Twins Daily Roundtable: Grading Molitor

I would hope that Molitor's fate relies on more than just a W/L record. There are circumstances that are beyond a managers control that influence that. I would hope that the decision makers look at things that directly correlate to those things that a manager does have an impact on. Some of these things we can't know fully as fans, like how his players respond to him. Other things we can know more fully, like how the team plays fundamentally. 

At the end of the day, it's not the losing that bothers me. It's how they lose. I can handle getting beat by a team that was simply better that particular day. What drives me nuts is when they lose because they're wasting outs on the base paths, or fail to understand how to execute situational baseball plays. Beating yourself like this team often does is what bothers me. Sloppy play is correctable. Good teams will have those kinds of games now and then, but bad teams do it far more frequently. There's been a lot of it this season and over Molitor's tenure.

Read "Three Nights in August" and you'll learn everything that a good manager does (in incredible detail), and what Molitor probably doesn't do. It covers what baseball managers do (or should do) in minute detail to prepare for an opponent, to understand his players, and to win a game or two.

Okay, here's just one example in the comparison of Maddon v. Molitor:

 

1. At the end of the 2017 season, Molitor would not have used Lackey as a relief pitcher in the last game of the regular season, which the Cubs lost because of Lackey.

 

2. Then, in the first game of the playoffs, Molitor would not have gone to Lackey at the end of the game for 1.2 innings and 27 pitches.

 

3. Then, even if he had done either or both of the previous two things (that he wouldn't have done), he definitely would not have put Lackey in at the end of Game 2 to blow the game for the Cubs.

 

Therefore, Molitor is better at managing his bullpen than Maddon.

 

P.S. There are other great examples of Maddon being terrible at managing his bullpen from the 2016 WS.

I'd argue using one player's usage over a small time frame to attack another manager is where the unnecessary extremes happened.  

 

We wouldn't declare Tyler Austin better than Eddie Rosario based on the last ten days.  And therein lies the real problem with this discussion - we simply don't have good metrics, with strong sample sizes, from which to draw conclusions.  Instead we draw sweeping conclusions like "Well Molitor would never do this one thing that some one other guy did one or two times!" and think the argument has merit.

 

It doesn't.  Most of our observable criteria for managers are impossible to put into context, so we are driven almost entirely by perception rather than fact.  And that observable criteria is but a shred of the manager's job, the rest of which we don't see at all.  I get why we want to do it and feel compelled to do it....but we should probably take some time to consider the limits of our ability to do so.

I'm doing a terrible job defining my viewpoint and by scattering it from thread to thread, I'm not helping my context.

For clarity... I am trying my best to be even handed in my opinion of Molitor. I'm not calling for his head because of all things we don't see and therefore don't know. But obviously... I have points of contention based on what I can see. 

For more clarity on my opinion on the job Molitor did this year.

When I consider that 6 of our every day 9 players were incredibly disappointing for MONTHS.

When I consider that our starting rotation was average.

When I consider that our bullpen (while also average), led the league in blown saves.

When I consider all of that.

I'll even go as far to say that Molitor did an amazing job just to be sitting with a .470 winning percentage. 

However... I compare that compliment to the guy who was able to juggle while riding a unicycle for 1 minute before dropping the balls. Very impressive but also questionable because the guy can juggle for 5 minutes without dropping the balls when he is NOT on the unicycle. In my opinion... by staying with those struggling guys for MONTHS almost exclusively... He made winning harder and now that .470 winning percentage doesn't seem so impressive to me. I'd like to see him get off the unicycle by 2019.

Here is how I got here step by step and how David Bote became relevant in my eyes. 

1. It all starts with my contention that Molitor didn't adjust to the conditions that developed during the course of the season. He stuck with struggling players and didn't try something else. Those who argue this, state that he had nobody else to try and I understand that thinking but I still say that we have a 25 man roster and I don't believe that you can't find someone on that 25 man roster or 40 man roster who can't out produce a .184 BA and .644 OPS at the DH position. They selected Grossman, Adrianaza and LaMarre and they had to reasonably expect that someone would get hurt or someone could possibly go bad on you. In a nutshell... No matter how much Grossman is hated by others. He should have played considerably more than Morrison did based on what they were producing. The job Molitor had to do was hard because player performance made it hard but I believe it was made near impossible because he didn't get off the unicycle.

2. Next I check to see if this is what all managers do. Sadly, Molitor is probably in the majority, Molitor goes into the Buck Showalter majority group who will play Chris Davis with his .565 OPS every single day and won't deviate. However, there is minority group of managers who are on the other side of that and they are the ones who will play David Bote and Max Muncy and slow down the playing time of the established player to accommodate solid play from out of nowhere type players. I have no proof that one style is better than the others but I have no doubt in my mind what I prefer. Maybe, Molitor would play Bote, but based on the loyalty he showed to our 6 struggling every day players (he did the same thing in 2016), his actions say differently. I contend that the Dodgers and Cubs end up creating their own depth this way and the Twins struggle finding depth this way. 

It is not a declaration that Bote is better than Schwarber or Happ based on 10 days because I realize that Bote may be back in Iowa as soon as he cools off and he just might do that. However, as long as he is on the roster and helping... Maddon will give him at-bats.

I'm saying that we have a 25 man roster and I'd like to see Molitor get off the unicycle and start getting serious about his juggling. 

I'm not saying that Astundillo should replace Rosario. When that is thrown back at me... I'm clearly not being understood or am clearly not being taken seriously. 

I'm not sure why you keep dismissing lack of depth on this team when discussing Molitor starting incredibly disappointing players for months. 
 

 

Who are the Twins going to create MLB depth from in that lineup? Taylor Featherston and his .189 BA? Jermaine Curtis? I suppose they could have called up Astudillo and Cave earlier than they did.



In regards to the Dodgers and Cubs creating their own depth from unlikely sources, it's easier to do when they're actually producing at the AAA level.

Max Muncy spent the entire 2017 season in AAA batting .309 with a .905 OPS. David Bote had 2 years of .800+ OPS production at AA and AAA. Where do you see that on the Rochester Red Wings roster?

So where does that leave Molitor? How does he and others create MLB quality depth from a depleted roster in AAA?

I'll respond to each part sectioned off in order

1. I dismiss it very easily and this is how. Lets forget about sub-par play and AAA and just focus on this: 

Every year there are injuries. Sometime they are needing day to rest a hamstring or get over a cold.  Sometimes it is just a 10 day DL stay. Sometimes it is months on the the shelf and sometimes they are shutting a player down for the year. They happen every year to every team and at frequency. There is no possible way that a front office can overlook this. If they put together a roster and say we got a starting 9 and we won't ever need those bench guys to play full time. They are under qualified for the position. 

So... if you consider the injuries that always happen. I think I'm safe to assume, that the club rostered Grossman, Adrianaza and LaMarre with full expectation that there will be injuries, therefore would have rostered them with the mindset that they are capable. 

OK... Now let's add Sub-Par play from the starting 9 to the discussion. If you rostered a player based on a faith that they can cover for an injured player. Why wouldn't you use them, when the player is not injured but playing really really bad.

If the Manager doesn't believe in any player placed on the 25 man roster and is willing to absorb the results from Morrison and Buxton instead. That is an issue because there is no way a front office would roster a player who couldn't be trusted with every day playing time unless they didn't consider the possibility that someone will get hurt and the starting 9 are just going to play like they assumed. This might be bad 25 man roster management beyond Molitor's control but I have a hard time believing that the front office or room didn't believe in Grossman, Adrianaza or LaMarre. The play was bad... I believe a Manager there is a point where a manager needs to play anybody else. 

2. If they don't have depth at AAA they need to acquire it. Many of on Twinsdaily, look at a AAAA acquisition in the off-season and Yawn but it can be important because if you hit, it's a free player. I think that the acquisition of Jake Cave was an attempt at doing that. All in All, I think the scouts need to do a better job of identifying it and acquiring it.I also believe it would be helpful, if the Twins got a reputation of giving a legitimate chance to those who perform. I do not blame Molitor for lack of depth at the AAA level but I will look his direction whenever someone is on the 25 man roster and not utilized on a team with struggling players. If you give them a uniform... give them a chance to keep the uniform. 

3. See #2... The Dodgers are very very good at it. Justin Turner, Chris Taylor, Kike Hernandez and Max Muncy have all been "Who are these guys acquisitions". that paid off big time and they have depth coming out of their ears and it isn't because they bought it like many assume. In my opinion, a very important reason that Turner, Taylor, Hernandez and Muncy were identified and producing at the major league level is because they played them. If Logan Forsythe isn't performing, they don't play Forsythe. They go with Max Muncy. I do not believe the Twins would do this. I believe that they will stay with Forsythe. Is that a fair belief... No because I have no idea but all I can do is look at how they handled things this year and pretty soon you belief that is quite plausible that they would stick with Forsythe and then claim that they had nobody better. 

4. Muncy was released regardless... Bote was average. We may not have anyone at roster with those numbers but there are other Muncy and Bote type players out there. 

5. By not blocking guys who could become something with players who are not being anything. 

Basically... by refusing to go down with the ship. 

1) At the moment, the worst starter on the Cubs has an OPS better than six of the Twins starters. With the talent the Cubs have they have to be considered an exception. Anyone can find an exception to any rule. Find me a team with a similar talent level to the Twins, but with a better record, and we'll talk about it.

 

2) You want high OBP players batting higher in the order, generally. Did you look up Bryant's OBP?

 

3) Why would you cite articles instead of looking at the source data? Secondary sources are rubbish, and it's not like it's hard to find baseball stats.

This is a cop-out and the kind of argument about manages that really irritates me.  You tried to slam Molitor for hititng a power hitter lead-off and immediately got that point demolished by truth/facts/evidence.  You don't get to move the goal-posts and then accuse Van of not sufficiently answering the question.  You said this:

If you want a concrete example, can you name any other team that used their power bat to lead off?

The answer is yes.  Lots of them.  And lots of the other complaints you and others have are driven only through a limited knowledge of what other teams are doing.  Not facts, but by the absence of them.  Jimmer has pointed this out about fans and bullpen management.  Again - the vast majority of these criticisms lack relevant context and, because of that, aren't all that relevant at all.

The counterexample is in St. Louis, where Matt Carpenter could easily have been benched. I picked him up off waivers in a 16-team league. He was that bad into mid-May. Now, he's an MVP candidate because they stuck with him. Sometimes you have to have faith that a good player going through a slump will come out of it. However, I get your point that there are some times when you need to sit a guy who's going through a slump because he's hurting the team.

 

It's tough to criticize Molitor for sticking with Dozier, since we've all seen him go through extended slumps, and then go on a tear out of nowhere.  Buxton shouldn't have been playing with his bad toe, but given his value defensively, it's hard to justify sitting him on the bench if he's on the roster. I don't know enough about Morrison's history to know whether sticking with him made any sense. He was kind of a tease. In May, he made it look like he was coming out of his slump, only to go back into it.

 

This is a very difficult area for a manager. You can only know what's the right choice in retrospect, and by then it's too late if you made the wrong choice.

 

Like many things, I also don't believe there's an old school/new school approach either. It's not like Maddon's immediate reaction is always to replace a guy. In 2016, he stuck with Jason Heyward through the entire season during which Heyward posted a .631 OPS, good for an OPS+ of 68. Heyward tortured Cubs fans with 592 plate appearances that year. Anthony Rizzo struggled early in 2017, and instead of benching him, Maddon stuck with him and moved him around in the batting order.

 

So I don't think this line of criticism for Molitor is an easy one to defend this year, when he had a handful of guys that could have been benched for their performance, some of whom have proven track records, and some of whom are key players to this team. And I definitely don't think that you can or should categorize Molitor as "Old School" (and therefore wrong about everything) based on him not benching players who were slumping.

In my mind it is pretty simple... You have a 25 man roster. Utilize it. You never have to bench Carpenter completely... it isn't an either or proposition. When Carpenter starts pulling out of it, find a spot for him but two months of bad play will get your manager fired. 

Forsythe with the Dodgers was bad... The Dodgers never benched him completely. They gave him starts 5 out of 10 games. 

Yes... Maddon will stick with guys and I would to... But Maddon will minimize the damage that they do. 

Old School/New School is my designation and definition. Call it what you want but there is a clear difference how Roberts will handle his 25 man roster and how Molitor and Showalter handle their rosters. I know what I prefer. 

Concrete evidence.

https://www.theringer.com/2017/3/31/16040426/2017-mlb-preview-leadoff-hitter-revolution-george-springer-kyle-schwarber-2e49f6ff7c58

Also, this.

https://www.mlb.com/news/mlb-teams-putting-top-hitters-at-top-of-lineup/c-265696482

Maddon doesn't understand his job either, I guess by batting Schwarber and Bryant 1-2 in the lineup. Nor does Brian Snitker, who continues to bat Acuna and Freeman 1-2 in his lineup.

Bautista led off for a while in Toronto too, I believe.

It really isn't all that uncommon.

So now it's the Dodgers?

 

Okay, the Dodgers have 14 guys with 101+ ABs.

The Twins have 14 guys with 99+ ABs.

The Dodgers have 15 guys with 90+ ABs

The Twins have 16 guys with 90+ ABs

The Dodgers have 3 guys with 400+ ABs

The Twins have 3 guys with 400+ ABs

 

Not much difference in the number of players and how often they were used. The obvious big difference is that the Dodgers have better players.

 

And just for good measure:

The Cubs have 4 guys with 400+ ABs and only 13 guys with 90+ ABs. Looks like Maddon is riding his main guys pretty hard, no?

 

Does this make Maddon Old School? Does this make Molitor and Roberts New School?

 

Ask yourself honestly, would Maddon or Roberts do better with the Twins this year than Molitor?

Do injuries change the dynamic?

Right now, the Cubs and Dodgers each have approximately 200 more plate appearances than the Twins. So that number is decreased a bit.

 

The Cubs have about 100 more ABs and the Dodgers have about 50 more ABs.

If you go through every major league team. I think you'll find that all the teams have similar numbers. There is slight variance in the total team numbers but almost all teams are going to have 4 or 5 over 400 AB's and 13 to 15 players with at least 100 AB's. 

Due to 27 outs being the standard, All the teams have a similar amount of AB's and similar roster space. 

1. Molitor did use those players (Adrianza, LaMarre, and Grossman) to supplement bad play from the starting 9. You were leading the LaMarre opportunity club... He played good baseball for a week, and after that, he was not good for a longer period of time. Adrianza played more than anticipated because of Polanco's suspension and he did okay. Grossman is Grossman and manages to find his way in the lineup quite a bit.

So what are you advocating there? That the Twins needed more alternatives in case of injury? I agree. The options were very limited and that's not on Molitor. That's on the FO negotiating contracts with the players.

2. Yep, they needed to acquire more help at AAA. Again, that's on the FO not providing a realistic MLB alternative. The Red Wings roster for position players is unacceptable.

3. The Dodgers and Cubs of the world have the luxury of picking up these guys and developing them in the minors. Muncy as I said before crushed in AAA for a full season and April 2018 before getting his chance. The Twins don't have a Muncy on roster. That is not Molitor's fault.

All of these points make it appear in my eye you're blaming the wrong person. You should be mad at Falvine for not acquiring AAAA types that could be useful in the MLB. You should be mad that they're not constantly picking up waiver wire guys in hopes they turn into a Max Muncy.

Molitor and the coaching staff aren't miracle workers here. They can only work with the talent they're given. And it hasn't been good for a long time.

1. No... Ryan LaMarre received 69 AB's (out of his 99 with the Twins) from May 29 to June 23. Why then? Buxton was hurt... He was about to go on the D.L. LaMarre had to wait nearly two months until Buxton was put on the DL to end his 2018 before he got a chance. 

BTW... LaMarre hit .263 with a .313 OBP with the Twins. 

LaMarre is now up to .288 with a .333 OBP and a .727 OPS with the White Sox. 

Byron Buxton who got the playing time by starting 26 of his 28 healthy games hit .156 with an OBP of .183 and an OPS of .383 but LaMarre had to wait until Buxton got hurt first. 

LaMarre may have been a bad choice for depth and Buxton maybe the greatest prospect in Twins history but LaMarre was better than Buxton by quite a bit in 2018. Molitor was juggling on his unicycle making it much harder. 

2. Agreed

3. Why do the Dodgers and Cubs have the luxury? 

My point isn't about AAAA types specifically. I am using Muncy and Bote as examples to say... "Play someone else" "Anyone Else" Ryan LaMarre, Gregorio Petit, Will Middlebrooks or Jim Gaffigan... I don't care. We had guys who were playing every single day and killing us. 

 

Ask yourself honestly, would Maddon or Roberts do better with the Twins this year than Molitor?

Honestly... I have asked myself that. I've been researching this since June. 

I posted this back on July 1.

http://twinsdaily.com/topic/30462-twins-game-started/?hl=%2Bdave+%2Broberts

I don't know the answer to your question, but yes... I am still under the opinion that Dave Roberts wouldn't have allowed Buxton, Morrison, Sano, Dozier, Kepler and Wilson to do the damage they did for as long as they did and therefore would have done better than Molitor with the Twins. But... I want to stress, that I don't know the answer to your question, none of us do.

I also fully recognize that it's hard for anyone to plug 6 holes with the roster limitations.