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    MIN 4, OAK 3: Twins Refuse to Lose Three in a Row


    AJ Condon

    The Minnesota Twins escape, again, from losing three games in a row this season. This was the Twins’ eighth time on the brink of a three-game losing streak, but they continue to show success. A late-inning push and a solid performance from the bullpen was the formula for tonight’s win.

    Image courtesy of FanGraphs

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    Box Score

    Starter: 6 IP, 5 H, 2 ER, 4 BB, 5 K, 55.9% strikes (57 of 102 pitches)

    Bullpen: 6 IP, 4 H, 0 ER, 3 BB, 8 K

    Home Runs: Jorge Polanco (11)

    Multi-Hit Games: Garver (2-6), Arraez (3-5)

    WPA of +0.1: Harper .104, Duffey .135, Polanco .137, Schoop .181, Rogers .195, Garver .265, Parker .269, Arraez .295

    WPA of -0.1: Gibson -.110, Buxton -.117, Cron -.175,Sano -.311, Adrianza -.391

    Twins’ Late Comeback

    After not getting a baserunner until there were two outs in the fifth inning, the Twins were able to put together a little comeback to tie the game late and ultimately win the game. The comeback started by getting three singles off Fiers in the sixth to grab their first run of the game. The two outs that followed were balls that almost drove in another run, but a nice play by Laureano and a blooper by Cron ended the threat.

    The Twins got into the Athletic’s bullpen in the seventh, and were able to score a run right away thanks to an error by Barretto on the throw to first base. Polanco was able to tie the game on a two-out solo shot in the eighth.

    The Twins were able to take advantage of a pair of one-out walks in the twelfth and took the lead with a go-ahead single by Mitch Garver on a full-count. He delivered a single into left field, and the speedy Byron Buxton was able to hustle around third and score. They failed to extend their lead with the bases loaded and one out on a nice place by Chapman at third to get a double play to end the inning.

    Lights Out Bullpen

    The bullpen came into the game with a 3-2 deficit and made it possible for the Twins to fight back. They have been very solid in the games of late, and continued their success tonight. They threw a combined six shutout innings while only allowing four hits.

    Blake Parker dug himself into the biggest hole for the bullpen in the tenth with two lead-off walks, but thanks to Sano’s defense, no runs were scored. He worked around those walks and had a relatively easy 11th inning.

    Taylor Rogers made this game interesting in the 12th, though it wasn’t completely on him. The inning started on an error by Schoop and was very close to becoming a problem. But, Profar tried to extend his single into a double on the throw to third, and the Twins were able to get him out after a challenge and were left with a runner on third with two outs. Rogers was able to close the game out with a strikeout and he picked up his 11th save of the year.

    Gibson’s Mistake

    Gibson had a relatively good start tonight, but his one mistake will be the talking point of his start. This mistake came in the second inning after an error by Cron and a walk to lead off the inning. What followed was an at-bat that almost decided the game, and was the first hit by the Athletics, a three-run home run by Laureano.

    His struggles came with not being able to find the strike zone early in the count. Out of the 26 batters he faced, he got a first-pitch strike on only 13 of the batters. He had to work behind in the count and was chasing batters throughout the night, which led to the four walks he gave up.

    After the second inning, Gibson settled in for the most part. He didn’t have any 1-2-3 innings after the first, but was able to keep the score the same as he left it after the second. Even after having a rough couple of innings, Gibson was able to finish six innings. Gibson also had two double plays turned behind him.

    Gibson was able to pick up the no-decision with some mid-late inning runs that were capped by a Jorge Polanco solo shot in eighth.

    Fiers Brings Trouble

    Mike Fiers came into tonight’s game allowing no more than two runs in five of his last six starts. Tonight, he had a perfect game going into the fifth, and didn’t give up a baserunner until Sano hit a double with two outs in the fifth that ultimately led to nothing. He managed to throw 68 percent of his pitches as strikes as well as getting ahead of 14 out of the 23 batters he faced with a first-pitch strike.

    The Twins were able to scare Fiers out of the game after they got three hits in the sixth, which led to their first run, and a single to lead off the seventh. He finished with only five hits and one earned run while striking out four and giving no free bases. He set the Athletics for a chance to win the series, but the Twins’ offense had different plans.

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    I agree with you. The angst toward the bullpen doesn't match what has actually taken place. 

     

    Personally, my guess is that the bullpen hasn't really been tested (starters throwing the majority of all innings, lots of offensive run production). 

     

    I could be wrong... but more importantly, I don't want to be right. 

     

    I'm hopeful we find some guys (plural) to safeguard against the possibility that I am.  :)

    You are absolutely right in that the offense has taken some pressure off and the starting pitching has as well.    It is way different than when our starters would have one or two each rotation where they couldn't make it through the 4th inning.   It just wears out  a bullpen.   On the flip side though, is that our starters still rarely get past the 6th inning.   Also, while I know save stats aren't everything they are somewhat indicative.    Yankees have 42 saves but they have blown 13 of them.   Twins have 31 saves and have only blown 6.     If they had more opportunities that percentage would probably go down but I think they have done well.   I liken it a little to a couple years ago when we made the playoffs.    If we were down 4-2 in the 7th or 5-1 in the 5th we might lose 11-4 but if we were up or tied when they pen came in, then they held.   In other words they gave up a lot in games they were likely to lose anyway and held on when they had a good chance of winning.   This year is a little different.   Maybe they have been given bigger leads and have given up a few runs but they haven't broken and there have been plenty of games like last night where they have given up very little in 3+ innings in very close games.   I have some faith in Rogers, Harper, May, Duffey and Parker.   That's 5 and there are a couple other guys that are ok.    I would be happy with one more because I don't think they will get two and I fear they won't get any.

     

    He has a different style, for sure. But I think we can give him a lot of credit for where the team is, heading into the All Star break.

    I tend to not give managers a lot of credit or blame.    Rocco has had a couple moves in the pen that have made me go "huh?" but every manager does that and every manager gets criticized for bullpen usage.   I like that for the most part he has rotated players in to keep everyone fresh.  We've played 85 games and Polanco is the only one that has played more than 77.   I suspect hitting and pitching coaches have more to do with results but I will give Rocco a more than passing grade.

     

    Everybody should have a voice. The internet gives each voice a microphone and not everyone should have a microphone.

     

    You remind me that the internet hasn't figured this problem out yet. 

    That sounds like a friend of mine that was running a meeting and when asked a question said "thanks for reminding me to tell you all there is no such thing as a stupid question".

    The last couple of weeks the Twins have been about what most of us thought they would be before the season: Solid but inconsistent. Most forecasters had us at ~85-90 wins, not 95-100, and that's consistent with what's been happening.

     

    It seems that we were deluding ourselves if we thought that the team could keep winning two out of three. But the great start gives us a cushion to challenge to win the division, rather than just squeezing into a wild card spot, if we can play at the expected, solid, pace for the rest of the season.

    True but of course he did not commit an error

    I admit I’ve missed a few innings but I’ve seen the significant majority of all innings.

     

    Arraez is perhaps the only player who played out of position and I haven’t seen Arraez cost us an inch of ground when playing LF.

     

    Our recent defensive struggles have been accumulating by players playing their natural position and I assume are a natural part of typical ebb and flow.

    All I am saying is he isnt some magical manager. His lack of emotion during the game and his take practice whenever approach is showing overall when it comes to errors.

     

    There has been many instances that shows he is lacking experience.

    It’s like your asking for a guy to peel an orange for you. He grabs the orange, peels it and hands you the orange ready to eat.

     

    Yet you are not happy with the final result because he used his left hand or something.

     

    I gave up looking for magical managers a long time ago and if you look around the league, those inexperienced managers are beating the experienced now out of work experienced managers.

    I like conversations about errors because everyone says these days that errors don't show whether or not someone is a good defender. It's like saying triples don't matter.

     

    Anyway, for some perspective, the 91 Twins had some stretches where they had an alarming number of errors.

     

    One interesting fact: The Twins have 54 errors as a team, but only 3 errors are by their starting outfield. This infield is terrible and opposing teams are figuring it out, and each infielder has a different weakness. It's a train wreck out there.

    I once texted a new employee that we were a "safety" first company and auto correct changed it to a "suicide" first company.

     

    I didn't notice it until after I hit send. That auto-correction really changed the meaning of the sentence.

     

    I think the Twins should go back to Nose/Chin/Nose/Ear instead of texting.

    I notice this post was not surrounded by "True story".

    I was curious about the extra inning games and where the Twins rank in innings played.

     

    It was difficult to get a definitive picture because teams have played a different number of games. The spread is more than I would expect. The Tigers have only played 82. Seattle is already at 90. The Twins are at 85 (through yesterday), which is fewer than “average”. However, they have pitched more innings than the average team. It is worth noting that the Twins are the only team below average in games played that is above average in innings.

     

    Since fielding was also mentioned, I would point out that the Twins are roughly league average in total errors and fielding percentage. However, in the “old days” even bad Twins teams were among the best fielding teams in the league. Their team UZR/150 ranks second only to the Dodgers and their range rating is by far the best in the league. Bottom line: the Twins may be making more errors but it usually is because they are getting to balls that would be clean hits against anyone else.

    I was curious about the extra inning games and where the Twins rank in innings played.

    It was difficult to get a definitive picture because teams have played a different number of games. The spread is more than I would expect. The Tigers have only played 82. Seattle is already at 90. The Twins are at 85 (through yesterday), which is fewer than “average”. However, they have pitched more innings than the average team. It is worth noting that the Twins are the only team below average in games played that is above average in innings.

    Since fielding was also mentioned, I would point out that the Twins are roughly league average in total errors and fielding percentage. However, in the “old days” even bad Twins teams were among the best fielding teams in the league. Their team UZR/150 ranks second only to the Dodgers and their range rating is by far the best in the league. Bottom line: the Twins may be making more errors but it usually is because they are getting to balls that would be clean hits against anyone else.

    The Twins also have the most road wins, adding some “bottom of 9th” innings they wouldn’t otherwise have.

    Bottom line: the Twins may be making more errors but it usually is because they are getting to balls that would be clean hits against anyone else.

    I doubt this is the case. Scorekeepers are trained to give errors only when plays require "normal effort."

     

    Any ball that's on the edge of a player's range isnt considered "normal effort," so it's very unlikely an error would be assessed because the Twins are getting to more balls.

     

    It's possible a throwing error or two has resulted from a Twin trying to save a single from becoming a double, but that's about the only way range leads to more errors assessed.

     

    I admit I’ve missed a few innings but I’ve seen the significant majority of all innings.

    Arraez is perhaps the only player who played out of position and I haven’t seen Arraez cost us an inch of ground when playing LF.

    Our recent defensive struggles have been accumulating by players playing their natural position and I assume are a natural part of typical ebb and flow.

    I think you are being generous the ebb is the flow out to sea and that is where our fielding is flowing!

     




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