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    Is It Time for the Twins to Shuffle the Coaching Staff?


    Ted Schwerzler

    The Minnesota Twins have come out of the gates for the 2024 MLB regular season in about the most lethargic way possible. While the pitching staff has been stout, the lineup has been every bit the problem it was a season ago. It’s time to rip the Band-Aid off and fix the hitting process.

    Image courtesy of © Jordan Johnson-USA TODAY Sports

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    When Derek Falvey and Thad Levine were hired to lead Minnesota’s front office instead of Terry Ryan, they were handed a holdover manager in Paul Molitor. It took two years for them to make their own hire instead, in the form of Rocco Baldelli, and he’s largely been a success story in terms of communication and results. Rudy Hernandez was a Molitor holdover, and while the front office has also brought in David Popkins and Derek Shomon to help out the hitters, the three-headed department now needs to be under a microscope.

    It was well-documented just how bad the Twins were a season ago when it came to hitting with runners in scoring position. Failing to push runs across the plate is why the team found themselves hovering around .500 at the midway point, and it wasn’t until the Cleveland Guardians completely fell off that the division tilted in Minnesota’s favor.

    Royce Lewis was eventually inserted into the Twins lineup, and so was hot-hitting rookie Matt Wallner. The production ticked upward, and Minnesota found themselves hosting postseason games and winning a series against the Toronto Blue Jays. Ultimately, though, the lineup could still be inconsistent, and the same problems have reared their head to start the 2024 season.

    Despite moving on from both Sonny Gray and Kenta Maeda in the starting rotation, and losing big names like Caleb Thielbar, Jhoan Durán, Justin Topa, and Josh Staumont from the bullpen, it hasn’t been the pitching that has scuffled out of the gate. With a lineup unable to score runs, failure to execute with runners in scoring position again, and an overall lack of execution, it’s time for the specialty coaches to come under fire.

    With Tyler Wells shelved after an elbow injury, the Baltimore Orioles called upon Albert Suárez to start the final game of a three-game series on Wednesday. Having not pitched in the majors since 2017, he nonetheless shoved against Minnesota. While he generated just four strikeouts in 5 1/3 innings, he got 14 whiffs on 75 pitches and his fastball was untouchable, as far as Twins batters were concerned.

    Preparation and process are the responsibilities of position coaches, and putting Minnesota in a spot where the lineup can execute is the chief role for Popkins, Hernandez, and Shomon. It may be a communication problem, in that the players simply aren’t grasping or working hard enough to implement what they're being told, but that doesn’t make the situation any better. If there is an inherent issue with process, we have seen enough results at this point to conclude something different is needed as well.

    It can’t continue to be on Lewis or some other hot rookie to prop up this lineup. The Twins' higher-paid, proven veteran talents need to produce. While Carlos Correa was among the best things going before his injury, Byron Buxton owns a 21/1 strikeout-to-walk ratio that would make Miguel Sanó blush. Ryan Jeffers has come on of late, but Edouard Julien has been slow to go, and Kyle Farmer has looked utterly worthless in his expanded role.

    Where the Twins turn from here, and if they hire someone with a greater level of experience remains to be seen. The hitting coach triumvirate is not the sole reason for the slow start, but continuing down this path and hoping the slog sorts itself out would be an insufficient way to address the start. It’s time to make a change, in an effort to keep this season from going entirely off the rails. What shape that change takes is up to the front office, but there has to be one.

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    32 minutes ago, KirbyDome89 said:

    "Total System Failure." I just feel like that's an awfully low bar to clear if we're talking about staying employed. 

    I think the development is questionable, particularly when it comes to arms. They've had some pretty bad whiffs at the top of the draft. They've certainly had their share of players on the active roster who hit FA (or worse get DFA'd) and draw little to no interest. Value is relative, but there are certainly players on the current 26 man who wouldn't yield a return worth talking about. None of the above are blips over an 8 year period either. 

    Sure, the expectation isn't 90 wins year over year. That's unrealistic. I'm asking whether this team is actually correcting (are they capable of doing so) or if they're content to stay their own path that's leading them off the road. You could've convinced me that 2021 was a crazy hop, but 2022 happened, then they played middling baseball through most of 2023 until a division where every other team threw in the towel and the softest schedule in baseball saved their a****, now it's deja vu to start this season. 

    Ahh... I thought it stood for Tofu Stir Fry. We had a Mongolian restaurant on the north end of town close down and Tofu Stir Fry was the reason why. 

    All teams have bad whiffs, All teams have unyieldable talent. Unyieldable probably isn't a word but it should be. 

    Here's the thing.

    I can't convince Chia Pet on how things should be done and Chia Pet can't convince Chief and Chief can't convince you and you can't convince me.

    Every single discussion point on Twinsdaily lacks consensus. Different viewpoints coming from different directions. If we can't all agree on the obvious path... what is the obvious path?  What chance does any front office have making friends. If they do what I think... Chia Pet isn't happy with them. If they do what Chia Pet thinks... I'm not happy. 

    I've just decided not to add to that impossible tangled pile. I'd rather argue with Chia Pet. It's much simpler that way. 

    13 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

    Ahh... I thought it stood for Tofu Stir Fry. We had a Mongolian restaurant on the north end of town close down and Tofu Stir Fry was the reason why. 

    All teams have bad whiffs, All teams have unyieldable talent. Unyieldable probably isn't a word but it should be. 

    Here's the thing.

    I can't convince Chia Pet on how things should be done and Chia Pet can't convince Chief and Chief can't convince you and you can't convince me.

    Every single discussion point on Twinsdaily lacks consensus. Different viewpoints coming from different directions. If we can't all agree on the obvious path... what is the obvious path?  What chance does any front office have making friends. If they do what I think... Chia Pet isn't happy with them. If they do what Chia Pet thinks... I'm not happy. 

    I've just decided not to add to that impossible tangled pile. I'd rather argue with Chia Pet. It's much simpler that way. 

    I think we can all agree tofu should be illegal with hefty fines and probably some jail time.

    #TeamProcess

    If you believe in your process, you don't think changing personnel after 17 bad games. Everyone wanted Popkins fired through about July last season, and then over the final 2-3 months, he got a lot of credit. Now 17 games later, he (and/or Hernandez, and/or Shomon). 

    Royce has been out since Day 1. 
    Julien's been Julien. 
    Wallner started with a sophomore slump. That's not unusual. 
    Kepler's been hurt pretty much since Day 1. 
    Now Correa, who started out very well, is hurt. 
    Jeffers is doing well. Kirilloff's been fine. 
    They've had very little time with Santana. 
    Castro turned back into Castro. 
    Polanco is gone. 

    Somehow there is a disconnect between the Twins results and the statistical data. The statistical data is that runs scored is strongly correlated with ISO (R^2 is close to 0.80) and that strike outs don’t matter (R^2 is small).  This reflects the Twins organization approach. We want power and K’s don’t matter. The last few years the Twins were close to the top in terms of runs scored as a result of HRs while leading the league in Ks.
     

    Yet for the Twins, they have a losing record when striking out more than 10x per game. This was discussed on the Twins radio pregame show last year. 

    13 minutes ago, Eris said:

    Somehow there is a disconnect between the Twins results and the statistical data. The statistical data is that runs scored is strongly correlated with ISO (R^2 is close to 0.80) and that strike outs don’t matter (R^2 is small).  This reflects the Twins organization approach. We want power and K’s don’t matter. The last few years the Twins were close to the top in terms of runs scored as a result of HRs while leading the league in Ks.
     

    Yet for the Twins, they have a losing record when striking out more than 10x per game. This was discussed on the Twins radio pregame show last year. 

    It's because strikeouts obviously do matter.  This is the problem, their entire philosophy relies on factually untrue things.  If strikeouts didn't matter the Twins would fill out their entire staff with cheap Carlos Silvas, yet their offensive philosophy pretends otherwise.  

    Baseball strategy is not simply about selecting one "right" formula and stubbornly sticking to it regardless of results.  You might need a different strategy given the score, the inning, how the game plays out, the opponent, the point in the season, the pitcher, the hitter, the weather, health, who's on the bench/in the pen, whatever.  

    12 hours ago, Seth Stohs said:

    #TeamProcess

    If you believe in your process, you don't think changing personnel after 17 bad games. Everyone wanted Popkins fired through about July last season, and then over the final 2-3 months, he got a lot of credit. Now 17 games later, he (and/or Hernandez, and/or Shomon). 

    Royce has been out since Day 1. 
    Julien's been Julien. 
    Wallner started with a sophomore slump. That's not unusual. 
    Kepler's been hurt pretty much since Day 1. 
    Now Correa, who started out very well, is hurt. 
    Jeffers is doing well. Kirilloff's been fine. 
    They've had very little time with Santana. 
    Castro turned back into Castro. 
    Polanco is gone. 

    It's not the personnel, it's all the strikeouts and stranding runners in scoring position. Even the guys who don't strike out too much are still striking out at career highs.

    They were bad for four months last year, were good for two months last year and now are bad the first month this year. If there's an outlier, it's the two good months. And those last two months had nothing to do with Popkins and everything to do with finally swapping out Gallo, Vazquez and Farmer for Wallner, Jeffers and Julien full time. But even while they played better in those two months, they were STILL striking out and stranding runners at an unacceptable pace.

    I'm not blaming Popkins, but only because I'm not sure who's idea it has been to get into so many 0-2 counts. It could be Baldelli, it could be Falvey, maybe TC the Bear. Whoever it is needs to reverse course and say, 'this isn't working' and go back to trying to hit like normal teams, even if it means taking fewer pitches.

    I have not idea but am willing to throw in my 2 cents. IMO everyone is swinging for the fences. (Kep, Bux, etc) Home Runs = $$$$. a 210 hitter with 25 HR's makes a lot more money than a 300 hitter with 6 HRs. (remember Sano) Along with that, everyone is now pounding the weights, trying to get stronger, thus more HR's and of course way more injuries. I dont recall the Twins os 60's-80's hurt all thetime like now. I was told by a hockey coach years ago to take it easy on the weights and go more for flexibility because of less likelyhood of injuries. But like I said, I dunno.

    On 4/18/2024 at 9:26 AM, chpettit19 said:

    These are FO philosophies. If the goal is to change the overall approach of the team you have to start at the top with the guys dictating the approach. A FO who believes in the current approach isn't going to hire people who preach a different approach.

    This is correct. Plus, you would need to assess whether the coaches and players can adjust to a new philosophy if the front office decides to make a change in philosophy. Some players were acquired because they fit the philosophy. Good coaches change the philosophy to fit the players.

    2 hours ago, Florida Flash said:

    I have not idea but am willing to throw in my 2 cents. IMO everyone is swinging for the fences. (Kep, Bux, etc) Home Runs = $$$$. a 210 hitter with 25 HR's makes a lot more money than a 300 hitter with 6 HRs. (remember Sano) Along with that, everyone is now pounding the weights, trying to get stronger, thus more HR's and of course way more injuries. I dont recall the Twins os 60's-80's hurt all thetime like now. I was told by a hockey coach years ago to take it easy on the weights and go more for flexibility because of less likelyhood of injuries. But like I said, I dunno.

    Unfortunately its not just the swing for the fences mentality that is hurting the game. The pitching mentality of you have to throw at 100 plus and have a 13-15k rate per nine that is harming it just as bad. The human body isn't able to do this over the long haul in the vast majority of people. The quality of the game has suffered. I spend just a fraction of the time watching that  I once did. I grew up watching 70's and 80's ball. A 4-3 game with well played D a HR mixed in and both teams combining for 10 K's was baseball. Yeah Nolan Ryan and Steve Carleton were exceptions. The game is suffering, and so are the Twins and the fans who grew up watching the real game of baseball.

    3 hours ago, nicksaviking said:

    I'm not blaming Popkins, but only because I'm not sure who's idea it has been to get into so many 0-2 counts. 

    This is another area where Falvey's offensive philosophy conflicts with itself.  The odds of hitting a HR on an 0-2 low are screamingly low, so if you wanted to build a philosophy solely to hit HRs you would want to avoid 0-2 counts like the plague.  For how much the sabermetrics guys flaunt math and statistics and studies a lot of these strategies are supported by none of it.  It's a philosophy that makes no logical sense and no statistical sense either.  And yet....

    This is not a team,80 percent of the homerun they have are solo.You only have to look at Julien all solo and triple that amount in SO.How many times have they started the inning with a double and was left there because of 2 SO and a pop-up.The organization is playing to the new generation of fans,all about the homerun.Its all baseballs problem.With players using PEDS in the 90s and then juicing the baseball.They needed to put the game clock on the pitcher and hitters years ago,but now they are stuck with a all or nothing game.




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