Potential Suitors for Brian Dozier

I am not pretending to have a crystal ball.  Nowhere have I predicted what he might do in the second half because that is pie in the sky nothing.  In this situation, I stick to the facts. Teams possibly interested in Dozier will use whatever they can to get him for less.  If these numbers are avaiilable to laypeople like us, don't you think office executives who do this for a living witl use myriad stats (these included) during the negotiation process?

 

Put all that aside, and just look at where he is now.  This was supposed to be the year for him to play for a mulityear contract.  If he gets injured or doesn't have a very strong second half he isn't going to get the deal he was hoping for before this season.  NOt even close.

I would guess that every team has people knowledgeable about data and statistics to disregard the splits meaning for future performance. The negotiation isn’t going to come down to data in a split.

It is going to be the market that sets his return. If there are multiple teams truly interested the Twins will get a better return but I am not certain that there will be a high demand for second basemen. I think the market is the relevant conversation about possible Dozier deals.

Dozier is hitting .278 / .350 / .611 in July and is notorious for his second half finishes, he has decent value.

No.  You are citing data that is real.  Where we are disagreeing is in what the data means and how (or if) it would materially impact Dozier's trade value in a 2-3 month rental scenario.  So, the things we are disagreeing on are subjective and a matter of opinion. 

Yes, this opinions are subjective, but you are dealing in absolutes when you assert the data as completely irrelevant in the negotiation process.  Not sure how you can do that.  You are essentially saying it will have no affect at all and I don't see how there is a 0% chance those numbers don't get looked at or considered.  

I surely want to get as much for Dozier as we can, but we didn't get many bites last year and that was when he was slightly more than a two month rental

I would guess that every team has people knowledgeable about data and statistics to disregard the splits meaning for future performance. The negotiation isn’t going to come down to data in a split.

It is going to be the market that sets his return. If there are multiple teams truly interested the Twins will get a better return but I am not certain that there will be a high demand for second basemen. I think the market is the relevant conversation about possible Dozier deals.

I never said the negotiation hinged on those splits.  It was only an example of ways Dozier's value can be further deflated.  As I said in the last post, there wasn't a market for him last year.  There isn't much of a market this year and he now only a two month rental.

I guess we can sell the "Dozier gets hot in the second half angle" but then that is only lip service.  What team is going to part with anything much by pinning their hopes on that?

I do agree with Jorgen that most players close and late numbers in this era will be a far cry from their overall numbers. If you're facing the closer and setup guy, it's a lot tougher than hitting against the last guy or two in the 'pen.

That was never in dispute.  It is a statistical fact that players (by and large) have worse "close and late" numbers but in the case of Dozier it is rather significant.  He is also a veteran with no postseason experience.  That can be a factor working against as well.

I am only saying what the other side of the market is going to do.  They will accentuate negatives as a means to counter the Twins.  I am not going to say "other teams should want Dozier because..."

That was never in dispute.  It is a statistical fact that players (by and large) have worse "close and late" numbers but in the case of Dozier it is rather significant.  He is also a veteran with no postseason experience.  That can be a factor working against as well.

 

I am only saying what the other side of the market is going to do.  They will accentuate negatives as a means to counter the Twins.  I am not going to say "other teams should want Dozier because..."

Dozier has no postreason experience? That was such a forgetable game last year.   What would the postseason statistics of Castro and Lowrie say about them versus the SSS of Dozier's wc game last year?  Hint Casro and Starlins OPS are about .500 after each has played in 22 games.  It makes a case that these two choked whereas Dozier shined.

You do not know that, which is why everyone is disagreeing with your posts. That is not how negotiations work.  "We will really need a 2nd baseman and RH bat, but I don't know, we have seen the numbers and in 2013 Brian Dozier in close and late situations was brutal"

You seriously don't believe the buyer teams who express interest don't also express any concerns about the player they are interested in acquiring?  You seriously don't think they try to drive the price down?

I only expressed only ONE WAY how they might do that.  I didn't even bring up his "clutchness" or lack of it.  I simply responded to a poster who dismissed it as nothing.  I am saying it MIGHT NOT be nothing to the buyer teams.

The stuff you put in quotes is your own fabrication.  Please don't try to pawn that junk off on me.

Thanks

Dozier has no postreason experience? That was such a forgetable game last year.   What would the postseason statistics of Castro and Lowrie say about them versus the SSS of Dozier's wc game last year?  Hint Casro and Starlins OPS are about .500 after each has played in 22 games.  It makes a case that these two choked whereas Dozier shined.

That one game "playoff" might be the post season to you.  It isn't to me.  That game was only a chance to make it to the post season.

Not meaning to be argumentative.  WIth that, I will pull myself out of here for a few days

Take care

That one game "playoff" might be the post season to you.  It isn't to me.  That game was only a chance to make it to the post season.

Call it what you will, the statistics sites list it as postseason. The game happens after the season ends. What is undeniable is that for the argument that Dozier does not have post season to be a valuable argument is that someone else available does have post season success.. That is not the case with the OP selections of 2b available players.  Kinsler has done well,4 years ago when he was a better player than the last couple of years. With the number of 2b available the price may well be cheaper than a fill in reliever.  The Reds, Marlins or Angels may well take a warm body.

Manny Machado has a post season OPS of .588. I do not think very many people would hold that against him. 

Well, they sent him down, and they are 3.5 games out of the playoffs for one....so I think they'll want MLB talent in return. And, my original offer included a minor league player and possibly taking back part of one of their bad contracts......

 

They aren't dealing Gray for prospects, imo, they are going to want MLB talent plus a minor league player.

 

How about Gibson, Rodney, Gonsalves , and take back around 10MM in some bad contract?

Do you really think it is likely Pohlad approves adding payroll?

Maybe not, but we do know from the past that the Rockies like Gibson.

Correct me if I am wrong, but wasn’t that a past in which he was throwing a lot more sinkers than he is now?

Right now Gibson has the lowest GB/FB ratio of his career and the lowest GO/AO since his rookie year. Unless he can flip the switch back, he doesn’t seem primed for success in Coor’s.