Let's Overanalyze the Opening Day Lineup!

In general, far too much is made of the way managers choose to construct their batting orders. At the end of the day, the impact of lineup sequencing on run production is far less dramatic than most people believe. It's not that big of a deal.

Having said that, the Opening Day lineup does seem to have an added layer of meaning. It can tell us a lot about how the manager views various hitters, how he envisions rallies coming together, how he intends to set up late-game scenarios. Even someone like Rocco Baldelli, who generally rolls his eyes at questions about his batting orders, surely puts a little more stock into this one he's been waiting six months to write out. That doesn't mean he'll stick with it though; last year the Twins used 154 different lineups over the course of the season.

Baldelli and the Twins just shared their first lineup of the season for today's game against right-hander Sonny Gray and the Cardinals in St. Louis. Let's overanalyze it! First, here's a quick snapshot, and then we'll drill down into each spot.

1. Matt Wallner, RF
2. Carlos Correa, SS
3. Byron Buxton, CF
4. Trevor Larnach, DH
5. Ryan Jeffers, C
6. Ty France, 1B 
7. Willi Castro, 2B 
8. José Miranda, 3B
9. Harrison Bader, LF

1. Matt Wallner, RF
Rocco telegraphed this preference early in the spring, raising eyebrows by writing Wallner into the leadoff spot quickly once games started. At the time, Baldelli called it a "concept in action," hinting that he wasn't opposed to sticking with it. Wallner continued to appear atop the order throughout the spring, and he responded by posting an .833 OPS with six home runs—more than twice any other Twin—in a stark reversal of his struggles last March.

Indeed, Wallner has come a very long way since then. Entering 2024, the team's faith in him was so delicate that they demoted him to Triple-A after two weeks. Entering 2025, he's batting leadoff with Baldelli talking him up as one of the best hitters in the league. 

"I’m not a fortune-teller, but I know his track record is really strong. I know I like guys who hit like Matt Wallner." - Rocco Baldelli on Matt Wallner (via the Star Tribune)

2. Carlos Correa, SS
He's the heart and soul of this team, so it's no surprise to see Correa in the damage spot where managers often plant their best player. The shortstop primarily batted second for the Twins in 2022, and in the first half of 2023 before his injury-related limitations became clear. Since then he's moved around the lineup a bit more. Last year on Opening Day he batted fourth—against a lefty no less.

Correa finding himself back in the No. 2 position this year seems to be a signal of Baldelli's confidence that the 30-year-old is back to his old self. That'd be excellent news for the Twins. Correa didn't put up big numbers this spring but the underlying metrics were encouraging, and he finished strong.

3. Byron Buxton, CF
Buxton followed up his healthiest season in years with perhaps his healthiest offseason ever. The center fielder was ecstatic about being able to experience a normal winter, rather than rehabbing and recovering. This carried over into a spring training that was blissfully free of incidents or setbacks. 

We don't know how long it will last, but right now Buxton is in great shape physically, and he looks ready to thrive coming off a stellar spring that saw him slash .317/.420/.585 with three homers, seven walks, and even a couple of steals. When on his game he's one of the most dangerous hitters in baseball.

4. Trevor Larnach, DH
After three years of struggling to break through in the majors, Larnach finally established himself in 2024. He overcame his vulnerability to non-fastballs, holding his own against offspeed stuff and drastically reducing his strikeout rate while continuing to hit the ball very hard upon contact. 

Larnach's .434 slugging percentage and 15 home runs last year might not jump off the page for a cleanup man, but those numbers understate his power-hitting ability. He ranked in the 90th percentile for average exit velocity, and in the 80th percentile for xSLG. Mark him down as my pick for first home run of the season.

"He does a little bit of everything. He hits the ball hard. He can put some balls in the seats, which is still something that you’re looking for from your team." - Rocco Baldelli on Trevor Larnach (via MLB)

5. Ryan Jeffers, C
Last year on Opening Day, Jeffers batted second. It was a big show of faith, and a well-warranted one coming off a season where he was one of the best-hitting catchers in baseball. He went on to hit 10 homers with a .997 OPS in his first 36 games. Then, from May 15th through the end of the season, he slashed .198/.269/.347, posting a lower OPS over the final 4 ½ months (.616) than Christian Vázquez (.639).

Which version of Jeffers will we see this year? The fact that he's batting fifth on Opening Day indicates that the Twins are expecting to see the good version—the slugger who can make an impact in the middle of the lineup. 

“I don’t want to be known as just a good-hitting catcher. I want to be known as a good hitter all around.” - Ryan Jeffers this spring (via the Star Tribune)

6. Ty France, 1B
The Twins signed France to replace their 2024 first-base stalwart, Carlos Santana. France is coming off a rotten season and looking to rebound on a $1 million contract. His spring performance was extremely encouraging, and probably helped motivate Baldelli to place the 30-year-old relatively high in the lineup. Now we'll see if the positive signs were legit.

Sandwiching two righties on either side of Larnach (and Wallner for that matter) will make it exceedingly tough for an opposing manager to play matchups against Minnesota's lefty bats late in games. No doubt that is by design.

7. Willi Castro, 2B
Castro led the team in games started last year and was named team MVP, so it's not terribly surprising he gets the nod over Edouard Julien at second base on Opening Day. In 2024 Castro was most likely to either find himself at the top of the batting order (48 leadoff appearances) or further down (74 starts in the 6th/7th/8th spots). While he's a decent hitter, it's going to be a better sign for the Twins offense if he finds himself down in this area more frequently this season. 

At this spot in the lineup, his switch-hitting ability and speed can be dynamic assets helping to make things happen. I expect the Twins to use him as a disruptive force nested between a group of slow-footed righty sluggers.

"He’s very capable of being an above-average baserunner, being aggressive, stretching the limits, making the defense rush, stealing some bases. He can do all of those things, and I think he’s mentally prepared to do all those things.” - Rocco Baldelli on Willi Castro this spring (via the Pioneer Press)

8. José Miranda, 3B
Last year Miranda was an all-world hitter in the first half and a total flop in the second half, hitting zero home runs. For a bat-first player like him to find himself this low in the order is telling; he's got something to prove. It's an opportunity he'll be primed to take advantage of, with Royce Lewis and Brooks Lee on the sidelines. 

9. Harrison Bader, LF
Hopefully we will not see Bader starting in an outfield corner against a right-handed starter too frequently. That's not an ideal scenario since he has a career .239/.302/.367 slash line against righties. But Bader was Minnesota's "big money" offseason acquisition, signed to a $6.25 million contract that represented more than half of their total expenditure, so it figures they would feature him on the first day of the season.

Buried at the bottom of the lineup as a high-caliber defender in left, Bader's not really a liability. Having his bat in the lineup is a luxury the Twins can afford if everyone above him hits the way they're capable of.

What are your thoughts on the Opening Day lineup? Any surprises? Anything you'd change? Sound off in the comments as we count down to first pitch.