If Rocco Baldelli is Fired, Should Nelson Cruz Be the Twins Next Manager?

The last three and a half months of Twins fandom has felt like being forced to open a cursed Matryoshka doll. The first and largest doll is an inept offense. The next doll is a stubborn front office who won't part ways with players. The third doll is star players being injured or underperforming. So on and so forth. 

There has been a yin-and-yang nature about this Twins team all season. They will look competent against teams like the Royals and Athletics but then completely submit and get swept by teams like the Braves or Orioles. 

To quote pop icon, Olivia Rodrigo, "It's always one step forward and three steps back."

Consistently beating bad teams is a good thing, and it may be enough to win this year's AL Central crown, as the Twins have the easiest remaining strength of schedule for any team in baseball, but this team is something other than a real contender.

Although the Twins' chances of making the playoffs this year are favorable (75% on Fangraphs and 81.5% on Baseball Reference), it is evident that they cannot play at the same level as some of the best teams in the American League. 

Excuses and justifications have been and will continue to be made, but action needs to be taken by those in charge. And if the Twins miss the playoffs, that action must be extreme. Passivity will no longer do.

The great auteurist Wes Anderson once wrote, "You can't wake up if you don't fall asleep."

In my interpretation, this quote means that we, as people, cannot genuinely move on or accept something that has happened to us until we go through a genuine period of emotional mourning and acceptance. 

When applied to the 2023 Twins, Anderson's quote can be interpreted as if the Twins miss the playoffs this year, and they would need to sleep or reset if they ever want to wake up as an organization.

This idea has been nearly impossible for the Pohlad family to accept in years past, but with new executive chair Joe Pohlad at the helm, this upcoming off-season may be different. 

To genuinely pursue a sense of awakening, or progression, the first step Joe Pohlad would have to make is relieving President of Baseball Operations Derek Falvey, Manager Rocco Baldelli, and the Twins coaching staff of their duties.

At the moment, that feels like an unlikelihood, but in a recent interview with Star Tribune's Jim Souhan, Pohlad expressed a sense of urgency that has opened eyes amongst those who follow the Twins closely. 

If the Twins fail to win the lowly American League Central and miss the playoffs for the third season, would Pohlad fire Falvey? It feels unlikely, as Pohlad and Falvey appear to have incredible respect and an overall relationship with one another. Even so, the Twins would be forced to make organizational shake-ups, and the most logical shake-up would be to fire Baldelli. 

The firing of Baldelli would be a surprise that would feel like a scapegoating tactic, but change, even if symbolic, is better than blatant stagnation. If Baldelli got fired, who would be the best option to replace him?

A fascinating option is former Twins slugger Nelson Cruz.

Cruz, 43, was designated for assignment by the San Diego Padres on July 4 and eventually released. Despite allegedly drawing interest from teams around the league, Cruz's recent release may signify the end of his playing career. 

Despite Cruz's playing days destined to conclude very soon, that doesn't mean his involvement in Major League Baseball is ending. It may open up the door for a new chapter, his managerial chapter. 

During the past World Baseball Classic, Cruz served as the General Manager of the Dominican Republic World Baseball Classic Team. Cruz also played for the team serving as the primary designated hitter. 

Despite not managing the team in-game, Cruz was in a position of power, having to construct a team and make player-centric decisions, similar to the responsibilities a Major League manager is tasked with on a game-to-game basis. 

During his relatively brief time with Minnesota from 2019-2021, Cruz had a significant presence in the clubhouse, and many viewed him as the leader of the infamous 2019 Bomba Squad. Despite Jorge Alcala, Max Kepler, Jorge Polanco, and Byron Buxton being the last remaining members of the Bomba Squad, Cruz's impact has remained in Minnesota, and his return as a manager would be welcomed with open arms by both players and ownership. 

Also, the Twins have a robust Latino presence on their current team, with 16 members of the 40-man roster of Latino descent. Major League Baseball has the most substantial Latino presence it has ever had, yet there are only four Major League managers of Latino descent. By the end of the 2023 season, only one manager of Latino descent could be left in Alex Cora, as Oliver Marmol, Dave Martinez, and Pedro Grifol could be relieved of their duties due to poor team performance. 

Similarly to Black coaches in the National Football League, coaches of Latino descent deserve more opportunities in Major League Baseball. And Cruz is a coaching candidate of Latino descent that should be pursued if the Twins do, in fact, fire Baldelli. 

Do Former Players Perform Well as First-Time Managers?
This is an interesting question, as sometimes they do and sometimes they do not. Let's look at recent former players' who recently stepped away from playing in the MLB's first seasons as full-time managers:

• Craig Counsell, Brewers (2016): 73-89
• Dave Roberts, Dodgers (2016): 91-71
• Aaron Boone, Yankees (2018): 100-62
• Alex Cora, Red Sox (2018): 108-54 (WS Champions)
• Gabe Kapler, Phillies (2018): 80-82
• Rocco Baldelli, Twins (2019): 101-60
• David Ross, Cubs (2020): 34-26
• Mark Kotsay, Athletics (2022): 60-102
• Skip Schumaker, Marlins (2023): Currently 53-43

Five of the eight managers on this list had winning records in their first seasons, and Schumaker projects to have a winning record. A 62% success rate is nothing to overlook, but context is needed. Boone, Roberts, and Ross inherited above-average rosters with winning expectations, Cora cheated, and the juiced ball helped Baldelli and the 2019 Twins immensely. 

On the other hand, Kotsay, Kapler, and Counsell were handed lowly teams without a strong foundation or the expectation of winning. First-time managers, and managers in general, shouldn't be given too much praise or blame, as what happens on the field is largely out of their hands. Despite this being the case, managers do control the environment and overall culture their 26-man roster breeds.

For example, a huge reason why the Cardinals, who are 43-53, are struggling this year could be because their manager, Oliver Marmol, has created a toxic and aggressive environment. On the flip side, the Marlins, who are 53-45, are performing so well this year because Schumaker created an inclusive and welcoming environment where players tend to thrive. 

What would Cruz's expectations be?
It depends on if Pohlad decides to fire Falvey. If Falvey stays, fans can expect more of the same as the front office is the control center of the Twins organization, and Falvey's process won't change as long as he remains the President of Baseball Operations. The Twins will platoon, pinch-hit, be stubborn about keeping veterans to maintain depth, etc. 

If Pohlad fires Falvey, expectations for Cruz and a hypothetical new front become an open door.

The 2024 Twins team that Cruz would be inheriting compares most notably to the 2020 Cubs team that Ross inherited. 

The 2020 Cubs, who finished 34-26 in the COVID shortened 2020 season, were headlined by star players Kris Bryant, Javier Baez, Anthony Rizzo, Willson Contreras, Kyle Schwarber, Ian Happ, and frontline starting pitchers Yu Darvish and Kyle Hendricks finished first place in the NL Central before getting swept 2-0 by the Miami Marlins in the shortened three-game Wild Card round.

If fully actualized, the 2020 Cubs were on pace for an 88-74 record, and this Twins roster feels like an 88-win team. 

A core of Carlos Correa, Byron Buxton, Royce Lewis, Alex Kirilloff, Jorge Polanco, Jhoan Duran, Griffin Jax, Joe Ryan, Pablo López, Bailey Ober, with a blossoming Edouard Julien, and potential star in Brooks Lee is a roster that, if managed correctly, is capable of winning divisional titles and playoff games. 

Cruz has the qualities of a great manager. A voice that is heard and respected, the ability to create genuine and healthy relationships with players, and a strong presence within the clubhouse. Would he thrive in game theory and making decisions like when to pull a starting pitcher and which reliever to use? That is unknown. But Cruz has played professional baseball for 19 years and has been around the game for much longer. 

Taking chances on former players as first-time managers feels risky, but it has proven to be a success almost two-thirds of the time in recent history. 

If the Twins move on from Baldelli this off-season and Cruz elects to retire from playing, they should consider hiring Cruz as their next manager. 

What do you think? Should the Twins consider hiring Nelson Cruz if they fire Rocco Baldelli this upcoming off-season? Comment below.