Twins 2024 Position Analysis: Starting Pitcher

Sonny Gray was not only Minnesota's best pitcher last year but also the team MVP. Replacing the void he left atop the rotation is one of the Twins' biggest challenges following an offseason that yielded no outside additions designed to do so.

The front office is hoping that increased roles for returning players and key breakthroughs from young talent can make up for the loss of Gray, who's already dealt with renewed right hamstring issues after signing a $75 million deal with the Cardinals. Even if he was back, there was almost no chance Gray was going to replicate his career year, so one way or another, the continued success of Minnesota's rotation was always going to depend on other returning arms taking the next step. Now the pressure is heightened. Fortunately, it's a group that's well poised to deliver.

TWINS STARTING PITCHERS AT A GLANCE

Starting Rotation: Pablo López, Joe Ryan, Bailey Ober, Chris Paddack, Louie Varland
Depth: Simeon Woods Richardson, Brent Headrick, Randy Dobnak
Prospects: David Festa, Marco Raya, Corey Lewis, Charlee Soto, C.J. Culpepper

Twins fWAR Ranking Last Year: 2nd out of 30
Twins fWAR Projection This Year: 6th out of 30

THE GOOD
Finally, the Twins have a true ace starter. There's really no quibbling with the distinction for Pablo López. After being acquired from the Marlins for Luis Arraez and signing a long-term extension, López bookended a sensational age-27 season by propelling the Twins to their first and last wins. He fired 5 ⅓ shutout innings on Opening Day, and in Game 2 of the ALDS, he blanked the Astros over seven innings in Houston.

In between, López was an All-Star and clearly one of the league's most effective, dominant starting pitchers. His 234 strikeouts tied NL Cy Young Award winner Blake Snell for third-most in the majors, and López ranked 10th among all pitchers in fWAR. On the few occasions where the right-hander got roughed up, it almost always seemed to owe more to bad luck than bad pitching. Statcast corroborates this impression: López's 3.00 xERA was considerably lower than his 3.66 ERA, and was in fact the best in all of baseball.

Having celebrated his 28th birthday earlier this month, López is in the heart of his prime. He looks healthy and strong in camp coming off a career-high workload (194 IP). Rocco Baldelli uncharacteristically made no secret of López's status as No. 1 starter this spring, and the righty's presence is easily the biggest reason for optimism about this rotation – maybe even this team.

Even in Gray's absence, the Twins should have the ability to go at least four deep with above-average starters, with lots of reason for optimism around the top four entering the season, with the fifth spot more of a question mark.

Ober has consistently been good when he's pitched in the majors, and he was as good as ever last year, successfully pushing his own workload to unprecedented heights while looking the part of a worthy No. 2 starter. There was no thought of forcing him to start the season in Triple-A this time around. 

Ryan also pitched to the level of a frontline starter for a time, before an undisclosed injury in July sent his performance in the tank, but he rebounded after time on the injured list. Ryan is one of the league's premier strikeout artists and has been excellent for long stretches. He's got to keep the home runs at bay, but his upside is easy to see if that happens. There's optimism around Ryan and some of the tweaks he's making to address the issue.

Paddack is a key figure in Minnesota's rotation outlook. He looked pretty good in his five starts in 2022 before going down with an elbow injury and requiring Tommy John surgery, which sidelined him for most of last year. Paddack threw fire during a late stint out of the bullpen, and has impressed with his stuff and velocity this spring. If the right-hander can stay healthy and pitch up to at least his career baseline (3.93 FIP) he'll be a big factor in the success of this unit.

Given the stakes surrounding his improvement, and the implications if he's not up to the task, Varland will be one of the most pivotal players in the Twins rotation picture. He was set to follow the Ober path as a top reinforcement at Triple-A, but Anthony DeSclafani's elbow issues have vaulted Varland back into the rotation spotlight after he excelled in a relief role late last year. The 26-year-old is having a very impressive spring, and there's hope that developing a two-seamer will elevate his game in a starting role. 

THE BAD
DeSclafani was the front office's lone offseason addition to the rotation. Now he's out of the picture before he had a chance to enter it. The veteran came to camp with hopes of moving past last year's flexor strain, but was unable to bounce back and now appears destined for elbow surgery.

The Twins still boast a more than respectable starting five, but the depth behind those five is vastly more suspect than it was a year ago. There's far less margin for error, which is troubling because there is considerable potential for error. 

In every rotation spot behind López at the top, credible concerns exist. Ryan was horrible in the second half, and below average overall. Ober blew past his record workload and got sent back to Triple-A in late August as the team felt his performance was waning. It's striking that despite their strong work throughout the regular season, the Twins didn't trust either of Ober or Ryan to get any leash in a postseason start. 

Paddack has thrown 27 total innings in the past two seasons and as good as he looked after coming back last year, that was as a reliever. He's a real wild card but the Twins are counting on him to deliver quality innings and help offset their losses, especially with DeSclafani going down. It's a precarious gamble for a pitcher who hasn't thrown even 110 innings in a season since he was a rookie in 2019.

Then you've got Varland, who shows promise but has much to prove in the rotation. He has yet to demonstrate he can be an impact starter in the majors; he had a 5.30 ERA and 5.49 FIP in 10 starts last season. From there you start delving into completely unproven prospect depth, via Woods Richardson, Festa and other prospects. There's talent and intrigue within this group but very little major-league experience.

THE BOTTOM LINE
It's fair to say that the Twins aren't in nearly as good of a position from a rotation quality and depth standpoint as they were a year ago, with Gray, Maeda and Mahle all on hand. At the same time, it's important not to lose sight of the forest for the trees. The Twins are in much better shape with starting pitching than a vast majority of teams around the league, as reflected by a top six projection from FanGraphs at the position.

López is the kind of building block that others envy, and the kind that Twins fans themselves have envied pretty much ever since his idol Johan Santana departed. Ober, Ryan and Paddack have given us reason to believe they can support Minnesota's unquestioned ace as key complementary pieces. But Derek Falvey's pitching pipeline will be tested if more injuries strike. By leaving themselves little room for error, the Twins are leaving themselves ample room for potential criticism.

Catch up on the rest of our spring position previews:

• Twins 2024 Position Analysis: Catcher
• Twins 2024 Position Analysis: First Base
• Twins 2024 Position Analysis: Second Base
• Twins 2024 Position Analysis: Third Base
• Twins 2024 Position Analysis: Shortstop
• Twins 2024 Position Analysis: Left Field
• Twins 2024 Position Analysis: Center Field
• Twins 2024 Position Analysis: Right Field
• Twins 2024 Position Analysis: Designated Hitter