Prospects Parked

Its not the diving.  Its the landing.   I personally would not mind a moratorium on his diving for one year.    I also love the head first slide into bases but wouldn't mind if he stopped that as well.     I am big on defense but he needs to stay healthy enough and for a long enough time to develop and show what he can do offensively.   .

I disagree that Buxton, Sano, and Rosario have to lead the turnaround.  Their offense is fine and their two main problems: starting pitching and outfield defense can be basically fixed or made acceptable with a couple key additions.

It will be great when those guys get here but we don't have to wait until then for the winning to start.

Wasn't Doug M to Fort Myers somehow family related as I remember?  What was the story there and assuming he moves, I assume that situation has changed?

Charley Walters is funny. He was actually with the Twins for a part of his life, but his Twins "notes" are always so far behind everyone else. The Mientkiewicz to Chattanooga thing came out about a month ago in an interview with Patrick Reusse on 1500ESPN. He didn't say it, but he was certainly dancing around it enough to make it pretty clear that if he wasn't the Twins manager, he would be moving up.

 

Definitely just some bad luck for Buxton. I hope they don't try to stop him from diving in the outfield. 

The best part of Charlie is he LOVES Cretin.  I will never forget a note in his quick hits about ten years ago, during the non-football season.

"So and So, assistant football coach at Cretin Derham Hall, underwent minor knee surgery Tuesday"

Thanks Charlie.

Prospects get hurt. They fail. Waiting for them and ignoring other options, like cubans, to fill your roster, is a long, slow, process. It sometimes takes decades.

I gotta hand it to you, mike, that's an impressive segue from being snake-bitten to "ignoring" other options like cubans.

The delay in seeing Sano and Buxton has hurt because they aren't just your run-of-the-mill prospects. They hold the promise of being the  type that DOES only come around once a decade for an organization. And we've had so many injuries to pitching prospects who've been ranked as top 25 guys: Wimmers, Chargois, Bard, Rosario, Romero, Williams, Melotakis, and Gibson.

Thankfully, the system is so deep that we've had the edge taken off of these injuries by Arcia, Santana, Vargas, Pinto, and Hicks, and Polanco and Rosario are close. Mike, I'm not sure Chicago has three prospects in their entire system with more upside than these 7 guys, and they surely don't have any to match up with Sano and Buxton. So naturally, it made sense for the Sox to take a huge risk on Abreu, who helped them leapfrog the Twins into 4th place in the division.

Rather than focusing on how snakebite the Twins have been, I'm celebrating the fact that, even with all those TJ's, we have 3 pitchers ranked among the top 40 prospects in all of baseball in Meyer, Berrios, and Stewart, and that we have so many young prospects in addition to the injured ones, some of whom will NOT fail, on the cusp: guys like Burdi, Reed, Tonkin, Jones, May, Meyer, and Berrios.

Contrary to your statement, mike, the Twins have not ignored other options. Wasn't Hughes another option? It might be hard to accept, but maybe they just reject your idea that overpaying (by their definition of the term) is prudent for the likes of Puig and Abreu, particularly at this stage of the rebuild. Maybe they really believe, like our idolized Cards, that going the FA route is something you do as an absolute last resort if you plan to sustain your level of success. 

And if filling your roster is going to take you decades, THEN you have a legitimate gripe about your GM.

It's a fair point, and I too have been disappointed by their general lack of aggressiveness in pursuing upgrades, but in hindsight all that was going to do was secure a few extra wins, pushing their draft slots back at the expense of millions of dollars. No amount of offseason maneuvering was going to push them from 65 wins to 90 wins.

 

I still think they should continue to seek quality players to supplement their emerging core, but until that core begins to establish itself and produce, nothing else matters all that much. And while it's true that prospects are hard to trust (as we've been seeing) the Twins have an elite group and that's a far better formula for returning to contention than simply throwing money at the problem.

Some subsribe to the philosophy that the culture and acceptance level to mediocrity needs to change.  That may help with the culture and attract others here.  Like Joe Maddon, or maybe another free agent.

I just think that no one player will add 25 wins, but using that logic will prevent from ever adding anyone.  Especially in the context of Abreu, the guy has a 6 years deal. 

It's a fair point, and I too have been disappointed by their general lack of aggressiveness in pursuing upgrades, but in hindsight all that was going to do was secure a few extra wins, pushing their draft slots back at the expense of millions of dollars. No amount of offseason maneuvering was going to push them from 65 wins to 90 wins.

 

I still think they should continue to seek quality players to supplement their emerging core, but until that core begins to establish itself and produce, nothing else matters all that much. And while it's true that prospects are hard to trust (as we've been seeing) the Twins have an elite group and that's a far better formula for returning to contention than simply throwing money at the problem.

I guess this is my point.  The core isn't emerging - it has emerged, albeit without Buxton and Sano.  There is nothing wrong with winning next regardless whether Buxton and Sano are there or are ever there.

Go get a Hughes level pitcher and colby Rasmus and we are at .500 or better which puts us in the second wild card race most of the year.

Uh, the Cards sign free agents, and trade for veterans.

 

The point on being snake bitten, is that all players carry risk. Even sure fire guys that are supposed to be elite carry risk. My argument remains that they have failed to mitigate that risk, by signing bad players, and wasting money and roster spots on them. My argument is that I don't want to wait decades, I don't even want to wait six years. Others are willing to wait, but given ticket sales, I am guessing most fans agree with me.

Uh, the Twins sign free agents, and trade for veterans.

I was responding to your original point, which was that the Twins ignore other options like cubans.

It appears you want to discuss their lack of execution now. I'll simply point out that yes, they've signed bad players and they've wasted roster spots and money on them. That's not unique to this franchise, is it? To balance that out, I'd point out that they've signed good players and used money and roster spots productively. 

Back to the original topic, which was about how injuries, something out of a GM's control, have affected the timetable. I'm personally satisfied with the degree to which they've paid attention to other options, including Cubans. You are mistaken in saying they have ignored even the Cuban market, BTW. I agree with Nick. Had the Twins made the level of expenditures on free agents that would have satisfied all but one person here on TD , I'm not sure they'd have an appreciably shorter timetable to a division title, but I'm absolutely positive that they would lack future finanical flexibility to retain our future budding stars.

Now, we can talk turkey about filling the last couple of holes via other options rather than waiting for, say, Thorpe, Stewart, and Jorge. But the two things that allow that conversation to be meaningful are that 1) we've got most of the holes projected as filled now, and 2) the timing is more conducive to perhaps signing or trading for just the right missing piece.

Back to the original topic, which was about how injuries, something out of a GM's control, have affected the timetable. 

The injuries are out of the GM's control.

Are we sure that the predictabiliity of injuries is out of the GM's control?  Is this an area where the Twins are using all available data and analysis?

Much as I disdain how Houston handled the last draft, they do sem to be using more anaylsis.

(And yes, I know that the data is limited on dratees but that wouldn't be true for international if they were willing to pony up for it.)

Colby Rasmus making this team a .500 ballclub seems like pretty high expectations.

 

I like his pop and he can play decent defense, but that guy's got some serious strikeout and walk issues.  I think for a contending team he'd merely be a platoon/4th OF.

I think he could help this team quite a bit.  Nowhere near a six win improvement though (6 for him and 6 for a starter).  Walk and K issues aside, he has been around 20 HR and 20 2B the last three years while missing time.  And he has a total dWAR of 2 over the last three years in center.  Which tells me he would be a drastic improvement in LF or RF.

Colby Rasmus making this team a .500 ballclub seems like pretty high expectations.

 

I like his pop and he can play decent defense, but that guy's got some serious strikeout and walk issues.  I think for a contending team he'd merely be a platoon/4th OF.

He is the secondary piece - what will get them to .500 is the Hughes level pitcher they need to add.

The injuries are out of the GM's control.

 

Are we sure that the predictabiliity of injuries is out of the GM's control?  Is this an area where the Twins are using all available data and analysis?

 

Much as I disdain how Houston handled the last draft, they do sem to be using more anaylsis.

(And yes, I know that the data is limited on dratees but that wouldn't be true for international if they were willing to pony up for it.)

It would be tough to argue that a lot of the injuries could have been predicted or prevented, although I suppose one could find anecdotal cases about pre-existing injury histories and make a rather flimsy case. I've wondered about this myself as it relates to the rigorous examination of medical records, which you have to assume are submitted to every club in a standardized way. And I have this vague recollection that the Twins went through a review process pertaining to this, but may be mistaken here.  

The injuries are out of the GM's control.

 

Are we sure that the predictabiliity of injuries is out of the GM's control?  Is this an area where the Twins are using all available data and analysis?

 

Much as I disdain how Houston handled the last draft, they do sem to be using more anaylsis.

(And yes, I know that the data is limited on dratees but that wouldn't be true for international if they were willing to pony up for it.)

I'm curious if there is any history of Buxton being hurt either in previous minor league seasons or in high school (including other sports he might have played). A concussion is pretty uncontrollable, but bruised wrists and a broken finger seems to have "injury-prone" ring to them. Not to imply he's soft, but maybe he gets hurt a lot. It happens. If no track record exists, then I'd say this is just a tough luck stretch. My bet is on bad luck.

I believe all of these injuries can be easily explained.  Its Dick Martin's fault.............

(long time Twins trainer in the Kelly era and before)

Their future budding stars are five or six years from being paid. I doubt signing good players now effects that.

Of course it doesn't, mike. Which is why they HAVE signed good players and will continue to sign them, but just not in a way that will probably ever satisfy you. They'll never spend enough. For example, spending for Hughes and Nolasco last year wasn't good enough, right? The players will never be good enough. For example, Nolasco isn't good enough, right? 

If the Twins did it YOUR way, mike, they'd be in deep doo-doo already, because, in spite of fan protestations, and like almost EVERY club, they'll eventually be financially constrained. Read the Cleveland blogs. The fans are up in arms about their $75 payroll budget. Read Detroit's. They're discussing how the Tigers can possibly extract themselves from a massive mess. You see, they have commitments of over $140M WITHOUT Scherzer and Hunter and Martinez. They can't really afford an outside solution without continuing to pee away cash. Their farm system options? Robbie Ray and Buck Farmer. Look 'em up. The Twins have SEVERAL pitching prospects at AAA alone better than those guys! KC is losing Shields, and they have budget constraints that aggravate their fans too. Fortunately for them, unlike Detroit, they have a decent prospect pipeline.

It's a balancing act for EVERY club. The ones going about it with an emphasis on home-grown talent are in better shape moving forward. Because it's the only sustainable and affordable strategy now.

My gripe with you, mike, is your posts like this, where you suggest they might consider "signing good players now" as if this is a completely foreign concept to them.

Detroit went all in. They lost their bet. At least they made their bet. I'd rather that happen than wait 29 years to make the playoffs. Or even 6 or 8 years. Sometimes bad things happen even if you do good things.

Glad you revised your statement to admit to last year's efforts which resulted in Hughes and Nolasco. I will just assume your view is that efforts in previous years were so unsatisfactory as to not count. For example, signing Willingham and Correia and Pelfrey and others doesn't count because it was not adequate in your view (shared by many of course).

As for Cubans, they didn't sign any, unlike half the clubs, but they scouted them. So, unless you contend they didn't do so in earnest, you are wrong in saying they ignored that option, and could perhaps understand how one could take a charitable view that they simply weren't willing to pay those bidded-up prices, rightly or wrongly.

Detroit's fans stand a chance at being frustrated for a long time. Because their strategy results in a depleted farm system and an intractable set of financial obligations extending for long after any success, it's an unsustainable strategy, which you say you prefer? No thanks, mike. It's a stupid strategy. Once their remaining aging vets spit the bit, they could easily go 6-8 years between division titles, because their prospect pipeline is the very worst in all of baseball.

At least the Twins are making a smart bet.  The fans will return. Granted, they have to execute, and they have been executing the strategy well lately. And no good strategy takes 29 years, even a poorly executed one, so I don't get your constant reference to that 29 years thing. You DO know that KC didn't follow their strategy for 29 years, right?