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Like many mid-market teams, the Minnesota Twins face the perennial challenge of competing with the Yankees, Dodgers, and other big-spending franchises. Seeing how successful the other programs are, the temptation for Minnesota fans is often to chase established veterans in free agency to boost the roster, thinking it will make a difference. But there is a smarter path: maximize the value of homegrown players by giving them opportunities to flourish. They can do that, in turn, by investing in coaching and player development.
Teams like the Twins, Rays, and Guardians generate less local revenue from TV deals, ticket sales, and concessions than teams like the Dodgers, Mets, and Yankees. Even with revenue sharing, in which each team contributes 48% to a pool that is redistributed evenly throughout the league, the differences in income can be massive. By one estimate, 10 teams brought in more than $100 million more than the Twins did in 2024.
Therefore, it's unrealistic to hope that the Twins could consistently compete with the league's powerhouses in spending on external talent. The value of emphasizing homegrown talent is not theoretical; nor is it confined to small-market teams. Yes, the Brewers, Rays and Guardians benefit from doing it well, but so do the developmental juggernauts that are the Dodgers and Yankees.
The Twins are slowly figuring it out. In fact, halfway through the 2025 season, MLB Pipeline ranked the Twins second in farm system rankings, behind only the Dodgers. Alas, Minnesota's front office can’t seem to crack the code to winning. There is a more efficient version of the process that they can lean into to be successful in the fight for the postseason, but it requires more than smart spending. They have to plunge more resources into development and instruction, and use those resources better, too.
The Twins rely heavily on analytics to create the best teams they can. How does that translate to what is on the field?
At its core, the formula is simple. Every player’s financial cost is their average salary, plus any developmental costs. FanGraphs estimates the cost for 1 WAR on the free-agent market at around $8 million. A homegrown player earning $1-2 million and producing 3.0 WAR delivers far more efficiency than a $15-million veteran producing the same value. Coaching can be a multiplier, turning raw talent into tangible results by refining mechanics, improving decision-making, and building mental toughness.
The Cleveland Guardians provide a clear example. Low payrolls have not stopped them from producing All-Star talent. Take José Ramírez, a $50,000 international signee who became a perennial All-Star, and first-round pick Francisco Lindor, who amassed more than 28 WAR before being traded.
The Tampa Bay Rays take the concept even further, serving as the gold standard of “cheap WAR.” They drafted third baseman Evan Longoria, who went on to produce 51.8 WAR while with the Rays. Meanwhile, though, the Yankees can be just as good at the same things. They drafted and developed Aaron Judge, rather than plucking him away from some other club. They traded for and developed Luis Gil, the former Twins farmhand-turned-Rookie of the Year hurler. The Dodgers maintain such a robust farm system that they can trade for any player they want, and they take advantage of this regularly.
The reason these teams are each successful is they draft properly and have talent to pull from, but the Twins seem to have a hard time progressing like the others. The Twins have made progress with their in-house prospects, including players like Walker Jenkins, Royce Lewis, Emmanuel Rodriguez, and Bailey Ober. In 2024, 63% of the Twins WAR came from homegrown talent. But the Twins need to make an investment in how those players are grown on a consistent basis.
The math for coaching investment is compelling. One homegrown player producing three WAR generates roughly $24 million in market value. While the Twins’ cost is a $1.5 million salary plus development, that creates a surplus of $22.5 million, less whatever hours were poured into that player by coaches and staffers. Scaling up, improving the output of just 10 players by one WAR each translates to roughly $80 million in added value.
While costs are private outside of player contracts, the general investment in coaching infrastructure is around $20 million in the major leagues, a fraction of the potential return, making it one of the highest-leverage moves a team can make.
It is not just about coaching at the major-league level, but also at the minor-league level. Even highly regarded prospects have not come to the parent club looking as ready to help as fans hoped. Pitcher development has been inconsistent, and the Twins sometimes pay market prices for production that could be cultivated internally. Without deeper investment in coaching, Minnesota risks leaving WAR and payroll efficiency on the table.
The Twins minor leaguers also want to be ready to go up to the big-league level and not have to go back down, as Jenkins explained in an interview with Matthew Leach of MLB.com. If the Twins focus on solid development at every level, their output will continue to grow and look like their big-market competition.
The Twins need to prioritize coaching that strengthens a team atmosphere (incorporating mechanics, analytics, performance, and mental skills) at every level of the organization. They should build a development “stack” that ensures continuity from A-ball to the majors, and work with players to become good enough to offer extensions rather than go to arbitration.
While Derek Shelton certainly is bringing a change of culture to ensure players are developing at every level, he is not in charge of payroll. That's where his power and influence end.
Suppose the organization really wants to see a culture shift, as Shelton envisions. In that case, ownership has to get involved and help make the investments with the remaining $40 million for players, which is the amount left to spend of the $130 million they had available in 2025.
Finally, the front office should shift payroll focus: spend smarter, not necessarily more. By investing in coaching and development, the Twins can turn modest spending into elite results and compete sustainably in a mid-market environment.
This is not to say that the Twins have not already considered most of this, or that they aren't doing their best to become competitive with their own talent. What is the actual difference between the four organizations? Do the Twins not hire enough? Do the Twins not hire the right people? Unfortunately, measuring and finding great, transformative coaches can sometimes be as hard as finding and acquiring great players. Nonetheless, that's where the Twins might have their best chance to get an edge.
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