Purchasing A Rotation, And What It Means

As for regression, they offense was pretty bad overall in the beginning of the year, yet they still finished where they did.  The second half of last season, they were the best offense overall.  That was with Suzuki regressing as it was. 

Regression:

Suzuki, Santana, and Vargas

Improvements

Mauer, Plouffe, Dozier (I think the power numbers drop a bit, but the average goes way up), Hunter (improvement over what we had in LF), Arcia (I think he takes a huge step forward this year).

Push

Escobar.  Hopefully the CF they can sign will play to the average of Santana and Hicks with better defense.

I do think Santana will see a big drop, and personally, I'd slate him for work in Rochester on his defense anyways.  That said, it wasn't like he was getting seeing eye singles.  Everything he hit was on a rope, so perhaps there's some talent that could allow him to be one of those guys who carries a higher BABIP... Who knows.

Could this team contend?  If things break right, yes.  I think the most realistic view of 2015 is that they are pretenders.  They should give us a good season and keep the fans interested in baseball well into September, but ultimately fall short because they are flawed.  What should be exciting is that there's a good chance we see Buxton, Rosario, Meyer, and Sano at some point this season. 

Given that they have 1 guy they drafted in the rotation, and really 1 guy last year, and no good guys the 2 years before that (I think I have Baker's departure time correct)......relying on prospects might not be the best plan......sometimes you have to go buy players.

I see the last two offseasons as acknowledgements (finally) of just how bad they have been at developing SP. I just wish they had signed Santana last year, to make the bridge start earlier. 

Except there isn't just one spot they are waiting for like the backup QB. There are FIVE.

 

Not making the rotation out of ST is hardly a big deal. I'm willing to make a significant wager that the Twins don't use just 5 SPs this coming year.

Are there really five spots or are four already sewn up short of injury?  There is one spot.  

And again, this isn't about needing depth or injuries coming up or anything like that.  It's the belief that these guys will truly be on the team when they are most deserving.  I am hopeful that the team is willing to make that bold stride but too often under Ryan it is not the most talented players, but the veterans or those with the most invested in them financially.

The notion that Alex Meyer or Trevor May have one of five spots open to them is just ridiculous.  They have one spot open to them and they are competing with each other, Tommy Milone, and Mike Pelfrey at the very least.  

I think the argument is to bring them up when they are ready.  Most will struggle at some point, unless by chance they are named Mike Trout.  But the reality is that you don't want to be wasting too much of their service time having them figure out things that they should be learning in the minors.  The best case in that scenario is that they still manage to stay on the same timeline had they not been rushed.  The worst case is that it takes much much longer (Gomez)... or never happens.

I'm ok with that, you won't hear me calling for anyone's head based on prospect timelines.  I might grumble about wanting to see one guy over another (see: Gibson vs. PJ freaking Walters) but I understand how readiness involves a lot of factors beyond us as fans.  I also put a lot of value on guys getting exposure to the next level and tempering expectations about that.  

All that said, this team is very willing to clear out the roster (to a fault) for Aaron Hicks but Alex Meyer and Trevor May have spin straw into gold before they get shots at a rotation spot?  I'm more baffled by the approach than anything.  That's why I use the QB "battle" as an example.  Everyone knows the backup could go 28-30 with 4 TDs and he's still riding the pine and I get that feeling a lot with young Twins' starters.

Hicks didn't get the nod in CF because position players are held to a different standard, he got it because they traded away all their better options and didn't leave themselves much choice. They want to be in a position to pick the kid when he's ready, not out of necessity. Mays and Meyer should earn a job just as Hicks would have if Revere were still around.

I would suggest they cleared the path intentionally for Hicks.  They did the same for Mauer, Morneau, and many others going quite a ways back.

The Twins' methods with hitting prospects vs. pitching prospects is almost Dr. Jekyl/Mr. Hyde.  It's clearly some kind of organizational philosophy, but what it is and why they do it I'm not sure.

I don't like Hicks being the poster child for giving positions to young prospects.   It was extremely reasonable that he be given the spot at the time.   Strong AA season with a fantastic Spring Training.  The fact that he didn't thrive (yet) was on him, not the Twins for going that way.   Hicks not performing should not be a reason to be tentative with other prospects.  Look at Danny Santana as proof that prospects can succeed rather than going the pessimistic route.   Heck, did we have a backup plan for Puckett, Hunter, Gomez, Span, Revere?    Even as bad as he was hitting Hicks still got on base more than Revere.    If they earn it in the minors then promote them.  Depth is always nice but having strong major league ready or proven  candidates as a backup for every position just isn't that realistic.    Think I am wrong?  Butera and Punto have both been backups for WS contenders.  

You are making our point.....they seem aggressive with hitters, and slow with pitchers. 

Hicks got the nod the last two years because he actually performed during spring training, especially 2013 when his spring OPS was 1.051.  He didn't do quite as well last year but still hit .330 in the spring.  What he's failed to do was hold the job once he'd won it.  Gibson also WON the job last year.  I have no problem with the young kids having to win jobs and hope they do. 

not sure someone should win a job in spring training.....the issue with Hicks, for me, is they had no contingency plan in place at all.

I'm not seeing what's wrong with that. Are you saying they should both be guaranteed a spot in the rotation out of spring training no matter what?

I'd like to feel that they actually have an equal shot as Milone, Pelfrey, and maybe even Nolasco.  Do you honestly feel like they will?

If they earn it in the minors then promote them.  Depth is always nice but having strong major league ready or proven  candidates as a backup for every position just isn't that realistic.    Think I am wrong?  Butera and Punto have both been backups for WS contenders.  

I'm fine with all that.  I'm even ok with the first year approach of clearing the deck for Hicks to start.  My question is, why do we do that for hitters and the exact opposite for pitchers?

Aside from Nolasco, 100%. Milone has an option and Pelfrey can come out of the pen (or get waived).

Right, so there is only one spot despite the way you tried to portray the situation just a few posts back.  But even more than that....do you really believe that if they are better pitchers through March, April, or even May....that the Twins will just go to them?

Mind you, we've seen lopsided evidence to the contrary on this.  I want to believe it, but damned if I can.