Three Twins Takeaways from ZIPS and Steamer Projections

I started by sorting both groupings by WAR and noticed right away that Randy Dobnak was projected quite a bit differently. ZIPS has him projected for a WAR of 2.1 whereas Steamer is at just 0.7. For reference, Dobnak contributed a 0.8 fWAR in 2019 in just 28 1/3 innings pitched. Comparing K/9, BB/9, HR/9, and ERA it’s clear that Steamer doesn’t quite buy into his 2019 campaign like ZIPS does, although the biggest explanation for this is innings pitched. Steamer has him pitching just 90 innings in 2020 whereas ZIPS has him at 147 innings. Regardless, a 0.7 fWAR over 90.0 innings is quite a bit different than 0.8 fWAR in 28 1/3 innings. It would be fair to temper expectations for the Twins 2019 Minor League Pitcher of the Year, as he only gets to 147 innings due to injuries from the starting staff.

Many Twins fans are awaiting the true breakout of Jose Berrios and view 2020 as the year it will happen. After a good first half in 2019 he struggled to carry that into the second half of the season. Unfortunately, both ZIPS and Steamers view him as a “quality” starter in 2020 which isn’t what you want to hear about your number one. Quite literally, both projections have him average six innings per start and giving up close to three runs, although ZIPS is slightly more optimistic on him which turned out to be a theme between the two projections. Essentially, both projections view him as a slightly better version of Kyle Gibson’s career as a Twin which is another thing you don’t want to hear about your number one.

On the offensive side, Twins utility man and third catcher Willians Astudillo is projected quite a bit differently. ZIPS has him contributing 1.5 WAR whereas Steamer has him at just a 0.3 WAR. This is largely due to Steamer projecting him for just 50 at-bats, which is realistic considering the signing of Alex Avila and 2019 emergence of both Jake Cave and Ehire Adrianza as quality role players. Like Dobank, at this point in his career, Astudillo’s comical character may overshadow his flaws as a contributor at the major league level.

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