Jorge Polanco At SS Could Be Disastrous

The Twins can do several things to improve the pitching without wasting their best trade chip.  Even doing nothing, they can't expect positive regression.  They can improve pitching by getting a pitch framing catcher (if you think that's a thing).  They can improve pitching by improving the defense - esp the OF defense.  I think they've done some of these.  Obviously, if pitch framing is a thing, Castro is supposed to be good at it.  An OF of Rosario/Buxton/Kepler should be an upgrade over last year, provided they hit and stay in the lineup.  I'm not sold on the IF defense and, outside of Buxton, they don't have anyone who should be much more than average at best.  But it's still an upgrade.

 

If you don't want to role with Santana, Gibson, Santiago, May, Berrios (my guess for opening day), you can sign a FA starter like Hammel, who would probably be as effective as the "and junk" part of any De Leon trade.  

 

What "similar deals?"  If you're talking about Dozier trades, again, I think you try and look at trades either of similar players or similar expected value.  Ben Zorbrist was traded by Oakland to KC for half a season.  KC received a pitcher in Manaea, who is pretty close to De Leon now, and a relief pitcher/occasional starter.  The Royals were probably expecting maybe 1.5-2 WAR from Zobrist in that half season (optimistically) + bonus for making them a playoff team/WS contender.    Dozier's expected value to the Dodgers - 8 WAR - is four times that of Zobrist's expected value to the Royals.  So his return should be more than a top 50 prospect and a AAAA player.  And so on

Only if there is demand.

The Twins can do several things to improve the pitching without wasting their best trade chip.  Even doing nothing, they can't expect positive regression.  They can improve pitching by getting a pitch framing catcher (if you think that's a thing).  They can improve pitching by improving the defense - esp the OF defense.  I think they've done some of these.  Obviously, if pitch framing is a thing, Castro is supposed to be good at it.  An OF of Rosario/Buxton/Kepler should be an upgrade over last year, provided they hit and stay in the lineup.  I'm not sold on the IF defense and, outside of Buxton, they don't have anyone who should be much more than average at best.  But it's still an upgrade.

 

If you don't want to role with Santana, Gibson, Santiago, May, Berrios (my guess for opening day), you can sign a FA starter like Hammel, who would probably be as effective as the "and junk" part of any De Leon trade.  

 

What "similar deals?"  If you're talking about Dozier trades, again, I think you try and look at trades either of similar players or similar expected value.  Ben Zorbrist was traded by Oakland to KC for half a season.  KC received a pitcher in Manaea, who is pretty close to De Leon now, and a relief pitcher/occasional starter.  The Royals were probably expecting maybe 1.5-2 WAR from Zobrist in that half season (optimistically) + bonus for making them a playoff team/WS contender.    Dozier's expected value to the Dodgers - 8 WAR - is four times that of Zobrist's expected value to the Royals.  So his return should be more than a top 50 prospect and a AAAA player.  And so on

This is helpful.  But I'd like to point out, you are fixing the pitching with basically the same crew we had last year.  Serious question - how good can that group ever really be?

While I expect a better year from Gibson and Berrios, I expect a worse year from Santana.  I also value having Buxton in CF all year and Castro.  (i'm on the record being heavily in favor of that move)  But we're also about to throw Polanco back at shortstop and Parker pointed out how the metrics aligned way too closely with Nishioka for my comfort level.  And shortstop is the most important position.  

Either way, your pitching plan can't possibly inspire even you with much confidence right?  That's a very low upside group.  You're basically just hoping for "not terrible".  How do we actually become good?  And I ask because I like to think your answer really isn't any different from mine when I say "take DeLeon and another solid piece".  (just so you see I have a purpose in this)

The Zobrist deal has been discussed previously.  While I agree they should do better than Manaea and filler, you could easily make the case that DeLeon + something relevant already does that.  What we don't know is what else was being offered.  If it was junk, i understand walking away.  If it wasn't junk (i.e. Calhoun, Stewart, etc) than I think differently.

I also wonder, if the SP can be fixed with the current system and 1 FA, and the offense is "set", why was Ryan fired?

This is helpful.  But I'd like to point out, you are fixing the pitching with basically the same crew we had last year.  Serious question - how good can that group ever really be?

 

But it's not.  We've already removed 46 starts from that group (Nolasco, Dean, Albers, Meyer, Milone) and hopefully another 26 with Duffey into the pen.  If nothing else happens, at a minimum we'll get at least 25-40% new starts.  

I agree that Santana won't be as good but last year he and Gibson combined for 55 starts and 4.4 WAR.  I think, even with regression, they can be a bit better.  Berrios is the big one, of course.  If he's pitching like last year, we're ****ed. But if turns into even a 2 WAR player, that's a huge swing.  The point is, we don't have to take a deal we don't like to improve the rotation.  

But it's not.  We've already removed 46 starts from that group (Nolasco, Dean, Albers, Meyer, Milone) and hopefully another 26 with Duffey into the pen.  If nothing else happens, at a minimum we'll get at least 25-40% new starts.  

 

I agree that Santana won't be as good but last year he and Gibson combined for 55 starts and 4.4 WAR.  I think, even with regression, they can be a bit better.  Berrios is the big one, of course.  If he's pitching like last year, we're ****ed. But if turns into even a 2 WAR player, that's a huge swing.  The point is, we don't have to take a deal we don't like to improve the rotation.  

But those improvements are dicey at best and have extremely limited upside both next year and going forward.  I mean, I appreciate the plan, but I'd be aiming for much better than this.  This, at best, is hoping to be "not terrible" maybe "below average bordering on ok".  That's just not good enough.

But those improvements are dicey at best and have extremely limited upside both next year and going forward.  I mean, I appreciate the plan, but I'd be aiming for much better than this.  This, at best, is hoping to be "not terrible" maybe "below average bordering on ok".  That's just not good enough.

True, only Berrios has high upside but wasting Dozier isn't the way to fix it either.  Brock Stewart slips right into the back of our rotation, for instance.  (And most agree he wasn't offered with De Leon).  So it doesn't look like - at this time - the Dozier trade wasn't going to move the needle much on the rotation.  So you don't do it.  

The Twins do need better pitchers at the ML level.  They have a handful of ranked prospects in AA/AAA right now.  They have three picks in the top 37 (I think) in a college deep draft, and they can trade guys like Dozier or Santana.  The Santana rumor mill is pretty empty and the best deal we've seen for Dozier hasn't been enough for most people.  So that's what's left.

True, only Berrios has high upside but wasting Dozier isn't the way to fix it either.  Brock Stewart slips right into the back of our rotation, for instance.  (And most agree he wasn't offered with De Leon).  So it doesn't look like - at this time - the Dozier trade wasn't going to move the needle much on the rotation.  So you don't do it.  

I guess we'll find out if that's true about Deleon or not soon enough.

What it comes down to for me is the knowledge that whatever avenue we choose (trade, FA, draft) to improve our pitching, it comes with significant risk of losing value at the outset to gamble on upside.   So i'm not going to get hung up on that.

I'm guessing because the current front office doesn't think the starting pitching can be fixed by adding 1 iffy prospect, either. Particularly at the cost of your best everyday player.

i'm just responding to the above.....that they have plenty of prospects in AA/AAA, and only really need an ace.....and, I clearly said FA, didn't I? 

I'm guessing because the current front office doesn't think the starting pitching can be fixed by adding 1 iffy prospect, either. Particularly at the cost of your best everyday player.

I'm not advocating that DeLeon "fixes" it.  Just that he is the kind of upside gamble we have to take along with drafting guys.  And I'm especially keen on this gamble given the risks I see with retaining Dozier.

But ultimately DeLeon could bust, he's a unique prospect that has a long list of pros and a long list of cons.  He's going to be interesting to follow.  If he does turn into a James Shields type...then turning this down will have been a huge mistake.  If he busts, walking away was wise.  Time will tell.