Royce Lewis Has Run Out of Gas

After missing the first two months with a quad injury suffered on Opening Day, Royce Lewis picked up where he left off in 2023: a relentless offensive force, hitting for average and power with a ferocious yet controlled approach. He homered in his first at-bat back on June 4th, and continued to deliver tape-measure blasts with amazing frequency over the several weeks that followed, up until suffering another injury in early July.

The groin strain knocked him out for three weeks, but Lewis came back and once again found his stride quickly, launching six more home runs with 16 RBIs in 16 games after being activated. The last of those homers came on August 12th, and that date is noteworthy because it marked the start of a prolonged slump from which Lewis has yet to emerge.

As of August 12th, nearly one month ago, Lewis had 15 home runs and a 1.021 OPS through 40 games this season. That's a near-impossible level of production to maintain, in fairness. But since then, he has experienced less a regression and more a ravine slide, slashing .198/.226/.261 in 24 games. 

During this span he has hit just one home run – and while it was a big one, giving the Twins a late lead in the series finale against Toronto, it barely left the yard, traveling at just 91 MPH. Not his best swing, by Lewis's own admission: “I hit it off the end of the bat. I’ve never seen it. … So I’ll take that all day. Our team, I think we’ll all take that. It was just good timing for it to go out like that.”

Aside from the wall-scraper, Lewis has produced just four doubles and 12 singles in 86 plate appearances over these past 22 games. The no-doubt bombs have gone completely amiss. Meanwhile he's struck out 25 times with just four walks, betraying the solid discipline we'd seen through his first 40 games (34 K, 18 BB in 160 PA).

Throughout the first 100 games of his MLB career, Lewis drove the ball with astonishing authority and consistency. A glance at his rolling xwOBA, via Statcast, illustrates the rapid deterioration in contact quality we've seen from the once-fearsome slugger, into below-average depths.

What we've witnessed in his past couple dozen games has been such a far cry that it's impossible not to be believe something is amiss. Lewis himself has not run away from this. As MLB.com beat writer Do-Hyoung Park recently shared on Twitter: "When I asked Royce Lewis about his production dip in August, he indicated it's been a physical grind in one of the longest stretches of his recent career playing every day. He's still trying to find that 'second wind' physically and a good routine to keep himself fresh, he said."

You might meet to this revelation with a bit of puzzlement; he hasn't even played half a season's worth of games. But Park adds important context in a follow-up tweet, noting that Lewis has "pretty much never had an uninterrupted stretch more than, say, a month and a half of playing close to every day since 2019 due to the pandemic and all the injuries." 

In a story for The Athletic over the weekend, Dan Hayes observed that, "Recently, the grind of a long, exhausting season seemingly caught up to Lewis. Whether discussing his disdain for playing second base or how tired he’s felt in his longest season since 2019, Lewis twice in the past month demonstrated something less than the plucky attitude he’s always featured."

The change in Lewis's upbeat demeanor speaks volumes about what he's going through, much like last week's outbursts of frustration from Louie Varland and Byron Buxton conveyed the same. And while Lewis did express optimism in Hayes's article about being able to fight through this and find that "second wind," the reality is that his performance is only steepening in its descent. He looked as bad as we've seen him all year in Kansas City over the weekend, flailing away hopelessly en route to an 0-for-11 output with five strikeouts.

The Twins have had so much go against him in this second half, but the one biggest source of hope has been the prospect of Lewis getting hot and carrying the team as we've seen before, including last year's playoffs. Right now that doesn't even feel like a vague possibility. 

Is there any action the Twins can take to change that outlook? Giving Lewis a couple weeks off to rest up seems like the only tangible course of action. It would mean sacrificing one of their best remaining players during a stretch they need to win games and hold onto their playoff position, but right now Lewis isn't helping them in the least.

What would you do, if anything? Take action in some way to straighten out Lewis and his physical state ahead of the playoffs, or let it ride and hope he can recapture a spark before it's too late?