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    Royals 3, Twins 2: Duran Command Derails Twins in 9th


    Hans Birkeland

    A rare bout of wildness from Jhoan Duran costs the Twins a game they led in the eighth as Royals steal game three from the Twins, ending their nine game losing streak at Target Field.

    Image courtesy of Jeffrey Becker-USA TODAY Sports

    Twins Video

    Box Score
    SP: Bailey Ober 5.2 IP 4 H 1 ER 2 BB 6 SO (88 pitches, 55 strikes 62.5%)
    Home Runs: Buxton (6)
    Bottom 3 WPA: Jhoan Duran (-0.311), Trevor Larnach (-.230), Joey Gallo and Jorge López (-0.180)

    Win Probability Chart (Via Fangraphs):

    image.png

    Bailey Ober makes another solid cold weather start
    Called up to replace the injured Kenta Maeda, Ober started off the game by tying Bobby Witt Jr. up with a high-and-tight fastball, striking out in comical fashion. Not to be outdone, Sal Perez went down swinging on a slider two feet outside to finish the inning. Throughout the outing, his changeup was floating outside of the zone, or hanging in the top portion of the strike zone, leading to some hard contact from left handed batters. That eventually hurt him in the fifth when he gave up a hard single to Nicky Lopez for the Royal’s first run. He was lifted after a two-out single to another lefty, Nick Pratto in the fifth. The Royals are the worst offense in the league by runs scored, so it will be telling to see how Ober fares against a collection of better lefties. 

    Max Kepler continues to show why he should be a part of the team’s plans
    Ignoring the pleas of one Aaron Gleeman, the Twins have held on to Max Kepler despite their plethora of promising left-handed corner bats. Kepler’s OPS is now solidly over .800 after adding two hits, a hit-by-pitch and a walk today, while continuing to play excellent defense in right field. If he remains healthy, a three WAR season seems quite attainable which suddenly makes his 8.5M salary look positively valuable. Let us not forget Kepler was a league average hitter in 2022 before attempting to play through a broken toe that tanked his season numbers, a fact conveniently forgotten by.. everyone?

    Royals’ starter Brad Keller faces his control demons, sort of wins
    Coming into play with a solid-looking 3.96 ERA, Keller quickly showed why his walk rate is over seventeen percent, walking Max Kepler to lead off the game. Kepler was erased on a Carlos Correa double play, though, and Keller began his hi-wire act from there, stranding runners in scoring position in the second and third before starting to unravel in the fourth when he walked two and unleashed a wild pitch that allowed Buxton to score the game’s first run. He ended up walking five on the night in addition to five hits and the aforementioned wild pitch, channeling a little Sam Deduno magic to avoid giving up any significant damage.

    Jorge Polanco stays hot but confusion leads to baserunning blunder
    Ahead in the count to the wild Keller, Polanco ripped a 3-1 fastball deep to the right field corner, where the ball landed on top of the wall’s edge, inconceivably bouncing back into play where a trotting Polanco was tagged out at second base. He then ripped a line drive (106.6 MPH) to right field with men on in the fifth, only for the suddenly ascendant Nick Pratto to make a great diving catch. 

    Decision to have Jorge López face Salvador Perez in the eighth backfires
    Griffin Jax had thrown 15 pitches in the eighth inning, giving up just a walk to Bobby Witt Jr. Rocco Baldelli came and got him anyway, bringing in Jorge López to face noted Twin-killer Salvador Perez. After getting ahead 0-2 with high fastballs, López threw another high fastball that Perez got on top of, lining a single to center to tie the game. It is fair to question whether Jax may have been a better matchup given his elite slider paired with the fact that Perez got a hit off of López the night before.

    Buxton draws another walk, remains above league-average in walk rate
    Drawing his tenth walk in his 25th game would have been a preposterous stat for Buxton just a few years ago. Although he was known to have good strike zone control as a prospect, his actual walk rates were abysmal the first few years of his career, and plummeted to 1.5% during the 2020 season that also represented his power breakout. He is now over nine percent after walking 8.9% of the time last year (league average is 8.8%). Buxton’s timing still seems a little off this year despite his big home run in today’s game, but if he has added a modicum of selectivity to his game that should put the league on notice.

    What’s Next
    MLB ERA leader Sonny Gray (3-0, 0.62 ERA) wraps up the series facing Royals “ace” Brady Singer (2-2, 6.67 ERA) with the Twins hoping to avoid what would be a disappointing split with the bottom-feeding Royals.

     

    Postgame Interviews

     

    Bullpen Usage Chart

      TUE WED THU FRI SAT TOT
    Durán 15 0 15 0 25 55
    Thielbar 0 0 0 25 22 47
    J López 10 0 0 20 16 46
    Jax 0 0 0 16 15 31
    Morán 0 0 29 0 0 29
    Stewart 0 0 28 0 0 28
    Pagán 0 10 0 0 0 10
    Winder 0 0 0 0 0 0
     

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    Marek Houston

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    The 22-year-old went 2-for-5 on Friday night, his fourth straight multi-hit game. Heading into the week, he was hitting .246/.328/.404 (.732). Four games later, he is hitting .303/.361/.447 (.808).

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    I don't get all the fuss about Polanco not running out of the box, this looks like textbook hindsight bias to me. When he hit the ball it was barreled at 108 mph with a 23 degree launch angle off the bat. That is a home run almost all the time, so obviously guys aren't gonna be sprinting out of the box as hard as they can. This idea that you should be running hard on every batted ball until you know it's out/homer/safe is just pure fantasy, nobody is gonna accept that kind of injury risk. That the ball happened to be just 10cm too close to the field and stayed in play is just bad luck, nothing you can do about that.
    I don't know if its fair to blame Polanco for not being aware that the ball didn't go out, but seems more reasonable than him not sprinting out of the box. Even if he was paying attention (which I don't think he was) how the would you tell that it stayed fair, and didn't go out but bounce back into the field of play, from the base pathes? To me it just seems like extreme bad luck that the ball wasn't a homer. Also for those calling for Rocco to publicly call out Polanco, I'd suggest you read up on the tyler o'niel situation in St Louis and see if that's the kind of culture you want to be created by the twins.
    Though I can't say I'm surprised the twins lost this game given how god awful the bullpen was in the previous game. If they didn't have the umpire as their 10th player they probably would have lost that too, or at least taken it into extras. Big differences was the 8 runs scored vs the 0-11 with risp, but I would consider that pair of performances standard procedure from this line up.
    But look on the bright side folks, at least we ain't white sox or athletics fans.

    3 hours ago, Blyleven2011 said:

    Plus the players took the field but did not bring the killer instinct to play and put the royals away  , lots of opportunities for the  taking   , the twins have only won 2 games scoring 4 runs or less ...

     

    Twins have two wins with score of 3-1 & two other wins 2-0. That’s 25% of our current wins. One day all fans are down on offense and then the criticism, as it should be, is on the Pen for lack of focus and difficulty throwing strikes.

    No perfect clubs out there!! If it’s not pitching/it’s lack of timely offense. Gotta roll forward in a 162 game season and hope things balance out & you’re good enough.

    7 hours ago, Shobae said:

    I don't get all the fuss about Polanco not running out of the box, this looks like textbook hindsight bias to me. When he hit the ball it was barreled at 108 mph with a 23 degree launch angle off the bat. That is a home run almost all the time, so obviously guys aren't gonna be sprinting out of the box as hard as they can. This idea that you should be running hard on every batted ball until you know it's out/homer/safe is just pure fantasy, nobody is gonna accept that kind of injury risk. That the ball happened to be just 10cm too close to the field and stayed in play is just bad luck, nothing you can do about that.
    I don't know if its fair to blame Polanco for not being aware that the ball didn't go out, but seems more reasonable than him not sprinting out of the box. Even if he was paying attention (which I don't think he was) how the would you tell that it stayed fair, and didn't go out but bounce back into the field of play, from the base pathes? To me it just seems like extreme bad luck that the ball wasn't a homer. Also for those calling for Rocco to publicly call out Polanco, I'd suggest you read up on the tyler o'niel situation in St Louis and see if that's the kind of culture you want to be created by the twins.
    Though I can't say I'm surprised the twins lost this game given how god awful the bullpen was in the previous game. If they didn't have the umpire as their 10th player they probably would have lost that too, or at least taken it into extras. Big differences was the 8 runs scored vs the 0-11 with risp, but I would consider that pair of performances standard procedure from this line up.
    But look on the bright side folks, at least we ain't white sox or athletics fans.

    I noticed Polanco calculating the speed and degree as he loped, Very talented. He can do it in his head. Seemed to affect his running speed, though.

    2 hours ago, JD-TWINS said:

    Twins have two wins with score of 3-1 & two other wins 2-0. That’s 25% of our current wins. One day all fans are down on offense and then the criticism, as it should be, is on the Pen for lack of focus and difficulty throwing strikes.

    No perfect clubs out there!! If it’s not pitching/it’s lack of timely offense. Gotta roll forward in a 162 game season and hope things balance out & you’re good enough.

    Beat the White Sox & the Yankees 4-3 each - so, we really have 6 wins with 4 runs or less.

    Putting on a hitting clinic on Sunday……8 runs and still at bat in the 3rd. Kepler - Gordon - Castro - Vasquez all contributing. Kepler just struck out and got to 1st on pitch that went to backstop.

    2 hours ago, Shobae said:

    I don't get all the fuss about Polanco not running out of the box, this looks like textbook hindsight bias to me. When he hit the ball it was barreled at 108 mph with a 23 degree launch angle off the bat. That is a home run almost all the time, so obviously guys aren't gonna be sprinting out of the box as hard as they can. This idea that you should be running hard on every batted ball until you know it's out/homer/safe is just pure fantasy, nobody is gonna accept that kind of injury risk. That the ball happened to be just 10cm too close to the field and stayed in play is just bad luck, nothing you can do about that.
    I don't know if its fair to blame Polanco for not being aware that the ball didn't go out, but seems more reasonable than him not sprinting out of the box. Even if he was paying attention (which I don't think he was) how the would you tell that it stayed fair, and didn't go out but bounce back into the field of play, from the base pathes? To me it just seems like extreme bad luck that the ball wasn't a homer. Also for those calling for Rocco to publicly call out Polanco, I'd suggest you read up on the tyler o'niel situation in St Louis and see if that's the kind of culture you want to be created by the twins.
    Though I can't say I'm surprised the twins lost this game given how god awful the bullpen was in the previous game. If they didn't have the umpire as their 10th player they probably would have lost that too, or at least taken it into extras. Big differences was the 8 runs scored vs the 0-11 with risp, but I would consider that pair of performances standard procedure from this line up.
    But look on the bright side folks, at least we ain't white sox or athletics fans.

    Buxton hit a middle-middle fastball into the upper deck in left field.

    Pagan may get to pitch later today, Oh boy!

    I just heard on the Broadcast that Joe Ryan has as many wins as A’s at this point.

     

    A thought - hope maybe for May:

    Stewart - Headrick - Winder - Maeda - Duran - Jax - López - Thielbar……….nobody in that mix that makes you ill - right?!!

    5 hours ago, Shobae said:

    I don't get all the fuss about Polanco not running out of the box, this looks like textbook hindsight bias to me. When he hit the ball it was barreled at 108 mph with a 23 degree launch angle off the bat. That is a home run almost all the time, so obviously guys aren't gonna be sprinting out of the box as hard as they can. This idea that you should be running hard on every batted ball until you know it's out/homer/safe is just pure fantasy,

    Holy cow. 

    Pretty bad take. 

    Pretty, pretty, pretty bad take.

    On 4/30/2023 at 7:10 PM, h2oface said:

    I noticed Polanco calculating the speed and degree as he loped, Very talented. He can do it in his head. Seemed to affect his running speed, though.

    To my knowledge Polanco still has nerves in his hands so he can feel how he hit the ball, which I think he's done a few times before, so I'd wager he has a pretty good feeling for whether or not he made ideal contact with it. He again to my knowledge, feel free to correct me, has eyes and 20/20 vision so he can see in what general angel the ball is traveling. Based on these two pieces of information he can make a pretty solid judgement on what kind of batted ball he has hit. But I'm sure all the armchair major leaguers here would be able to give him a few useful tips on how to play his game.

    On 4/30/2023 at 10:40 PM, USAFChief said:

    Holy cow. 

    Pretty bad take. 

    Pretty, pretty, pretty bad take.

    No arguments 🤷‍♀️

    4 hours ago, Shobae said:

    To my knowledge Polanco still has nerves in his hands so he can feel how he hit the ball, which I think he's done a few times before, so I'd wager he has a pretty good feeling for whether or not he made ideal contact with it. He again to my knowledge, feel free to correct me, has eyes and 20/20 vision so he can see in what general angel the ball is traveling. Based on these two pieces of information he can make a pretty solid judgement on what kind of batted ball he has hit. But I'm sure all the armchair major leaguers here would be able to give him a few useful tips on how to play his game.

    I don't know that an angel was involved 😇 . However obdurate the take, I am not interested in disputatious dialogue here. Many on the site will engage you. In the end, whether he was calulating or going on feelings, he was wrong, and embarrassingly out at second, and from the look on his face, personally embarrassed as well. I bet he even apologized to his teammates, and will be changing his behavior in upcoming games. I will never be advocating a player should just hustle selectively. Too much unexpected can happen on each and every ball in play, as we saw on this one.

    On 5/4/2023 at 6:52 PM, h2oface said:

    I don't know that an angel was involved 😇 . However obdurate the take, I am not interested in disputatious dialogue here. Many on the site will engage you. In the end, whether he was calulating or going on feelings, he was wrong, and embarrassingly out at second, and from the look on his face, personally embarrassed as well. I bet he even apologized to his teammates, and will be changing his behavior in upcoming games. I will never be advocating a player should just hustle selectively. Too much unexpected can happen on each and every ball in play, as we saw on this one.

    Well I'm glad we've got the armchair coach and psychologist on the scene. As I explained in my previous post, which part was curiously ignored, guys aren't going to hustle on each batted ball event principally because of the injury risk, I would guess. Would have to see what the literature looks like, but if you increase the amount of 0 to 100 sprints you make it stands to reason that it increases the probability of injury. Since most major leaguers can reliably discern when to sprint and when to jog out of the box there is little reward for the risk.
    But I'm sure even if I did consult the medical literature on injuries caused by burst activity in sports, there is nothing that would convince you otherwise. I am arguing against dogma here, an exercise in futility.     

    53 minutes ago, Shobae said:

    Well I'm glad we've got the armchair coach and psychologist on the scene. As I explained in my previous post, which part was curiously ignored, guys aren't going to hustle on each batted ball event principally because of the injury risk, I would guess. Would have to see what the literature looks like, but if you increase the amount of 0 to 100 sprints you make it stands to reason that it increases the probability of injury. Since most major leaguers can reliably discern when to sprint and when to jog out of the box there is little reward for the risk.
    But I'm sure even if I did consult the medical literature on injuries caused by burst activity in sports, there is nothing that would convince you otherwise. I am arguing against dogma here, an exercise in futility.     

    You're arguing baseball players shouldn't hustle out every batted ball.

    That's not something most people would agree with. 

    In fact, it defies belief.

    16 hours ago, USAFChief said:

    You're arguing baseball players shouldn't hustle out every batted ball.

    That's not something most people would agree with. 

    In fact, it defies belief.

    Concur. You run as though it matters until the umpire tells you it doesn't.




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