MIN 9, HOU 5: Bats Thrive, Pitching Survives

Since I said this very thing earlier, yeah.

 

We can stop this convo since you're not reading what I've been saying.

I've been reading, just forgot that you said anything about the 7th. Regardless, I'm still not sure what Harper has to do with the conversation. Even if Odorizzi gets through the 6th and starts the 7th, it appears as though May was the one to come in to finish an inning not Harper. Or worse, Odorizzi gets bombed in the 6th and doesn't finish anyway but allows the lead to shrink further. Obviously we don't know how that scenario plays out but we've said our respective piece.

Either way, you're right that we can end this conversation. I'm perfectly content to agree to disagree.

Actually, I think Seattle might be on that pace (at least by OPS+). So maybe we'll only finish with the second best lineup in history.

(Grabs torch and pitchfork)

How would you have the Twins assess that they not only are struggling but reasonably project a struggle that will continue moving forward?

I responded to a similar question earlier... Specifically asking about a couple of bullpen arms but the same would apply for hitters. 

See below:

That would depend on many factors. The peripherals, is the issue fixable and how many struggling arms are you needing to absorb poor performance from at the time of having to make a decision.

You can slow down usage and control leverage with one guy for some rope to turn it around. Two guys can be handled but it’s obviously more taxing depending on the length of both players struggling. 3 guys and you need to start making hard decisions and make those decisions quickly.

Bottom line: We should never allow a struggling player the opportunity to drag the team down by forcing poor performance into the collective output.

Hitters or Pitchers... the first move is always slowing down usage while you identify the problem. If the problem is taking awhile to correct... there are a bunch of considerations that will factor into any subsequent action. Does the player have options, Is the player listening to coaching, is the player progressing. Projections are important but waiting for the projection to realize while absorbing lenghty sub-par play will kill your season. 

The Twins front office needs to think of this team as contenders right now and continue doing so until the team gives them a reason to think otherwise. 

How should the Twins decide a player is struggling and most importantly that they will continue to struggle?

Your response didn’t make it clearer, but maybe that is because it would be impossible for me watching from afar to make that determination. I don’t think I can turn to fangraphs or baseball reference to make that determination in the short term. I certainly don’t want the Twins to make a decision about the next game based on the previous few games.

It seems like you are asking for a new fool proof projection when the old projection isn't working. I don't have the answer for that and neither does the front office. 

All I'm asking is that instead of taking those projections and developing 9 hitters... develop 12 hitters instead and increase your odds in the process. Let the players separate themselves and the projections will change accordingly. Projections are based upon on how players perform. If you don't let the player perform... he can't change the projection.

You can make the right decision in the short term based on performance today. Let the players who are hitting continue to hit. Slow down (not bench completely) the usage of players like Marwin who are not. If the tide turns... follow it. The players should dictate... not the projections. If you find that you can't play a player anymore... get someone else.  

If the Astros decided to trade Correa to us tomorrow for International Signing Pool Money. Would you bench Polanco tomorrow because Correa is projected to be better? 

I wouldn't. Would you pass on Correa because you have Polanco... I wouldn't. 

Now replace Correa and Polanco with Astudillo and Marwin. Do you really put Astudillo on the bench for Marwin at this moment? I wouldn't. Get yourself 12 players who can play and play them. 

Baldelli is doing a pretty good job getting everyone in and letting them compete. We will see what happens when clear separation starts to rear it's ugly head. For now... I hope he keeps it up and I hope the team keeps it up so he has to sweat figuring out who plays today. 

I've been asking for depth... I've gotten it. 

The Dodgers have been doing this for years and they are miles ahead of most teams as a result. It isn't the FA money they are spending... it's their ability to find talent all over the place and playing that talent. Dave Roberts and the Dodgers would not bench Astudillo but Molitor would. The Dodgers will bench Dozier and Forsythe... Molitor will continue to play them. 

You develop depth by playing your depth. 

I apologize if I haven't answered your question directly... Maybe a specific scenerio will help me zero in on what you are asking. 

Do we agree that we can’t use the last few days of stats available in Fangraphs to determine who is hitting?

If not, that is where we disagree.

Few Days? I'll give you a lot more than that. 

Rosario started the season 1 for 17. I'm still playing him but at the same time... it is perfectly OK to let Rosario sit one day so Jake Cave can take a couple of swings and it's OK to let Jake Cave take a couple of swings for Max Kepler during the same stretch and over time... separation will happen naturally that the manager can recognize along with you and I. 

Now... It's April 23rd: Marwin is slugging .259 while Astudillo is slugging. 523. I'm at the point now where Astudillo should play more and Marwin should play less. We can all see the seperation... And I'm still happy that we signed Marwin and don't feel Marwin should be benched to the point that he can't pull himself out. Return him to the utility role he was signed to play and move him around the diamond to get AB's. Give Astudillo more time at 3B while we await the return of Sano and let's see if Astudillo can continue. I'm also ready to give Garver more playing time behind the plate and occasional first base to see if he can keep doing it. 

What's happening right now was what I was begging for last summer and this off-season and facing heavy resistance on. 

I don't want to get Logan Morrison'd with no attempted alternative ever again. 

And say Adrianza goes 4-4. You say keep going with the hot hand.
How many consecutive 0-fer's before you decide he's not the hot hand anymore?

It's not day trading... It's trend trading. Watch your indicators. 

This depth concept is so foreign to Minnesota Twins Fans because we've never had it.

Let's say below is your current roster:

JT Realmuto

Gary Sanchez

Paul Goldschmidt

Cody Bellinger

Jose Altuve

Whit Merrifield

Nolan Arenado

Manny Machado

Francisco Lindor

Mike Trout

Christian Yelich

Bryce Harper

JD Martinez

Who plays? Who Sits? Does Bryce Harper still play every day? Does Whit Merrifield only play on getaway days? Are you picking out the best 9 players and letting the other 4 players gather dust or are you going to figure out a way to play everyone. 

Now it's May 1st: Lindor is hitting .220 with 1 home run while Machado is hitting .300 with 8 home runs. Do you start playing Machado more and Lindor less? 

Once you figure out what you'd do with the depth of the above group. 

Replace Realmuto with Castro and Replace Sanchez with Garver and so forth until you have our current Twins roster. And figure out what to do with the depth of the Minnesota Twins. Not as talented as the above group but depth none-the-less. 

BTW... If Adrianza goes 4-4... Why not play him again tomorrow to see if he can do it again? To reward a good game with another.  

4-4 doesn't indicate a hot hand per se but if he isn't allowed to go 6-8 and then 10 for 20... He will never be a hot hand and you've killed him by choice and there is nothing he can do but sit on the bench and pray that Polanco pulls a hamstring. 

if Adrianza goes 4 for 4 I thank my lucky stars and put Polanco back in the lineup tomorrow. I have oodles of history to tell me my chances are better with Polanco.

109 times out of 100 opportunities.... And I'm leaving that typo in there!

if Adrianza goes 4 for 4 I thank my lucky stars and put Polanco back in the lineup tomorrow. I have oodles of history to tell me my chances are better with Polanco.

To clear any confusion... I'm not comfortable using Adrianza as the test subject here but he was the player mentioned so I continued with him as the example. I have my own personal belief on the potential of Adrianza going forward and I believe my thoughts are similar to yours. 

Where you and I seem to leave the train station on different tracks is that I believe that a player is capable of improving dramatically with an adjustment that will render past results meaningless. This is the job of the coaches to improve performance. If a players performance can't be improved... might as well tell the coaches to ignore that player. 

If Adrianza is not given the opportunity to show that coaching/adjustments are working. There is no point keeping him on the roster. He becomes a dead weight road block to bringing in someone who might be given the chance to show something and every time the organization takes this approach, it leaves a speed bump to slow the organization in the pursuit of finding players who produce for winning today or future value tomorrow. 

If the manager doesn't want to play him. The front office must send him packing. We've done the develop Trevor Plouffe and Trevor Plouffe only to get nothing back in trade value and very little in production for the plain ole winning of ball games.This has led to the approaching of a decade of perpetual mediocrity. We can talk about signing Free Agents all day long... We haven't been big shoppers so we got to produce our own. 

If you want to produce a Watermelon... Plant two of them to increase your odds. If you just plant one... it may die on the vine leaving you with no Watermelon until you plant again next year. 

This is why Depth is important... This is why you need 25 people who can play. If you don't want to play Adrianza but you roster him... you have 24 people who can play and a wasted seed not planted. Your Watermelon Harvest is now contingent on one seed surviving. 

That's the problem though, Bri. MLB teams are only 25 players, and only 12 or 13 of then apply since the rest are pitchers. You make these broad statements about "25 players," but when an actual concrete example of one of them is examined, you tell us "but not Adrianza."

I think your idea misses a couple important points.

Generally, players improve by playing. However, in most cases you can use history to tell you how much improvement you might expect. When a player cant regularly catch up to MLB fastballs, no amount of coaching, Or playing time is going to improve him. Meanwhile, wasting playing time on him means you are depriving the better player of playing time to improve HIS game. Every game you give Adrainza in 2017 and 2018 lessens the chance Polanco breaks out in 2019.

Adrianza isnt here to play every day. He's with the Twins because he's the best suited player they have to back up several infield positions. Potentially better players exist in the minors, but they stay there so they can play every day. Adrianza doesn't steal playing time from anyone.

Unless you believe Adrianza is better, and should play every day, it doesnt matter how he does in a single game, or a week of playing to cover an injury.

Same for every player, in every team. The Dodgers aren't giving lesser players extended aying time either. They just have better players, including reserves, but those reserves are still reserves.

Paragraph by Paragraph

1. I'm not saying "not Adrianza"... I'm saying my (personal opinion) of Adrianza based on what I'm seeing... If I was the GM... I would have signed Tim Beckham (for example) instead. But... my larger point is more about the fundamentals of building your roster and not my opinion of "Any Specific Player". I will put aside my personal thoughts on Adrianza (mostly) and defer to the front office's judgement instead. What I will be watching is how Adrianza is then deployed after. Ultimately... what I'm saying is... if the front office puts a player on the roster... they must believe in that player and utilize that player. If they roster any player with the thought that the player won't play much... it's a severe error in the fundamentals of roster construction and ultimately, it will leave the organization no choice but to suffer through Logan Morrison type performance with no alternative or not have a sufficient replacement for any injury that may occur.  I'm saying that fundamentally... they can't waste any of the precious 25 man roster spots and this fundamental change in roster construction is not only necessary but critical. I'm not asking for certain players anymore... I'm out of that game. I'm saying the Twins (and most of the teams) have lacked this critical fundamental and this has increased the length of the rebuild to a time frame that has exceeded my tolerance. I believed in Tyler Austin... I was sad to see him go but that's a personal opinion and I'm moving on because I'm not going to concern myself with individual players... my concern is strictly fundamental going forward... how are the chosen players deployed. 

2. You've been talking to my wife. 

3.If a player can't catch up to fastball... he has no business on a MLB roster. This type of player is going to struggle when he just plays getaway days... I'm saying that these players must be taken out of the equation and replaced with players who can catch up to major league fastballs.   GM's can track the progression of every baseball player across history and combine them into a collective and this will provide a baseline for the average. However, There are always players who will blow that baseline out of the water and players who crash and burn well below the baseline and the question is this... How do you find those players who will blow that baseline out of the water. The answer is... you play them.  Most players are tossed aside without a chance to prove themselves and if you are saying that no matter what (insert player here) does, he will never get a chance to play, you've just shut the door on a source of player acquisition and a source for zero to something increased player value. The Twins have been doing what you have suggested for decades and the rebuild is taking a real long time as you know. You frequently imply "open the damn pocketbook and get better players" but you offer no solution for the what happens when the 100 million dollar free agent breaks his ankle in May.    I'm saying... yes... open the pocketbook and... and prepare for the possibility that the free agent breaks his ankle. You do this by not looking at those 4 spots as players who will never play.   You create depth by playing your depth. On to Jorge Polanco in your example... Right now... I'm not taking Polanco out of the lineup for anyone but If I did... 1 game on the bench out of 7 games will not stall his development. You will only lessen his development if the manager makes Polanco sit every single time he plays Adrianza. If a manager can't figure out how to spread it around... he shouldn't be managing. Depth doesn't have to be complicated.  

4. I don't believe Adrianza was the best choice to backup the infield positions but if the front office does... as I said earlier... I will defer to their judgement. But again... fundamentally... I'm not looking to roster anyone with a backup designation. Those who live near the Adrianza will end up in the Adrianza. Backups have to move to starting roles all the time... it happens every year... thinking of them as backups is a lack of preparation for the injuries and poor performance that happens every single year without fail. If the Twins have the chance to acquire Sterling Marte... I hope that doesn't mean that Kepler will never play for us again and I hope they don't say no to his acquisition because they have Max Kepler.  

5. If you don't allow Adrianza or anyone else to continue doing well when they are doing well... he will never do well, so just cut him, quit wasting everyone's time and bring in someone else. The easiest way to kill a career, kill potential increase in value is to simply bench a player when he is doing well.

6. The Dodgers are the exact model of what I'm talking about. They are not rostering Adrianza types and the players are better but Max Muncy, Justin Turner, Chris Taylor, Enrique Hernandez were players who they picked up out of nowhere, they put them in the lineup and when they played well, they let them continue and that's how they have better players. They didn't buy their depth... they created it with their own hands by planting two watermelon seeds instead of one. This is a fundamental difference between the Dodgers and most of the other clubs in baseball and why the Dodgers are bulletproof. You may want to call David Freese a backup, but he has played 4 out of the last 6 games. (I admit mainly because they faced a bunch of lefties). You'll have to look a long way back to find a player gathering dust on the bench and if you find it... you'll find abysmal numbers attached to that player (Chase Utley). Believe me... I researched it.