Giants 3, Twins 2: Twins No Match For Blake Snell, Faceplant Into All-Star Break

Box Score:
Starting Pitcher: Chris Paddack : 5 IP 5 H 2 R 1 ER 1 BB 6 K (90 Pitches, 59 Strikes, 65.5%)
Home Runs: None
Bottom 3 WPA: Jhoan Durán (-.368) Willi Castro (-.220), Brooks Lee (-.152)
Win Probability Chart (Via Fangraphs):

Fresh off a wild victory in game two of the series, the short-handed Twins entered Sunday's rubber match with a lot of discouragement for a team that had won six series in a row, with a chance for seven. José Miranda has turned into a lineup force but is on the IL now with back soreness. Byron Buxton is having an incredible resurgence, but is out for the second day in row with elbow soreness resulting from a crash into the center field wall at Oracle Park on Friday. Worst of all, news came out on Sunday that Carlos Correa now has plantar fasciitis in his other foot.

With Royce Lewis already on the IL, the Twins were left without their top four right-handed hitters going against reigning Cy Young winning lefty, Blake Snell. Snell got a late start to the year, as teams balked at his asking price. He has incredible stuff (last year's Cy was his second) featuring an electric change-up and curveball, but doesn't pitch deep into games and does not give in to hitters, preferring to walk them over throwing something hittable to get back into the count. His walk rate and overall efficiency suffer for this and teams were thus leery of investing 200M in him. The Giants ended up giving him a two year deal March 19th with an opt out after the first year and with no spring training, he has struggled, with a 7.85 ERA entering play and two IL stints.

The Twins stood no chance early on, as Snell was perfect through four innings. Twins hitters tried to sit on Snell's fastball, but the velocity on that pitch was in the 96-97 MPH range with good carry, and induced quite a few whiffs.

Opposing Snell was Chris Paddack making his second start since his IL stint for shoulder fatigue. His command looked decent early on but the velocity of his fastball sat in the 92 MPH range, dipping down to 89-90 MPH at various points. Hitters were able to be patient and lay off Paddack's change-up when thrown out of the zone.

The Twins defense was responsible for the first Giants run in the second inning. With one out, and on Michael Conforto on first, Matt Chapman rolled over on a pitch and grounded to shortstop Willi Castro. The feed and relay were crisp, but the usually solid Carlos Santana dropped the ball at first, allowing Chapman to reach. After a walk to Mike Yastrzemski, the ice cold Thairo Estrada jumped on a first pitch slider from Paddack and singled sharply to left, bringing home Chapman.

The Giants added another in the third. After Lamonte Wade Jr. crushed a one out double off an elevated change-up, Patrick Bailey jumped on the first pitch, another elevated change-up, and blooped a single to score Wade and double the lead. Outside of that, Paddack stayed out of the middle of the zone and was able to get enough weak contact to keep the Twins in the game.

Meanwhile Snell was on cruise control, keeping a low pitch count and not walking a single Twin. That part was surprising given Snell's track record, but he also did not allow an exit velocity over 100 MPH his entire outing, which is more on brand.

Also part of Snell's brand is a propensity to struggle the third time through a lineup (famously held against Snell in game six of the 2020 World Series), and Manuel Margot looped a single to left to lead off the seventh inning, ending Snell's chance at a perfecto. No rally ensured, however, as Willi Castro quickly grounded into a tailor-made double play.

The Twins went down quietly against reliever Tyler Rogers in the eighth, but the game changed in the ninth against flame-throwing closer Camilo Doval. New 40-man addition Diego Castillo led off with a walk, and pinch-hitter Trevor Larnach then roped a double down the right field line. Matt Wallner struck out, but Margot launched a ball into the left-center field gap to score both runs and tie the game.

The Good times would not last, however, as four pitches into Jhoan Duran's outing in the bottom of the ninth, Yastrzemski drove a ball into the gap that Margot dove on and missed, allowing Yastrzemski to reach third. Lee's throw to third was unnecessary and bad, ending up in the dugout and giving Yastrzemski another base, ending the game.

The Good:
-Paddack's command
-Jorge Alcala continues to excel in a fireman role, retiring Estrada with runners on second and third in the sixth.
-Margot hasn't been bad in quite a while, and woke everyone up with his double in the ninth.
 

The Bad:
-Paddack's velocity
-Steven Okert has had an up and down year, and today gave up a walk and a double to the two lefties he faced in the sixth.
-Brooks Lee was hitless in the series, had a bad at-bat with the go-ahead run on second in the ninth, and then made the error that lost the game in the bottom of the ninth. He's a rookie; it happens.

What’s Next: Willi Castro and (maybe) Carlos Correa represent the Twin at the All-Star game, held on Tuesday at Globe Life Field in Arlington, Texas. The Twins will get an extra day off and resume the season on Saturday at home against Milwaukee, The starters will presumably be Pablo Lopez (8-7, 5.11 ERA) facing Freddy Peralta (6-5, 4.11 ERA).

Postgame Interviews:

Bullpen Usage Chart: