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    Royce Lewis Is Heating Up at the Perfect Time for the Twins

    Royce Lewis endured another frustrating first half, even spending time in Triple-A. But since the All-Star break, he has looked like a completely different player, and the timing couldn’t be better for the Twins.

    Sam Caulder
    Image courtesy of Jeff Hanisch-Imagn Images

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    Royce Lewis has long been one of the more fascinating (and frustrating) players not just on the Twins’ roster, but in all of Major League Baseball. When he’s right, Lewis looks like an All-Star-caliber player. The power is obvious, the athleticism is obvious, and there are stretches where he looks capable of taking over games in a way very few players across the entire league can. The problem has been finding that version of Lewis consistently enough. 

    That inconsistency has been on full display again this season, but perhaps the most encouraging development for the Twins is that Lewis appears to be trending in the right direction at exactly the right time. On the season as a whole, Lewis is hitting .239 with a .313 on-base percentage and a .739 OPS. Those are fine numbers on their own, but they don’t exactly jump off the page. More importantly, they fail to capture just how dramatically his season has changed over the past few weeks.

    For much of the first half, Lewis was struggling. Prior to the All-Star break, he hit just .219 with an on-base percentage below .300 and an OPS below .700. His 94 wRC+ further underscored those struggles, putting him below league average offensively. Eventually, things deteriorated to the point where the Twins optioned Lewis to Triple-A. That obviously wasn’t what the team had hoped to see, but the demotion may have ultimately served as something of a reset. And since the All-Star break in particular, the difference has been striking.

    Across 22 games, Lewis is hitting .293 with a .359 on-base percentage and an .859 OPS. He has recorded 10 extra-base hits and five stolen bases during that span, showcasing the well-rounded skill set that has always made him such an intriguing player. His 136 wRC+ since the All-Star break may be the most telling number of all. Lewis hasn’t simply been hitting for a decent average during this stretch. He has been well above league average offensively, and he’s been impacting the game in multiple ways.

    That matters because the version of Lewis the Twins need down the stretch isn’t necessarily the player who hits 30-plus home runs or produces at an MVP level for an extended period. They simply need the player who can consistently put pressure on opposing teams. When Lewis is seeing the ball well, his power changes the way pitchers have to attack him, and his speed gives him another way to create offense once he reaches base. That combination is what gives him such a high ceiling. It’s also why his recent surge is particularly meaningful for a Twins team that remains firmly within striking distance of the postseason.

    Despite coming off of a disappointing series in Milwaukee, Minnesota came into the week just four games back in the American League Central and 1.5 games behind the final American League Wild Card spot. There’s obviously plenty of work left to do, and the Twins have little margin for error. But they’re close enough that a strong final month-and-a-half could completely change the outlook of their season. And if that happens, Lewis is going to have to be part of it.

    The Twins’ offense, especially without Byron Buxton, has been needing some players to step up. Lewis provides a different dimension when he’s playing at his best. There is a ceiling to this lineup that simply isn’t there when he is struggling to make consistent contact or get on base. That’s what makes his current stretch so encouraging.

    It would be misguided to assume that Lewis is suddenly going to maintain an .850 OPS for the remainder of the season. His track record suggests there will be some ups and downs along the way, and another cold stretch would hardly be surprising. The goal should be consistency, not perfection. If Lewis can settle somewhere around a high-.700s to low-.800s OPS over the remainder of the regular season, that would be a meaningful contribution to a Twins lineup trying to fight its way into October. And if he can do more than that, Minnesota could have something even more valuable.

    His streakiness can be a gift and a curse. Right now, though, it's working in the Twins’ favor. Lewis is playing his best baseball of the season while Minnesota is trying to make up ground in a crowded American League playoff race. That doesn’t guarantee anything, but it gives the Twins something they desperately need: another potentially dynamic bat playing at a high level.

    There is still a long way to go. The Twins will need better pitching, more consistent production throughout the lineup, a healthier roster, and plenty of other things to break their way if they are going to make a legitimate push for October. But Lewis doesn’t need to carry the entire team; he needs to continue being the player he has been over these last few weeks.

    If he can do that, the Twins suddenly have a much more dangerous lineup than they did earlier in the season, especially if Buxton returns in the coming days. And perhaps most importantly, they have a player who is starting to look like the version of Royce Lewis everyone knew was still somewhere in there. For a Twins team still fighting for its season, the timing couldn’t be much better.

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    It's not part of the OP, but since it was brought up in the comments, I do think there is a portion of fans that do ride certain players very hard. When HOPE of GREATNESS doesn't transform in to such, for whatever reasons, that projected HOPE turns to disappointment, and then disappointment turns to a frustrated anger. Think Gibson, Sano, Buxton, and Lewis. Is that fair? I think not. But I can understand it, even if I think it's misguided.

    I would refer back to @bean5302 post earlier where Lewis has clearly been a different hitter since he came back up. 

    NOT to be condescending, but Lewis had been on a low road for about a year and a half before his demotion. Did that provide a new perspective and maturity as a person, or player, or both? Did he have fun with St Paul and remember that he actually loves the game? So mentally AND emotionally, did that reset give him a new approach and bring back his confidence? Is it a combination of all of those things?

    One thing Lewis has never been lacking is work ethic and confidence. But when you have to work SO HARD due to injuries, and your game doesn't come so easily any longer, and your confidence wavers, you end up with the Lewis for about a year and a half.

    Regardless of exactly WHAT transpired in his head and heart during his demotion, he's been a solid, competent hitter since he came back. And he seems to have a "determined" attitude to be the best 1B he can be...which I think he can be excellent with time and repetition...as well as being an occasional 2B, which is OK usage IMO for now at least. 

    Almost ALL players go through hot streaks. They also go through cold streaks as well. It's part of a 6 month plus season. And it's awesome that Lewis is hot right now, especially with Buxton out and a couple other players struggling a bit.

    But Lewis absolutely WILL NOT carry the team. That's just a falacy or fantasy that ONE GUY can carry a team. What the Twins need from Lewis is CONSISTENCY for the rest of 2026 and the future. It's ENTIRETY possible that Lewis, at 27yo has FINALLY "figured it out" as a hitter. Maybe he's even recognized that he doesn't HAVE to be Superman! To say a player has finally matured isn't an insult. It's acceptance of ability, but recognition that not only he doesn't have to be perfect, but just recognizing he can still be good, or great, without having a greatness burden.

    I'd like to think Lewis has FINALLY figured that out. I'd also like to believe that he's matured enough to realize a couple bad days also don't define him.

    I love Lewis at 1B and think he can be outstanding there with a little more time. But he's more than athletic enough to play a little 2B here and there until the INF really settles down in 2027. 

    Look again at his numbers since he came back from his demotion. He's a legitimate 20 plus HR bat with good DBLS and a few SB. He's on an upturn currently.  But if he SETTLES as a .270 AVG hitter with a .325 OBP and 25 HR and 30plus  DBLS, would you be disappointed?

    A hot streak is awesome. But I want a CONSISTENT Lewis, even if his numbers are only borderline All Star. 

     

    7 hours ago, Nick Nelson said:

    What I struggle with is many of his plate appearances continuing to be so egregiously bad. Still seems like a lot of guesswork up there even when he's swinging well. Lewis has a 1.025 OPS in his last 12 games but a 15-to-1 K/BB ratio.

    As Sam notes in the article, the Twins don't need Lewis to necessarily keep up at this rate, but they can't have him go back in the tank. That kind of plate discipline lends itself to extended slumps.

    Choose the scope you want I guess. I'll choose the scope since he was called up after his reset in St Paul which is .280 BA with a near .850 OPS. 

    8 hours ago, Nick Nelson said:

    Still seems like a lot of guesswork up there even when he's swinging well. Lewis has a 1.025 OPS in his last 12 games but a 15-to-1 K/BB ratio.

    aynhdb.jpg

    Those 12 games comprised 51 plate appearances.  15 strikeouts is 29% which is pretty bad but one can hope he comes back down to his career norms more like 22%.  1 BB is a crazy low 2% and he's usually more like 8%.  Three homers in that span is like 6% which is a little above his usual 4%.

    So then why is his OPS so high, in the face of a couple of headwinds (high SO, low BB)?  On balls hit in play, he's batting .484.

    If he's engaging in guesswork and the ball evades fielders' gloves when he sticks the bat out there, that kind of result is extremely unlikely to continue at this .484 success rate.  Nobody sustains a rate even .100 below that.

    Concepts like "heating up at the right time" are almost bound to disappoint fans.  Fluctuations in BABIP don't explain anything about the batter per se, but it can take some of the mystery out of hot and cold periods, and encourage us to say "this too shall pass."

    48 minutes ago, soyouresayingtheresachance said:

    I was hoping he'd be traded at the deadline. https://3dtrcek.com/hu/3d-filamentek He is such a streaky player. 

    Can he maintain this production? Can he hit enough to play 1B?  https://b2b.pharma-hemp.com/contract-manufacturing/

    I have my doubts. But I hope he proves me wrong. 

    Moving him at the deadline would have been selling low. Settling into a permanent 1B role reduces his injury risk and lets his bat stay in the lineup.

    7 hours ago, MarkoFlow said:

    Moving him at the deadline would have been selling low. Settling into a permanent 1B role reduces his injury risk and lets his bat stay in the lineup.

    It would've been selling low, absolutely. Hes had 3 pretty terrible years since hes done anything. Playing 1B generally comes with a pretty big bat. Im just not sure he can consistently provide that.

    I feel like people are confusing playing poorly while hurt with streaky. If Royce Lewis' name was Alex Kirilloff, 90% of this site would be proclaiming him the de-facto MVP for the next 12 years straight already.

    The last 12 games would be the baseline for Lewis' performance, and any time Lewis didn't have a game with an OPS of at least 1.000 it's because he was hurt that day.

    12 hours ago, USAFChief said:

    One thing...I wish they'd just park him at 1B and leave him.

    They have at least one better option at 2B (Klemens) so I wonder if Lewis' appearances there have more to do with managing the clubhouse than 100% baseball reasons. If Klemons is hurting, if Royce wants to pretend he can still play middle infield, if Jackson needs to start against a specific pitcher, whatever,  then throwing a couple Lewis at 2B makes a bunch of other things fit. It's a long season and Shelton has way more to worry about than setting a lineup and sitting back. 

    13 hours ago, ashbury said:

    aynhdb.jpg

    Those 12 games comprised 51 plate appearances.  15 strikeouts is 29% which is pretty bad but one can hope he comes back down to his career norms more like 22%.  1 BB is a crazy low 2% and he's usually more like 8%.  Three homers in that span is like 6% which is a little above his usual 4%.

    So then why is his OPS so high, in the face of a couple of headwinds (high SO, low BB)?  On balls hit in play, he's batting .484.

    If he's engaging in guesswork and the ball evades fielders' gloves when he sticks the bat out there, that kind of result is extremely unlikely to continue at this .484 success rate.  Nobody sustains a rate even .100 below that.

    Concepts like "heating up at the right time" are almost bound to disappoint fans.  Fluctuations in BABIP don't explain anything about the batter per se, but it can take some of the mystery out of hot and cold periods, and encourage us to say "this too shall pass."

    Is it luck,  or a combination of something else?  

    What has changed - his bat velocity has increased 3% since the beginning of the season.  Is he healthier, more confident, swinging harder, the change in the high leg kick creating more momentum or a combination.  In either case he is swinging harder which is increasing exit velocity which does help explain a higher babip but even still there is likely some luck involved here.  The last 2 weeks he is seeing the ball extremely well.  Now I can recall 1 or 2 cheap hits but the majority are hard hit balls that are earned hits in my opinion.  He looks like a confident player putting the ball in play.   

    29 minutes ago, Hawkeye Bean Counter said:

    Is it luck,  or a combination of something else?  

    What has changed - his bat velocity has increased 3% since the beginning of the season.  Is he healthier, more confident, swinging harder, the change in the high leg kick creating more momentum or a combination.  In either case he is swinging harder which is increasing exit velocity which does help explain a higher babip but even still there is likely some luck involved here.  The last 2 weeks he is seeing the ball extremely well.  Now I can recall 1 or 2 cheap hits but the majority are hard hit balls that are earned hits in my opinion.  He looks like a confident player putting the ball in play.   

    BABIP reflects a certain combination of batting skills.  Some players maintain a high one (Joe Mauer), some maintain a low one (Max Kepler) - just as some players hit homers and others don't.

    Coming into this season, among players with at least 2000 PA (to try to rule out small samples, which obviously biases toward good players) across the past ten seasons, Brandon Marsh maintained a .371 BABIP. (He's "down" to .339 this season.)  Austin Hedges, in case anyone's curious, is low man among these 296 players, with .238.

    When someone's on a hot streak, almost certainly some components of his game will be outside his usual norms.  If for instance the strikeouts are suddenly low, you could expect regression to his prior mean - but there do exist players who don't strike out very much, and fans of the player could hope that he's found some new tactic that cuts down the Ks permanently.  Similarly if the HRs are suddenly up at some kind of Kyle Schwarber rate, probably it's just a fluke, but maybe our hero has unlocked something that will continue, because there do exist players who have that kind of production.  Walks, ditto - batters with great eyes exist, and maybe the guy on a good run has joined their ranks.

    So, my point really is just that the tear Lewis has been on is supported by something, a .484 BABIP, that is literally .100 higher than any major leaguer has been able to maintain on a long term basis the past ten years. It would be one thing if we thought Lewis had suddenly become Brandon Marsh.  It's another, if we thought he became Kal-El of Krypton come to Earth

    Players tinker with their plate approach all the time. They're trying to get better, they're trying to confound the "book" that opposing teams have on him.  The opposing teams tinker with the "book" on him, in response. Health and any number of factors play in as well.

    Thus I don't call it luck.  Lewis is trying his best on every at bat, and the opposing pitcher is trying his best on every throw he makes.  Let the best man win. 

    But the rate of success Lewis is enjoying isn't based on the kind of thing that continues indefinitely.

    1 hour ago, Cris E said:

    They have at least one better option at 2B (Klemens) so I wonder if Lewis' appearances there have more to do with managing the clubhouse than 100% baseball reasons. If Klemons is hurting, if Royce wants to pretend he can still play middle infield, if Jackson needs to start against a specific pitcher, whatever,  then throwing a couple Lewis at 2B makes a bunch of other things fit. It's a long season and Shelton has way more to worry about than setting a lineup and sitting back. 

    Notice the pattern when he plays at 2B, it's pretty obvious, they have determined that Caratini is the first baseman against LH pitching so Lewis moves to second.  This is for unknown reasons that they want Caratini in there.

    2 minutes ago, HarmonK03 said:

    Notice the pattern when he plays at 2B, it's pretty obvious, they have determined that Caratini is the first baseman against LH pitching so Lewis moves to second.  This is for unknown reasons that they want Caratini in there.

    Correct and it drives me crazy. 

    On good authority-  remember before Royce got sent down all the negative comments i do and was part of it -we only wanted the young man to succeed without the world making excuses  some valid -most not, Then he waited 3 days to report which was his right but when he did instead of getting patted on the fanny and told how great he was gonna be - i give his agency a lot of credit for being honest and telling him the truth that his then big mouth is what gets him in trouble , he never heard things like that before and he better do what 99% of players do and use the talking points to keep fans happy , and that seems to have helped him ever since ,   we all want Royce to be the man now that he is acting like one we are seeing ,   

    10 hours ago, HarmonK03 said:

    Notice the pattern when he plays at 2B, it's pretty obvious, they have determined that Caratini is the first baseman against LH pitching so Lewis moves to second.  This is for unknown reasons that they want Caratini in there.

    for the twins future thats why i wished Jeffers got traded- no more Victor then at 1b  Larnach also   to get Walter and Emmy here




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