Pitcher Injuries are Plaguing the Game. Are the Twins Different, or Due?

Beyond major betting scandals and uniforms ripping apart, one other story has dominated the start of the Major League Baseball season: pitching injuries. A recent slew of stories—from Ben Lindbergh, Lindsey Adler, and even an anonymous MLB pitcher—has covered the string of star pitchers who have lost significant time to elbow trouble, including Gerrit Cole, Shane Bieber, and top Marlins prospect Eury Pérez. That’s on top of major pitchers out before the season began, including Shohei Ohtani, Sandy Alcántara, and Jacob deGrom. Tyler Glasnow discussed the issue on Sunday Night Baseball on ESPN.

The issue has become part of a cold war between owners and players. Tony Clark, head of the Major League Baseball Players Association, issued a statement blaming new rule changes that were implemented without any player votes. The league fired back, noting the mounds of research that suggest other issues are at play.

Whatever the causes, Twins fans might be relieved to see that the list of injured pitchers has not included any of their top starters. That. however, invites the question: have the Twins found a way to improve their pitchers without sustaining injury? Or should we brace ourselves to see Pablo López or Bailey Ober walking off the mound grabbing their arm with a year-long recovery timeline?

Most Twins fans may scoff at the idea that the team has not been plagued with injuries. Since 2020, the Twins have had six pitchers suffer major injuries that essentially ended their seasons. But most of them come with an asterisk. Anthony DeSclafani came over as damaged goods (and arguably as a necessary part of the financial balancing act to make the Jorge Polanco trade happen). The same could be said of Tyler Mahle and Chris Paddack, who each had significant injury histories and weren't yet out of the woods with regard to previous issues when the team traded for them. One might ask why the Twins acquired pitchers who were so plainly due for injury, but the team's pitching development approach did not cause those issues. 

That leaves two notable injuries: Kenta Maeda and reliever José De León. After pitching to a Cy Young runner-up finish in the shortened 2020 season, Maeda saw diminished velocity throughout 2021 before requiring an internal brace repair after 21 starts. That said, Maeda was injury-prone throughout his career, and the Los Angeles Dodgers had in part designed his contract with such risk in mind. That only leaves De León, a reliever who pitched 17 1/3 innings for Minnesota in 2023, who came to the team as a minor-league free agent at the start of the season. While it was a frustrating injury, this was not the same as a top-line starter.

Part of the interest here is the fact that Twins pitching philosophy has significantly changed with Pete Maki becoming the full-time pitching coach following the departure of Wes Johnson. The talk of the town in Spring Training in 2022 was the added velocity from every pitcher, which not only carried throughout last season but has continued since, on both fastballs and off-speed pitches. Many of the top pitchers have visited Driveline, which others see as a culprit.

While the causes of more pitcher injuries are myriad, velocity is seen as a top culprit. Pitchers—from high school to All Stars—are now almost entirely focused on velocity as a central goal. As one anonymous pitching coach told The Athletic, “Pitchers and analysts pursue velo. The pitchers that don’t do this retire. The ones that stay take on some injury risk to avoid working at Costco.”  

So what does that mean for the Twins’ staff? Last year, the staff avoided any major injuries; the most notable one was Joe Ryan’s groin strain. And while the bullpen is slightly depleted to begin the year, no one’s injury has hinted at likely heading for Tommy John. 

So perhaps Maki is doing things differently. In an article about López’s more effective and elite sweeper, the pitcher suggested it was more the grip than any other changes. “The seams are doing the work for you.” Ryan also worked over the offseason to change his grip and find more velocity. Others have suggested some warning signs, however.

For Maki’s part, he has said in interviews that his goal is not to reach for high velocity. "I think we are still a pitch to contact [organization]…The whole pitch to contact, and wanting misses, and wanting strikeouts, that coexists together for us.” But the Twins, so far, are acting as a strikeout team, ranking 1st in the majors for strikeouts per nine innings and third-lowest in xFIP. And even if they're not reaching for it, the Twins throw the fifth-hardest fastballs (four-seamers and sinkers) in MLB so far this year--and that's with Durán on the injured list.

Maybe there's one explanation worth considering, though we can't come anywhere near calling it conclusive: The Twins throw fast fastballs, but they also throw very few fastballs. So far this season, only the Red Sox (who recently hired Justin Willard away from the Twins to act as their director of pitching) have thrown fewer heaters than Minnesota. If velocity is the enemy, leaning on your breaking stuff might not just be about piling up whiffs at the risk of extra walks. It might be a way to protect your arm, too.

Pitcher injuries are no fun, even when they happen to opponents. It's more fun to see the Twins crush Shane Bieber than not to see him at all. But the bigger worry is whether there is a ticking time bomb. The Twins' pitching and training staff should be carefully monitoring these arms. With very little depth this season, one Tommy John surgery could cost the entire season.