How the Twins Are Building a Matchup Machine

Cody, I appreciate the general nature of your OP, but what I strongly disagree with is the implementation of HOW the Twins have built the 2026 roster to achieve better matchup situations. 

Caratini was my IDEAL #2 catcher option. I just never expected the Twins to spend the $6-7M that it took to get him. I had thought someone like McCann for $3-4M was more likely. I honestly think, overall, catcher is stronger going in to 2026.

I like Bell. I actually like him quite a bit. I think there's gas still in the tank! But I like him at DH, with the ability to play a little 1B once in a while.

HERE is where I think the Twins have dropped the ball. Nathaniel Lowe is still sitting out there. He's not a GREAT player, but he's solid, and has been for most of his career. Even in a down 2025 he provided 44 XBH which included 18HR, and he still produced 84 RBI. Those would have been WELCOME numbers for the Twins in 2025. Further, he's at least a decent 1B. Even FURTHER, he's a LH hitter with SOLID career splits against LHP. Still sitting out there coming of a mediocre/poor '25 and only 30yo, might he be had for around $10M? Maybe even a 2yr deal? Take away Larnach's $4.5M, the Twins would only need to spend an additional $5.5M to bring him on board. 

Imagine a COMPETENT 1B with solid splits, solid career numbers including a solid career .771 OPS, and generally producing 45-50 XB power. Your entire lineup suddenly changes on the 75% against RHP:

1] Keaschall 

2] Buxton

3] Bell

4] Wallner

5] Lewis

6] Lowe

7] Jeffers/Caratini

8] Lee

9] Roden/Martin 

LF defense is vastly improved with Martin/Roden working some sort of combination there. And Roden is at least competent in CF to give Buxton a day off. Martin is a seldom used #3 option. And you've added a competent 1B option with a history of not only being available, but is solid against LHP. Bell and Caratini are switch hitters who's career split numbers are solid.

NOW you have, potentially, a pretty good lineup. And with a solid pair of switch hitters in Bell, and Caratini, PLUS a generally neutral hitting 1B, you've ACTUALLY achieved balance and depth, along with improved defense at TWO positions. 

Clemens...if he only replicates 2025...is a decent LH bat with power who can play 5 spots. (He needs to get back to playing some 3B just because). And the only real hole is the 13th spot of utility player. Right now, that's Gray or Kreidler. Gray appears to be able to hit .200. Kreidler not so much. Kreidler reportedly has a great glove at SS, and can play a quality CF. Great. But if he can't hit his way out of a paper bag, maybe Gray is the better option to begin 2026. But if that was the Twins biggest issue, position player wise, it's almost a non-issue.

Personally, I'd still be looking for a small deal, even a MILB deal, to look for a Newman, Punto type of deal and HOPING I might stumble on to  Castro type of acquisition for some 26yo who just needs a chance.

But removing Larnach by himself for a prospect, or combined with a decent prospect of our own for a solid, potential arm for the pen, simply allows the Twins to make ONE MORE MOVE that really changes the complexion of the team.

The math isn't hard. A rough $105M minus $5M gives the Twins $20M to spend to ONLY reach the ENDING 2025 payroll. And even that is about a $2-3M stretch. So you add Lowe for approximately $10M and add the defense, offense, and better balance I've mentioned. And you have the "luxury" of $10M left to spend on the bullpen. If Rogers was available for only $2M...that might be partially emotional...what might a couple decent, solid, RH options cost? What the Twins need is a solid, experienced arm or two to be a bridge. What if Hendricks, as an example, was healthy and wanting to prove himself again? LeClerc and Philips might be options. I have no idea of what's left on the market that might be smart additions on the temporary. But I do know nobody left is worth some $7M type deal.

BUT I DO KNOW that you SET a lineup that ACTUALLY MAKES SENSE with a $120M payroll.  And you HAVEN'T blocked ANY prospects from debuting at any time.

Falvey has a habit of pushing the payroll a bit. I don't always agree with his choices, but he does seem to have some "nudge' ability. I'd tell him to "nudge" the HELL out of Tom Pohlad for a $120M payroll, move Larnach for whatever in whatever scenario, SIGN Lowe, and grab the best 1 or 2 RHRP you can as bridge options.

This really isn't that hard if ownership will just agree to a slightly less payroll than they ended in 2025. It might even be an 85 or so win team.

On 1/20/2026 at 8:04 AM, Cody Christie said:

Against right-handed starters, Minnesota can stack lefties and switch hitters.
C: Caratini (S)
1B: Clemens (L)
2B: Julien (L)
3B: Lewis (R)
SS: Lee (S)
LF: Larnach (L)
CF: Buxton (R)
RF: Wallner (L)
DH: Bell (S)
The alignment above leaves Lewis and Byron Buxton as the lone right-handed bats.

Against left-handed starters, the picture flips.
C: Jeffers (R)
1B: Bell (S)
2B: Keaschall (R)
3B: Lewis (R)
SS: Lee (S)
LF: Martin (R)
CF: Buxton (R)
RF: Wallner (L)
DH: Caratini (S)
This gives the Twins a right-leaning core. Right field becomes the lone spot needing a lefty, with Wallner the apparent choice. There will also be injuries that arise, requiring the Twins to shift pieces around. None of this screams overwhelming talent. It does scream intention.

Ladies and Gentleman. Please welcome to the stage... the short side platooners,.. Ryan Jeffers, Luke Keaschall and Austin Martin. 

17 hours ago, stringer bell said:

I'm too cheap to subscribe to a source that would provide the information, but it is my belief that in general right handed hitters are far less vulnerable to same-side pitching than left handed hitters. Putting together a roster with a number of right handed regulars and a couple of switch hitters really shouldn't be bad the majority of time against right handers and would be decent vs. lefties. That is what the Twins have with as many as five "regular" right handed hitters and three switch hitters. Having a lefty hitter or two who could rest one of several of the regulars against RH starters would be ideal. The Twins could definitely use Clemens in that role if he hits like he did last year and Caratini could cover three positions as well. 

Back of the napkin estimates for playing time--Clemens 30 starts at first vs. RH pitching (Bell mostly to DH), 30 starts at second (Keaschall to bench), twenty assorted starts in outfield corners and third base. Caratini 60 starts behind the plate, Jeffers to DH vs. lefties, 30 starts at first base and perhaps a few DH starts. Roden 40 starts in left vs. RH pitching, 30 starts in center for Buxton rest days. Add in injuries and these guys would play even more. 

I've said it before, but barring injury I don't see a roster spot for Julien, Outman or Jackson despite all three being out of options and not much role for Larnach either.

2025 All Players on all teams:

LHH VS RHP: PA 65,309 - PBP .326 - SLG .421 - OPS .747

RHH VS LHP: PA 34,499 - OBP .316 - SLG .405 - OPS .721 

RHH VS RHP: PA 67,870 - OBP .308 - SLG .396 - OPS .703

LHH VS LHP: PA 15,248 PA - OBP .299 - SLG .365 - OPS .664

Staffing a roster ultimately comes down to individuals not the collective averages. Just get hitters who can hit period. However, From the above numbers we can make conclusions. 

1. RHH vs RHP is the most frequent combination in baseball. It is the 3rd most profitable. 

2. By adding the PA's on line 1 and line 3 together you get 133,179 plate appearances against right handed pitching. By adding the PA's on lines 2 and 4 together you get 49,747 plate appearances against left handers. add those numbers together and we have a total of 182,926 across the major leagues. From that league total it can be determined that LHP was on the mound for 27% of all PA's. This means 73% of all PA's were against RHP. 

This is where I ask everyone to do the math. You have 13 roster spots and 9 starting positions. Knowing that 73% of all pitching is Right handed. Using the averages posted above. What is the optimal allocation of right handed/left handed hitters on a roster?

If you have 13 left handed hitters. That's a .747 OPS 73% of the time and a .664 OPS 27% of the time. What will the total add up to?

If you have 13 right handed hitters. That's a .703 OPS 73% of the time and a .721 OPS 27% of the time. What will the total add up to?

You can only platoon 4 spots. What is the optimal allocation of right handed hitters and left handed hitters?

Does it make sense to focus on that .664 27% of the time? Can you focus on that .664 and not ignore the .747 73% of the time. 

By OPS... The Twins were 14th against left handers in 2025. 22nd in OPS against right handers. Is there correlation between the top OPS teams facing right handed pitching and top OPS teams in baseball. 

23 hours ago, stringer bell said:

Thanks for the research @Riverbrian. There's a lot to chew on and big numbers tend to take out anomalies. We can say that in general, left handed hitters have more severe platoon splits than right handers, so the best matchup is LHH vs. RHP and the worst is LHH vs. LHP. How to avoid the latter and maximize the former is what a manager gets paid to do. If you have a team of Shohei Ohtanis or Freddie Freemans you don't worry about it. You'd rather see Freeman or Ohtani up against any lefty than see Ryan Kreidler. So get the best hitters and play them as much as you can. It's the Matt Wallners and Trevor Larnachs that need to be paired with a different handed alternative, especially Larnach (.151 OPS difference last year, .174 lifetime) without being lashed to that player. Having alternates that can rest more than one guy (Kody Clemens, Victor Caratini) gives much more flexibility in getting good matchups.

Also, switch hitters always have the platoon advantage, but it is really worthless if they are lousy from one side. Last year Bell was dreadful against LHP, but his career OPS is a solid .751. Caratini had pretty neutral splits last year, but lifetime he's a better against RHP.

Finally, hitting isn't everything. A player who is a superior defender and base runner can make up for hitting deficiency. Austin Martin's play after the big selloff is an example. My hope is that he can save a run or two with his glove and add some value on the bases. I can't say that about Larnach or Wallner or several other players on the roster.  

How much attention should you give to 27%? Yes... Left Handed Hitters vs left handed hitters is the worst matchup for a hitter out of the 4 possibilities. Left Handed Hitters vs Right Handed pitching is the best matchup for a hitter out of the 4 possibilities and this matchup occurs 73% of the time. If you are playing matchups... Why wouldn't you want 9 left handed hitters in the lineup vs that 73%? I'm not saying that they should have 9 left handed hitters but if you are going to play the splits... isn't the 73% the right way to play the split. If you do the math. Just using the major league averages. 73% at .747 and 27% at .646 adds up to a bigger number than the right handers post at .703 73% and 721 27% of the time. Here are the numbers: The Left Handed hitter on average will hit .725 against both hands and the right handed hitter will hit .707 against both hands. 

Now it still comes down to the player. These are just averages. However... if you are going to play the split. PLAY THE SPLIT. Who hits right handed pitching... more of them on the roster please if you have to choose.  

The top ten teams in OPS in 2025 is the exact same top ten in team OPS vs Right handed pitchers and it's because of the 73%. Why should a team with 8 right handed hitters on the 26 man roster be searching for a right handed hitting outfielder like the Twins were doing the past three years? 

Detroit was 2nd against left handed pitching with a team .774 OPS. They were 21st with a .712 against right handers. This created a .729 overall. The 27% doesn't drive that needle through the roof because it's only 27%. 

On the other siide of that the Mets were 2nd against RHP with a .777. They had a .696 against LHP. That made up a .753  overall... the needle doesn't fall through the floor. 

Why does Wallner need to be platooned. 18-46-44 and 85 plate appearances vs lefties during the development years of age 24,25,26 and 27. He got to 85 after being starved for 2 years and his stats didn't produce a huge split differential? If you increase the sample size and the numbers go up...What was the purpose of only 108 plate appearances three years prior? Is Wallner better for it? Does it compromise his development? Does he have more trade value as a player who hits both hands or as a player that requires a 4 million dollar handcuff. Has the Twins organization really thought about the future trade value of Matt Wallner during his existence? Did it matter or was strip mining for parts the sensible thing to do... create enough value to trade him for a reliever down the road when the team goes into sell mode?

Was Kyle Schwarber a lefty killer in his early days? How do you become Kyle Schwarber? 

I'll stick my head in the lions mouth in regards to Larnach. 118 Plate appearances against lefties and his numbers got better. Yeah I get it... .600 OPS against lefties is well below average and everyone is dragging his body into the ditch at the moment but it appears that his number is higher with more AB's then it was with barely any AB's. I don't know... I'm just of the impression that exposure is helpful and I also assume that coaches do something? 

Both Wallner and Larnach had more AB's last year against left handed pitchers than they had in their entire career. It wasn't a disaster. The Twins were ranked 14th against left handed pitching. They were 22nd against right handed pitching. The Twins were absolutely willing to give Brooks Lee 487 AB's for a .655 OPS. Why were they willing to do that. They assume he will get better so you let him work through it. I don't have a problem with this... but if you are willing to Brooks Lee work through it for 487 AB's. What exactly is the damage done by .600 OPS vs left handers 27% of the time? Royce Lewis is allowed to OPS .671 for 376 AB's. That's OK... Royce can use these moments to get better... more comfortable... we will give him another a year of that if he needs it. It's OK... we will counter those two struggling by pinch hitting for Wallner in the 5th inning. 

I loved Solano he saved us from Gallo. However... while his splits were neutral his plate appearances were not. 254 AB's against Right Handers - 140 vs Left Handers. 

I hated Margot. 159 AB's against right handers - 156 vs Left Handers. So what exactly is the virtue of rostering a short side specialist. 

Are we going to keep spending 4 million for these guys... Are we going to Kill a developing Austin Martin and hold him to short side platoon duties. Maybe a 50-50 split like Margot put togethes. 

And one last consideration. Injuries. What happens when your right handed short sider gets hurt. Are the Twins now obligate or pot committed to call up Fedko instead of Erod because your right hander went down? Do you call up GG and make him a short sider to fill that role so Larnach doesn't have to hit left handers. If you don't call up Fedko... that guy you have been sheltering has got to face left handers all of sudden. Theoretically will a left handed hitter be more comfortable facing Chapman in the 9th inning in September or the playoffs with a decent number of AB's against left handers during the season or constant pinch hitting or bench time when the lefties are on the mound?  

I sound anti-platoon. I'm not totally... I've just become jaded watching the Twins make the platoon split the primary split in regards to playing time. 

All of this is budget related. All of things that they I type about over and over again are budget related. The Twins can't afford Joc Pederson and Randall Grichuk because it will leave no money left over to sign Pete Alonso. The only way they will be able to afford Pete Alonso is if they are able to develop a large number of young players making the minimum. We are not doing that. We took every developing left hander, strip mined them for parts and developed them to the point that they must be paired with Margot or Solono. The Twins will not become what we want them to become until they start giving young players full commitment to major league development. Lately... you only get that if you are right handed because of our strange fear of that 27%.