Is there hope for Gordon and Kepler? ABSOLUTELY. But at some point, you have to look at NOW as well as the FUTURE. And despite Larnach being mediocre after his hot start, I believe he's 2nd on the team in RBI thus far. Is he really going to learn to hit ML breaking balls better at AAA? I doubt it. And he's actually showing some production and improvement so far. At some point, you HAVE to stick with the younger talent. While it stinks for Kirilloff to have to play the waiting game, similar to Ober and Varland from the pitching side, sometimes you have to play the waiting game for opportunity. AK just MIGHT have to be optioned to give him a little more time to just feel 100% confident in how he feels, OR, just to be ready when there's a roster spot open.

    But EVENTUALLY the Twins WILL have the roster crunch talked about in the OP. That might buy a little more time for Gordon and Kepler to get untracked. But again, who is part of the future? Gordon and Kepler are very questionable when you look at the young talent available, and coming up. Wallner, AK, Larnach, Julien, Lewis, Lee, and a couple others who might jump up, including a healthy Martin.

    To think there is a chance that the very solid, quality Farmer MIGHT NOT figure in to 2024 shows how much young talent is near ready is crazy good. So to debate a SSS from a couple of guys who MIGHT rebound is fun! 

    But to argue FOR Gordon and Kepler to "hold back" the future in case they can figure it out" is a strawman arguement for me, unless they ACTUALLY do so over the next few weeks. There's just too many, young, talented players ready, or near ready, to argue FOR Gordon or Kepler to be kept simply for love and hope.

    And this comes from a fan of both players, which I've stated repeatedly.

    At some point, the numbers are what they are. The performance is what it is. And building the best team is what's most important. 

     

    sftwinsfan

    sftwinsfan 401

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

    So, I guess we're looking to demote a guy that's currently 1st on the team in RBI, BB and OBP. 2nd in runs, 3rd in OPS & hits. I agree Larnach has struggled a bit, but he's still taking some quality at bats, especially compared to the rest of the team. I'd rather leave him at the major-league level and let him hopefully make adjustments. If he continues to struggle then I'm ok with him possibly going down, but we haven't gotten to that point yet. Yes, he's 26, but due to being a college player and not having a '20 minor league season he really only had one full minor league season, which was in '19. The injuries the last 2 years were unrelated, as long as he can stay healthy it's put up or shut up time for him. 

     

    I agree that Gordon has more versatility, but there's a lot of outfield options on this team and guys like Solano and Farmer can back up the infield spots. Most of his minor league career was a bit of a struggle. I'm sure plenty will disagree, but I don't think he really excels at anything. Pretty much the definition of a utility player. He was surprisingly red hot for a period last year, but I'm not sure how you can say that's who he is versus the rest of his professional career. 

     

    Kepler, as long as Gallo can produce and if AK forces things by continuing to hit in AAA (fingers crossed), I'd give Gallo his spot in RF. Always a guy I was high on over the years, but there aren't enough flyballs or difficult plays in RF to justify his bat. He'll get hot for a series, but then just seems to disappear for long periods. Hard to see them moving on from him though, they're still trying to put him out there hitting leadoff. 

    mikelink45

    mikelink45 17,670

  • Old-Timey Member

    • Posted

    14 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

    Marcus Semien was traded away after his first 927 Pas.  At the time his stat line was .251 / .304 / .396.  There are many other similar stories.  Many players need a few hundred or a thousand PAs to get going at the MLB level.  Obviously, history has some predictive value but there are far too many success stories after a slow start to conclude a player will never be good because of a stat line.  Talk about making decisions based on a spreadsheet.

    These are three year stats, not just this years.  I have always liked Gordon, hoped that Larnach would be a stud, but when it comes to cuts, they are on the chopping block. 

    mikelink45

    mikelink45 17,670

  • Old-Timey Member

    • Posted

    9 hours ago, DocBauer said:

    Here's the problem with those numbers, and I'm NOT picking on you, anyone's opinion, or the players. This is about NOW as well as the FUTURE, even though it's early in 2023.

    First of all, Kirilloff has parts of 2yrs, and has an OPS of .693, so a little higher than Larnach or Gordon. But all 3 are relatively close in OPS over the past few years.

    But not only does Gordon have more total AB's, but his OPS is skewed higher due to his sudden 2nd half surge in 2022, while Larnach and Kirilloff are both skewed the opposite direction after performing well before still playing through injury before eventually hitting the IL.

    And if we want to play the numbers game...all 3 guys relatively young and no more than Gordon's max of 653 AB's...shouldn't we also look at the larger scale results of milb numbers? I mean, isn't that only fair since all 3 have been top rated prospects both in the Twins system as well as from MLB as a whole?

    CAREER MILB OPS:

    Kirilloff: .903

    Larnach: .824

    Gordon: .716

    Is Gordon a different type of player than AK and Larnach? You bet. But OPS is about all around production, not just differences in power. So if we look at ML OPS numbers that are very close, for 3 previous top prospects, all similar in age and not that different in ML time, 1 who has numbers skewed by a strong half season and the other 2 skewed by playing through injuries, the milb OPS of these players weighs heavily toward Kirilloff and Larnach, and future, potential contributions.

    In regard to Kepler, ignoring his 2019 OPS of .855, his 2016-2018 seasons produced an OPS of .732. Not great, but OK, to go along with great defense. Since 2019, however, his OPS has been .694, and been on a downward trajectory of .760, .719, .666, and .629 early in 2023. 

    Is there hope for Gordon and Kepler? ABSOLUTELY. But at some point, you have to look at NOW as well as the FUTURE. And despite Larnach being mediocre after his hot start, I believe he's 2nd on the team in RBI thus far. Is he really going to learn to hit ML breaking balls better at AAA? I doubt it. And he's actually showing some production and improvement so far. At some point, you HAVE to stick with the younger talent. While it stinks for Kirilloff to have to play the waiting game, similar to Ober and Varland from the pitching side, sometimes you have to play the waiting game for opportunity. AK just MIGHT have to be optioned to give him a little more time to just feel 100% confident in how he feels, OR, just to be ready when there's a roster spot open.

    But EVENTUALLY the Twins WILL have the roster crunch talked about in the OP. That might buy a little more time for Gordon and Kepler to get untracked. But again, who is part of the future? Gordon and Kepler are very questionable when you look at the young talent available, and coming up. Wallner, AK, Larnach, Julien, Lewis, Lee, and a couple others who might jump up, including a healthy Martin.

    To think there is a chance that the very solid, quality Farmer MIGHT NOT figure in to 2024 shows how much young talent is near ready is crazy good. So to debate a SSS from a couple of guys who MIGHT rebound is fun! 

    But to argue FOR Gordon and Kepler to "hold back" the future in case they can figure it out" is a strawman arguement for me, unless they ACTUALLY do so over the next few weeks. There's just too many, young, talented players ready, or near ready, to argue FOR Gordon or Kepler to be kept simply for love and hope.

    And this comes from a fan of both players, which I've stated repeatedly.

    At some point, the numbers are what they are. The performance is what it is. And building the best team is what's most important. 

     

    This is not a call for demoting them.  It is simply a response to the question of who do we cut if we think we have someone more productive to call up. A team can only last so long playing with hope instead of production.

     

    Major League Ready

    Major League Ready 10,427

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

    3 minutes ago, mikelink45 said:

    These are three year stats, not just this years.  I have always liked Gordon, hoped that Larnach would be a stud, but when it comes to cuts, they are on the chopping block. 

    You would cut Larnach?  Do you mean send him back to AAA for the time being or just give up on him all together?

    mikelink45

    mikelink45 17,670

  • Old-Timey Member

    • Posted

    2 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

    You would cut Larnach?  Do you mean send him back to AAA for the time being or just give up on him all together?

    I don't advocate for cutting, dropping or anything else, but based on their production these are the players that the Twins can move - anyway they want - if we have a better player ready to come up. 

    Major League Ready

    Major League Ready 10,427

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

    5 minutes ago, mikelink45 said:

    I don't advocate for cutting, dropping or anything else, but based on their production these are the players that the Twins can move - anyway they want - if we have a better player ready to come up. 

    Which OFer do they have ready to come up that's better than Larnach?  They could put Kirilloff in the OF but it makes more sense to move Gallo to the OF and play Kirilloff at 1B.  He is a better 1B than an OFer and 1B will be his primary position beyond 2023.

    BTW Larnach has a wRC+ 10 points higher than Buxton. 

    mikelink45

    mikelink45 17,670

  • Old-Timey Member

    • Posted

    Just now, Major League Ready said:

    Which OFer do they have ready to come up that's better than Larnach?  They could put Kirilloff in the OF but it makes more sense to move Gallo to the OF and play Kirilloff at 1B.  He is a better 1B than an OFer and 1B will be his primary position beyond 2023.

    BTW Larnach has a wRC+ 10 points higher than Buxton.

    I agree with moving Gallo to the OF.  And I am not pleased with Buxton's production, but there is no way he is cut, demoted or anything else.  

    If seems as if people are reading my post as a statement that I want to get rid of these players.  In fact, I just want the best players on the 26 man roster and the cuts come from those who are underperforming. 

    Major League Ready

    Major League Ready 10,427

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

    17 minutes ago, mikelink45 said:

    I agree with moving Gallo to the OF.  And I am not pleased with Buxton's production, but there is no way he is cut, demoted or anything else.  

    If seems as if people are reading my post as a statement that I want to get rid of these players.  In fact, I just want the best players on the 26 man roster and the cuts come from those who are underperforming. 

    I appreciate where you are coming from.  You are just a week or two or three ahead of me in terms of how much time we give for the player to make adjustments.  In Larnach's case, he is an above average player measured by wRC+ so I don't see a problem that needs immediate attention.   I am also wondering who would you promote to take Larnach's spot in the OF?  

    BTW .... I think there is a pretty good chance he goes down when Farmer is ready to come back.  Their other options will be Gordon and Solano given there is no way they move Taylor.

    mikelink45

    mikelink45 17,670

  • Old-Timey Member

    • Posted

    1 hour ago, Major League Ready said:

    I appreciate where you are coming from.  You are just a week or two or three ahead of me in terms of how much time we give for the player to make adjustments.  In Larnach's case, he is an above average player measured by wRC+ so I don't see a problem that needs immediate attention.   I am also wondering who would you promote to take Larnach's spot in the OF?  

    BTW .... I think there is a pretty good chance he goes down when Farmer is ready to come back.  Their other options will be Gordon and Solano given there is no way they move Taylor.

    Solano is doing what they want and need.  I do not think he is ready to be sent away.  

    286 .355 .357 .712

    Gordon looked so good last year, but with Farmer and Solano he is expendable.  Of course I would let Castro go first.  

    I would move Gallo to the OF and put Kiriloff at first base.  I would probably bring Wallner back up and give him a longer period to adjust.  

    cjj td

    cjj td 98

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

    21 hours ago, Hunter McCall said:

    I've been thinking this exact thing for the last couple weeks. Gordon has been atrocious so far and is getting outplayed by everyone. Originally, I assumed the Twins would DFA Donovan Solano once everyone was healthy, but you can't do that.

    On top of Gordon's poor performance so far, the Twins also have reinforcements coming. Royce Lewis, Brooks Lee, Eduoard Julien, and Austin Martin all could fill very similar roles in the future that Nick Gordon has filled in the past, and likely be much better at them. This softens any potential blow of losing Gordon.

    It will be an interesting decision for the team to make if/when they call up AK and Kyle Farmer returns from the IL. Good article!

    Bingo

     

     

    Battle ur tail off

    Battle ur tail off 1,666

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

    On 4/24/2023 at 10:00 AM, roger said:

    Interesting dilemma, Nick.

    And one that is arriving a bit sooner than expected.  I have more faith in Larnach than bighat and probably others.  With that said, I do believe he could use more time at AAA.  And that will likely be the move when AK gets activated next Monday.  Like Larnach, AK can play both corner outfield spots as well as first base.  Will be interesting to see whether he plays mostly at first with Gallo in left, or Gallo will stay at first with AK in left?

    They really don't have a good backup at both short and third until Farmer returns.  That's why I expect Castro will hang around until his return, then be optioned to the Saints. 

    Does Gordon eventually move on, yes.  But I see that being delayed until summer when Lewis returns.  Will give Nick time to improve his hitting so the Twins will get something in return.

     

    I'm fine with him going to AAA for a bit. It will not be long until Kiriloff injures his wrist anyway IMO. They are basically the same player, ride the hot one and move back and forth as needed. 

    Schmoeman5

    Schmoeman5 3,193

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

    On 4/24/2023 at 11:53 AM, Aerodeliria said:

    Although I mentioned this on the wrong thread, I feel there is no reason to keep Gordon. There are Nick Gordon clones available here and there. He is taking up a spot that could be filled with a more productive option. Bring up Julien. His OBP will be much higher in the long run and you don't lose that much flexibility.

    So this question. Polanco is back manning 2nd. Farmer will be back and Solano are the 2 infield utility guys with Gordon. Even if you demote Gordon, and bring up Julien, where is he going to play? I guess you could do that now, but then you'll send him right back as soon as Farmer returns. And also take into consideration Kiriloffs return. We're not supposed to do math here but Kirilloff Polanco Correa Miranda with Solano and Farmer as utility infielders 2 catchers Buxton as dh leaves room for 4 outfielders. Larnach/Gordon, Kepler Gallo and Taylor. No room for Julien. Same thing for all these guys calling for Lee or whoever is the current flavor of the month. Those guys time may come this year, but only due to injuries. 

    Whitey333

    Whitey333 3,633

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

    Gordon is definitely struggling at the plate.  However using that logic to get rid of Gordon fails to take into account the many others in the lineup struggling.  We wouldn't have much of a lineup if we got rid of all the struggling players.  I've got to think that Gordon will be gone.  Also relying on players like Martin, Lewis, Julien, and even Kirilloff haven't proved much if anything at the big league level.  It will be interesting to see what the Twins do.

    Schmoeman5

    Schmoeman5 3,193

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

    On 4/24/2023 at 12:09 PM, bighat said:

    This type of statement has been said about Larnach for the past 3 years. He's been hurt a LOT, and the only times he's been given the opportunity to play for long stretches, he's been very bad. Anyone can cherry pick a couple good weeks - just look at the final stats he's put up any year he's played. It's not pretty!  

    We are fans, sure. But we have to be adults and remember that just because you want him to be good, doesn't mean he is good or will be good. Let's all stop pretending that 27 year-old guys who have been in the league for 3 years are "prospects". 

    If you put Larnach's numbers next to some unfamiliar name in the Pittsburgh Pirates system, and you wouldn't think twice about him. Look up Larnach's name in the similarity index on statcast, and you'll see: Kyle Garlic, Nelson Velazquez, and Kerry Carpenter as the most similar matches. Are we still excited? Why? Because he mashed college pitching at Oregon State 6 years ago?

    We've been saying "Wait and see" on Larnach forever. Dude, we've waited. And we've seen. And I don't think we're going to get much out of this guy and the sooner we all realize it, the better off we'll be. 

    And it's been the same for Kiriloff and Lewis. They've both been injured multiple years but you're going to anoint them. Kiriloffs numbers are similar to Larnachs. He tried playing for around 6 weeks with his injury last year and his numbers fell off dramatically. I'd rather have Larnach as my everyday outfielder over Kepler. He's done nothing for 3+ years. And I hear defensively how great he is. Well he sure hasn't looked that great this year. Or are you going to say. Oh it's been cold, wait till it warms up. 

    Mike Sixel

    Mike Sixel 55,015

  • Old-Timey Member

    • Posted

    2 hours ago, Schmoeman5 said:

    And it's been the same for Kiriloff and Lewis. They've both been injured multiple years but you're going to anoint them. Kiriloffs numbers are similar to Larnachs. He tried playing for around 6 weeks with his injury last year and his numbers fell off dramatically. I'd rather have Larnach as my everyday outfielder over Kepler. He's done nothing for 3+ years. And I hear defensively how great he is. Well he sure hasn't looked that great this year. Or are you going to say. Oh it's been cold, wait till it warms up. 

    Who anointed anyone? People are saying have patience. 

    Major League Ready

    Major League Ready 10,427

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

    4 hours ago, Battle ur tail off said:

    I'm fine with him going to AAA for a bit. It will not be long until Kiriloff injures his wrist anyway IMO. They are basically the same player, ride the hot one and move back and forth as needed. 

    I am curious about the wrist but don't feel remotely qualified to offer an opinion as to the likelihood of it holding up.  Not only do I NOT possess the very specialized skill set to offer an informed opinion.  I also have no information from the medical staff as to how he is doing.  Perhaps you could lend me your crystal ball.  

    Wizard11

    Wizard11 475

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

    There is some deep irony about a lengthy debate amongst Twins fans as to which healthy players should be on the roster.  A quick glance in the rear view mirror suggests that many of these issues will resolve organically.  Let’s not underestimate the capacity for this team to find ways to get injured.

    Kirilloff is still on his 20 day rehab period.  When that ends soon we will probably have our first roster friction point

    MTV

    MTV 193

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

    Option Castro and Larnach once Kirilloff and Farmer are ready, start Kirilloff mostly at first, have Gallo in either Right (for Gordon) or Left (for Kepler), and platoon Kepler/Gordon. See if one of these two can get the bat going, if not then they’ll be expendable by the deadline. I think Kepler definitely goes, while Gordon is an in-between. If his bat can heat up then there’s a reason for keeping him. 

    Mike Sixel

    Mike Sixel 55,015

  • Old-Timey Member

    • Posted

    15 minutes ago, MTV said:

    Option Castro and Larnach once Kirilloff and Farmer are ready, start Kirilloff mostly at first, have Gallo in either Right (for Gordon) or Left (for Kepler), and platoon Kepler/Gordon. See if one of these two can get the bat going, if not then they’ll be expendable by the deadline. I think Kepler definitely goes, while Gordon is an in-between. If his bat can heat up then there’s a reason for keeping him. 

    Larnach? Uh, no.



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