Home Run Hunting: Exploring Trade Prospects to Bolster the Minnesota Twins' Offense

Juan Soto
San Diego's superstar left fielder, Juan Soto, is the best potential trade candidate this offseason. The Padres have indicated they will look to get under the luxury tax, and Soto has one year of team control left and is projected to receive $33 million in his final year of arbitration, so trading him is a logical way for the Padres to shed payroll and stock their team for future seasons.

Soto is one of the best hitters in baseball and is on a hall-of-fame track at just 24 years old. He has a wRC+ of at least 143 every year of his career and, in his age-20 season, led the Nationals to a World Series. In 2023, he had an out-of-this-world 18.6% BB% and just 18.2% K%, and he hit 35 home runs. He would upgrade the Twins lineup in an almost unimaginable way.

A Soto deal would look like the 2020 Mookie Betts trade, where Boston received one year of a superstar in Betts and for the Dodgers' top prospect, Alex Verdugo, and two top 15 organizational prospects. If the Twins were to trade for Soto, Matt Wallner would be replaced and could serve as part of the package after a tremendous first year in the majors. 

Soto is estimated to be owed $33 million in 2024, his final year of arbitration, and any team trading for him would likely seek to extend him for around $500 million. They've surprised us before in recent years, but this makes the Twins unlikely suitors. But if they want to add one more massive contract, Soto would be well worth it. 

Pete Alonso
The Polar Bear is most known for his two Home Run Derby championships, but Pete Alonso is also a great hitter in games. 

Alonso can hit the ball out to all fields and has hit at least 37 home runs in every season of his career. He carries an above-average BB% at 9.9% for his career and a poor but not terrible 22.3% K%. His strikeout rate was up, and his batting average was down massively in 2023, which corresponds with a dip in his wRC+ to 121 from 141, but the batted ball data indicates he was still phenomenal, and the dips in result may be due to bad luck.

Publicly, the Mets' leadership stated he will be back in 2024, but that is at odds with indications that they may take a step back and continue building up their farm system. If the Twins add Alonso, it would certainly impact the future of Alex Kirilloff, whose offseason surgery news seems optimistic. Given Alonso is a step or two down from Soto as a hitter, is projected to be owed $22 million in 2023, and is at the bottom of the defensive spectrum, the trade cost wouldn't be too prohibitive. With the trade price of Alonso, an expensive extension feels less necessary, especially with him being a qualifying offer-eligible. 

Getting such a great hitter from the biggest-spending team in baseball feels unrealistic, but given the Mets' and the Twins' respective circumstances, it just might make sense. 

Anthony Santander
After the Orioles' abrupt end to a 101-win season, they will need to be players in the starting pitching market, and freeing up payroll to address the rotation with the harsh payroll constraints they've operated under historically could mean moving on from Santander's projected $12 million. Santander, a switch-hitting corner outfielder, has historically hit for enough power to be an above-average hitter despite an average BB% and below-average K%. Investing in Santander would likely mean that the Twins chose to trade Max Kepler. They could then put Matt Wallner in right field, where his cannon of an arm is better utilized, and Santander in left field. 

Santander has been more productive over the last few seasons than Kepler. He had a wRC+ above 119 every year- except in 2021. Kepler was poor in 2021 and 2022 before his massive bounce back in 2023. Looking into the small sample size of the postseason, Kepler carries a .505 OPS in his postseason career, while Santander stepped up with a .930 OPS in his first postseason appearances this season. Bringing in Santander and moving Kepler would provide Rocco Baldelli flexibility with a switch-hitter who also brings a superior offensive production track record.  

Chas McCormick
In 2023, Chas McCormick established himself as one of the best overall centerfielders in baseball, with a terrific 133 wRC+ and above-average defense. However, throughout the season, he fell in and out of favor with the organization, especially Dusty Baker. Baker appears to view his defense in centerfield as a problem and often left him out of the lineup or in left field. This seeming lack of faith could mean that another organization may view McCormick as more valuable than Houston, and he could be moved this winter. 

McCormick would provide elite Byron Buxton insurance and has shown he can play left field or right field solidly if Buxton is healthy. He strikes out a ton but was a great hitter in 2023, fueled by a .489 slugging percentage. McCormick would be a massive upgrade on Michael A. Taylor offensively and provide certainty in center field for the three seasons he's still under team control. Given his great bat (especially against lefties), solid defense at a premium position, and three years of team control, McCormick may be the most valuable trade piece in this article despite being one of the least well-known. However, if the Twins feel they cannot rely on Buxton, bringing him in would be sensible.

Upgrading the lineup will be a challenge, given all the homegrown talent the Twins have, but it should be a priority for this front office. Despite the payroll uncertainty, they have the chips to make a trade asset deal. Now is the time to make a big splash to build on the 2023 playoff run and push for a championship. Who would you like to see the Twins target in the trade market?