Three Risks of Moving Griffin Jax into a Starting Role

20 minutes ago, DocBauer said:

The beautiful game that is MLB sometimes appears stuck in it's ways far too often in certain aspects. But then again, it's also got a natural flow of change that happens over time. Power is up, speed went way down until at least a slight comeback recently, starters are seldom 200IP mainstays any longer, bullpen have become more important and roles are defined differently, etc. But over all the decades I've watched the game, I've seen very few relievers turned in to quality starters. A few teams have tried it recently with mixed results. So I have to wonder if this is a fad, or something that might continue to grow.

It may work more often now because MLB asks less of starters than at any time in the past. 85-100 pitches is perfectly acceptable now but it wouldn't have been in 1990.

1 hour ago, old nurse said:

If Jax continues to pitch as he did last year you think he would not be elite?

Why do you think he can't be more than a back of the rotation starter? The whole idea of taking the risk is to get another top of the rotation arm like Lopez, Ober and Ryan. I agree, there isn't much to be gained if Jax is another Chris Paddack.

3 hours ago, JD-TWINS said:

If he insists, we have to let him be a SP - why? He works for the Team & will be paid around $2.5M for ‘25. This is hardly an indentured servant position………do companies pay/promote the 26 year olds that think they could or should be Vice President of the operation? No. Employees need to be treated fairly but not completely coddled. The Twins gave him an opportunity to be a starter & it didn’t work - they have worked together to develop him into an excellent reliever. Both sides have contributed and both sides have benefited.

I think they should elevate Jax to being the closer and trade Duran & others for a Bat. Team gets better - Jax makes more $$ going forward - everybody wins. He doesn’t need to be tried as a starter because that’s what he wants to do………Royce Lewis wants to play SS but that’s not happening!

Team doesn’t need a 3rd or 4th guy in the rotation that they have to be concerned about after he reaches 125 innings. Also, they need to maintain their edge in the bullpen as well & Jax is key to achieving that end.

Agreed from top to bottom.  But, then again, this is a team that let Max refuse to play CF simply because he didn't want to.  🙃

I tend to think that management will let Jax have the same veto power.  One can only hope he makes the right call when the time comes.  

The way the Twins handle pitchers it's not like he's going to get many more innings. Five innings a week as a starter or four innings as a reliever. If the guy can start, let him start. 

17 hours ago, Coach said:

Two words (name actually); Louie Varland.  How'd that work out  The definition of management is to put personnel into positions of the company where they can mutually benefit most.

I don’t agree with the Varland comparison but I do agree with the fact that the front office, management and THE PLAYER needs to do what’s optimal to make the best team on the field. If he wants to start and the management doesn’t agree then there’s 2 choices. Either the player changes his views or the FO trades him to someone who allows that if that’s what he really wants. The second option is extremely selfish and that’s not a guy any player or management wants on their team. 

Its an interesting topic but isnt it more important to win.  We have lots of SP arms developing and we also need a shut down bullpen. Jax could handle more innings in the pen and guys like Varland need to understand the importance of 80-100 elite innings in a season. Winners get paid. 

The only argument that works for making Jax a starter again is that over the last couple of years he's refined and improved his primary pitches (sweeper, 4-seamer, changeup, and sinker) enough that he's not the same pitcher he was as a starter. And it's true...but how much of his fastball improvement is based on his ability to throw it with max effort and never needing to pace himself any longer? The sweeper is unquestionably better, but can he throw it 40% of the time as a starter without making his elbow explode or making it so players can recognize it the 2nd-3rd time through? Is the changeup going to work when he has to throw to players who have seen it from the bench and at the plate in the same game? Is the sinker good enough to throw regularly throughout a game or is it effective only against 40-50% sweepers? Will he need to throw the curveball regularly and can he?

He's been healthy and reliable as a reliever, but can he do that as a starter? I don't doubt that he will work hard and prepare properly, but it's a lot more innings that he'll need to throw to be an effective starter. If they have to protect him as a "5 and Fly" guy (or worse) because he can't get deep into games...what else are you doing to your bullpen? Bad enough that you're taking your best reliever out of the back end and making the end of games less certain, but what if he can't throw effectively long enough that the Twins need even more relief innings? Some fans will complain about Baldelli's "quick hook", but you'll complain a lot more if Jax gets blown up in the 5th-6th inning on the regular.

There's very little track record to suggest that this will work. Sure, Johan Santana transitioned from the bullpen to a starter, but he was a) 25, and b) was still starting games for the Twins before he got a full-time spot in the rotation. Not a great comp. How did it work when the Twins moved Aguilera back to the rotation? (and Aguilera at least had some success as a starter in MLB) It's also important to remember that players are notoriously bad at being able to assess their own capacity and capability in this kind of way. They don't report minor injuries because they're convinced they'll be fine. How many pitchers per season ask to get pulled because they're gassed? (it's so rare that people write stories about it for days) Sometime players need to be protected from themselves.

There's a lot of risk to moving Jax into the rotation. Expecting him to succeed and be better than SWR (which should be the bar, and it's not really all that high) would honestly make him a unicorn in MLB. Is that a smart bet, or is this all just a way to get the front office and coaching staff fired? It also exposes the bullpen, which should be a strength with Duran, Jax, Sands, Alcala, Topa, Stewart, Tonkin, and Varland as options. But pulling out one of the absolute best and most reliable pieces makes it tougher.

Jax is also a military guy. The risk of him becoming discontented and a problem because the Twins decided not to make a move that is seriously risk-filled and probably detrimental to the team and possibly even the player is very low and is not even a marginally compelling argument.

40 minutes ago, mikelink45 said:

I don't want him to be a SP, but I also know a frustrated and pouting player is not good.  I would let him get some starts in ST and then put him in the BP with an understanding that he could get a spot start or two.  I know he gets good money - everyone in MLB does, but I also know he could get more as a SP.

I would take Varland out of the SP rotation too and put him in the BP.

 

It's interesting that people are worried about Jax being upset and "pouting" or something, and not about Varland. Sure, Varland was bad last season as a starter, but he had shown much more success at MLB as a starter than Jax ever did. Varland is almost certainly being moved to the bullpen after being passed by Festa and Matthews and with others on the way, and the response from most Twins fans has been "good, he might be able to help in the bullpen". I'm sure he'd still prefer to start and isn't ready to give up on that, but around here we see more comments about how the Twins should have done this sooner, and I can't recall one single person being concerned about whether Varland will be happy about this.

So, because the Twins moved Jax to the bullpen and he was great at it, we now should be deeply concerned about whether or not he'll be happy about staying there if he's interested in going back to something he had very poor success at?

I'm not saying the Twins should ignore Jax, tell him to shut up and throw, etc. (and they're not stupid, and they'll talk to him like a person) But he doesn't get to decide this.

21 hours ago, JD-TWINS said:

71 innings v. 171 innings …… the reliever v. starter expectations. His pitch effectiveness will diminish, fact that everyone would acknowledge, including Jax. His max level effort out of the Pen, to me, gives a false impression of what he could be as a starter. Now, some due to psychology, it’s a big deal for him to pitch more than one inning - or 25 pitches per outing.

He averages 2.82 innings over the 25 week season (71 innings) v. 6.78 innings as a starter over 25 week season (171 innings).

Starting is a different world, from the ability to be effective - to maintaining health - to reinventing what’s going on between your ears.

It was more of a rip on the manager than comparing stats. I should have been more clear. On a side note, what goes on between the ears doesn't matter with the guys in charge. Starters get yanked once they get to the third time through the lineup. Guys like Jack Morris and Jim Kaat would never complete a game regardless of how tenacious or intelligent they are.

On 11/30/2024 at 9:26 PM, DJL44 said:

Why do you think he can't be more than a back of the rotation starter? The whole idea of taking the risk is to get another top of the rotation arm like Lopez, Ober and Ryan. I agree, there isn't much to be gained if Jax is another Chris Paddack.

Being a starter is different pitching than a relief pitcher. He is not going to average 97 on his FB. There will be drops in velocity  on his other pitches as well. No one has mentioned an out pitch for him. 

Paddack has been injured. For some reason the FO thinks that oft injured pitchers can return to baseline quickly. If Paddack is healthy for a year it might look entirely different than last year. He was solid his first 2 years before the injury bug hit. Somebody said something about risk/reward