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    Four Trade Packages That Actually Make Sense for Joe Ryan

    If the Twins decide to move their All-Star right-hander, these four deals offer the type of prospect haul that could reshape the organization's future.

    Cody Christie
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    Joe Ryan is exactly the type of player every contender covets at the MLB Trade Deadline. He has developed into one of the American League's most consistent starters, earning an All-Star selection while posting another sub-3.50 ERA season. Better yet, Ryan isn't a rental. He remains under team control through 2027, making him one of the most valuable starting pitchers who could realistically be available this summer.

    That's why his name continues to surface in trade speculation, even as the Twins insist they want to add rather than subtract. If Minnesota remains in the Wild Card race, Ryan isn't going anywhere. However, if the club falls out of contention over the next two weeks, the front office would have to at least listen. Pitchers with Ryan's production, durability, and affordable contract rarely become available, and the bidding would be fierce.

    Diamond Centric currently ranks Ryan as the third best trade deadline candidate behind Mason Miller and Tarik Skubal. There’s no guarantee that either of those arms gets moved, so Ryan could be the top player traded at the deadline. Here’s what Diamond Centric said about Ryan:

    Quote

    There’s no actual evidence that starting pitching becomes more important in the postseason than it is for the rest of the year, but that doesn’t stop teams from pining for starters who clear a certain bar for reliability and bat-missing capability. When he’s right, Ryan is that kind of starter. He’s tracking toward what would be his second straight All-Star appearance, and despite a minor elbow scare in early May, he’s taken the ball every turn through the rotation. He doesn’t throw as hard as many of the game’s elite starters, but he has two fastball shapes, multiple breaking balls, and sometimes a splitter that can devastate lefties. He’s always racked up great strikeout rates with his wide arsenal’s disparate movement, and he’s so good at inducing chases that he rarely walks people. So far this year, he’s also toned down what was his bugaboo in the past: giving up too many homers. It hasn’t been enough to truly keep the rebuilding-on-the-go Twins afloat, though, and everyone involved knows the team would prefer to maximize the value they get from him by trading him this summer, rather than waiting until the winter (when teams will cough up much less) or next summer (by which point they’ll have had to pay him another several million dollars). Ryan’s career has followed an unfortunate pattern whereby he often peters out a bit in the second half, but if he holds up well through the All-Star break, he’ll be one of the hottest names on the rumor mill on the other side of it.

    Not every contender has the prospect capital to make a competitive offer. Some farm systems simply can't match Ryan's value, while others line up almost perfectly with what Minnesota should seek in return. Instead of focusing only on potential destinations, these are four realistic trade packages that could make sense for both sides if the Twins ultimately decide to move one of their biggest stars.

    New York Yankees

    Twins fans would hate this, but the Yankees are never shy about making aggressive moves when they believe another World Series run is within reach. With questions surrounding their rotation and several key injuries throughout the roster, adding an All-Star starter like Joe Ryan would immediately become one of the biggest deadline upgrades available.

    New York also has one of the deepest farm systems among contenders. If the Twins are going to move Ryan, they need impact talent at the top of the return, and that conversation should start with George Lombard Jr. The 21-year-old has developed into one of baseball's better infield prospects and is close enough to the majors to envision him helping Minnesota as early as next season.

    To make the value work, the Yankees could pair Lombard with left-hander Elmer Rodríguez, another upper-level prospect with mid-rotation upside. Minnesota would land a potential everyday infielder and another young arm capable of joining its next competitive core. That's the type of package it should demand for a pitcher with Ryan's résumé and another season of club control.

    Seattle Mariners

    Few organizations can match Seattle's collection of young talent, which makes the Mariners an intriguing trade partner. If Seattle wants to maximize its current championship window, it may need to trade from an area of strength. Ryan would slide into the front of the rotation immediately and give the Mariners another proven arm for multiple postseason runs.

    The return starts with Kade Anderson, one of the top pitching prospects in baseball. His combination of stuff, command, and projection gives him legitimate top-of-the-rotation potential. Pairing him with infielder Michael Arroyo would give Minnesota another consensus top 100 prospect who is already knocking on the door of the upper minors. Arroyo's advanced approach at the plate and offensive upside would add another potential impact bat to an organization that has prioritized position-player depth.

    This proposal offers the Twins the best of both worlds: a potential frontline starter and an advanced middle infielder with everyday upside. Premium starting pitching is one of the hardest assets to acquire, and adding a player like Arroyo gives Minnesota an impact position player who could arrive in the big leagues on a similar timeline as the club's next wave of prospects.

    Los Angeles Dodgers

    The Dodgers seem to find themselves connected to every impact player at the trade deadline, and Ryan would fit their model perfectly, especially with his California roots. Los Angeles doesn't need another back-end starter, it needs someone capable of starting Game 2 or Game 3 in a postseason series.

    Unlike Seattle, the Dodgers' strength is position-player talent. Their system is loaded with athletic outfielders who may eventually struggle to find opportunities in Los Angeles because of the organization's major league depth.

    Mike Sirota and Eduardo Quintero would be an appealing combination for Minnesota. Good news for Twins fans is that both players are right-handed to add to the team’s left-handed heavy prospect list. Sirota brings impact power and athleticism, while Quintero has quietly developed into one of the organization's better all-around offensive prospects. Together, they would give the Twins two legitimate everyday position-player candidates without sacrificing years of team control.

    The Dodgers have repeatedly shown they're willing to move prospects for proven major league talent. If Ryan becomes available, this feels like the type of deal Andrew Friedman would seriously explore.

    San Diego Padres

    If one team is going to be part of a blockbuster, it might be San Diego. The Padres have spent the last several seasons chasing another deep postseason run, but injuries have once again exposed their rotation depth. Ryan would immediately become one of the club's most dependable starters while remaining under control beyond this season.

    San Diego’s farm system is depleted after multiple years of blockbuster trades. Any conversation between Minnesota and San Diego would likely begin with Ethan Salas, San Diego’s lone top 100 prospect. Despite an up-and-down development path, Salas remains one of baseball's premier catching prospects and possesses the type of ceiling organizations rarely make available.

    To match Ryan's value, the Padres could include left-hander Kruz Schoolcraft, a towering pitching prospect with frontline upside if everything clicks. Minnesota would walk away with a potential big-league catcher and another premium arm, giving the organization impact talent at two premium positions. However, Minnesota spent its first two draft picks on catchers last week, so the Padres might not have the prospect capital to make this trade. 

    The Twins aren't actively shopping Ryan (yet), nor should they be. A pitcher with his combination of production, durability, and affordable team control is exactly the type of player every organization hopes to build around. If Minnesota stays in the playoff race, keeping Ryan gives the club its best chance to compete this season and next.

    However, every player has a price. If the Twins find themselves slipping out of contention before the deadline, Ryan instantly becomes one of the most valuable starting pitchers available. That means the return can't be centered around organizational depth or lottery-ticket prospects. Minnesota should be targeting players who project as future everyday contributors or impact starters. The types of prospects capable of becoming foundational pieces for the next winning core.

    Whether it's Lombard Jr., Anderson, Salas, or another elite prospect, the Twins would only have one opportunity to maximize Ryan's value. If they're willing to make that move, the return needs to be significant enough that fans look back in three or four years and understand exactly why the organization pulled the trigger.


    Which package is the best fit for the Twins? Leave a comment and start the discussion.

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    19 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

    I mean, if we know the prospects won't turn out ahead of time, of course we aren't making the trade. I'm not sure your point?

    Every decision involves risk, the question is, knowing what you know now about this year and next, and beyond, what to do. Ryan could get hurt. He could return another Ryan who pitches in Minnesota for five or more years? 

    They did work out though, that's my point. For guys of their prospect caliber, both reaching the majors for more than a cup of coffee across multiple seasons is a better than 50th percentile outcome. Prospects are fun to dream on, but outside the concensus top 10 or so most of them are going to turn out this way, especially in the 75-200 range where they were. Like I said, if the Mariners want to do something insane and send us the literal best pitching prospect in baseball who is also the global #1 on at least one major list, by all means let them. But if you focus on the kinds of less fun names that would actually be attainable in a Ryan trade suddenly it starts to look a lot less appealing and another Martin/SWR type of return starts to feel like a plausible result. 

    18 hours ago, ashbury said:

    The comparison to Berrios may be apt. And, like you, I expect that Anderson is not available for any conceivable trade package (the OOTP AI certainly doesn't lead me to believe he would be). 

    But, there is no rule that says we must do like we did with Berrios and receive two prospects in return.  What if the Twins were the team offering the package?  Maybe a slightly lower pitching prospect like Ryan Sloan could be attainable, if Joe Ryan were the headliner and a significant prospect was included as well?  I don't know what it would take - Ryan plus Emma Rodriguez, in return for Sloan plus a lesser piece?

    We have so many outfielders seemingly coming of age at around the same time.  There isn't room in one major league outfield for all of them.  I refuse to believe we can't make use of some of them to swing a really interesting deal.  No, we can't simply trade 5 corner outfield bats for one good pitcher, but one trade at a time seems like we could upgrade our ceilings.

    Like I keep cautioning myself, I have probably played too many hours of OOTP during the past 20 years.

     

    That would certainly be one way to do it, and probably a way I'd be more supportive of. And to be clear I'm not trying to be a bummer here with my original comment. I just think people are vastly overrating how good the median outcome will be for the return we'd get for Ryan. Of course there's always a chance we get our next star because that's true in any trade (look no further than Cruz for Ryan) but on the whole that's probably not a likely outcome in the same way it's unlikely that Seattle wants to give us the best pitching prospect in baseball in exchange for a pitcher with lesser stuff and less team control.

    Where I'm at is that Joe Ryan is a really good and desirable player, but we're probably not going to get a kings ransom for him so why not just keep the really good desirable player and try to be a good team? And if someone wants to wildly overpay and send us a potential future Cy Young candidate let them, but short of that why not just keep the All Star?

    1 hour ago, HeresWaldo said:

    That would certainly be one way to do it, and probably a way I'd be more supportive of. And to be clear I'm not trying to be a bummer here with my original comment. I just think people are vastly overrating how good the median outcome will be for the return we'd get for Ryan. Of course there's always a chance we get our next star because that's true in any trade (look no further than Cruz for Ryan) but on the whole that's probably not a likely outcome in the same way it's unlikely that Seattle wants to give us the best pitching prospect in baseball in exchange for a pitcher with lesser stuff and less team control.

    Where I'm at is that Joe Ryan is a really good and desirable player, but we're probably not going to get a kings ransom for him so why not just keep the really good desirable player and try to be a good team? And if someone wants to wildly overpay and send us a potential future Cy Young candidate let them, but short of that why not just keep the All Star?

    Because the chances of keeping that "really good desirable player" after next season is somewhere between 0 and 5%. And basic asset management tells us to get 2 different assets that they have 100% chance of keeping beyond next season. Especially because the odds of next season being dramatically better than this one are about the same as the odds the Twins keep Ryan beyond 2027.

    The question isn't at all whether the 2 prospects are likely to turn out as well as Ryan, it is whether or not having those 2 prospects is better than having 1 possible comp pick. Unless you're here to make the argument that the Twins should be going all in on 2027, you need to acknowledge the realities of the chances the Twins actually keep Ryan.

    For context, Dan Hayes has reported his requested deal last offseason was 7 years, 210 million. Very likely significantly above market value in years and total money. They agreed to a mutual option for next year last offseason. They've already discussed his future with the team. And he isn't signed. The Twins aren't likely to keep Joe Ryan. Most everyone here would prefer Joe being extended for another 4 years or so. But that isn't going to happen. So, the 2 prospects are pretty easily the better option, in many of our opinions.

    11 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

    Because the chances of keeping that "really good desirable player" after next season is somewhere between 0 and 5%. And basic asset management tells us to get 2 different assets that they have 100% chance of keeping beyond next season. Especially because the odds of next season being dramatically better than this one are about the same as the odds the Twins keep Ryan beyond 2027.

    The question isn't at all whether the 2 prospects are likely to turn out as well as Ryan, it is whether or not having those 2 prospects is better than having 1 possible comp pick. Unless you're here to make the argument that the Twins should be going all in on 2027, you need to acknowledge the realities of the chances the Twins actually keep Ryan.

    For context, Dan Hayes has reported his requested deal last offseason was 7 years, 210 million. Very likely significantly above market value in years and total money. They agreed to a mutual option for next year last offseason. They've already discussed his future with the team. And he isn't signed. The Twins aren't likely to keep Joe Ryan. Most everyone here would prefer Joe being extended for another 4 years or so. But that isn't going to happen. So, the 2 prospects are pretty easily the better option, in many of our opinions.

    Certainly fair to say that's how a lot of front offices now think. My problem with that approach though is if you follow that line of thinking you'll always end up focused on the future and never be able to justify trying in the now. Any good veteran major leaguer can by definition return more years of future asset control with theoretically similar or higher ceilings, but personally that doesn't interest me as much as just having a good team. Look at the Rays. They're the model franchise and they always maximize asset value. And yet they have managed zero championships with this approach. And honestly I'm fine with that because I'm not into Rings Culture, but they're also not drawing fans to the park during the regular season because they trade away every player fans fall in love with, and I think that's a huge problem. Personally I'm of the opinion that it's okay to try building something even if it means taking on some current and future risk.

    3 minutes ago, HeresWaldo said:

    Certainly fair to say that's how a lot of front offices now think. My problem with that approach though is if you follow that line of thinking you'll always end up focused on the future and never be able to justify trying in the now. Any good veteran major leaguer can by definition return more years of future asset control with theoretically similar or higher ceilings, but personally that doesn't interest me as much as just having a good team. Look at the Rays. They're the model franchise and they always maximize asset value. And yet they have managed zero championships with this approach. And honestly I'm fine with that because I'm not into Rings Culture, but they're also not drawing fans to the park during the regular season because they trade away every player fans fall in love with, and I think that's a huge problem. Personally I'm of the opinion that it's okay to try building something even if it means taking on some current and future risk.

    Not true. There are times to go all in. Tampa never goes all in, and had a very low payroll. They are great at what they do, but they never try to get over the hump. 

    I think stating that a front office always does the same thing, regardless of context, just isn't true, other than Tampa. 

    2 hours ago, HeresWaldo said:

    Certainly fair to say that's how a lot of front offices now think. My problem with that approach though is if you follow that line of thinking you'll always end up focused on the future and never be able to justify trying in the now. Any good veteran major leaguer can by definition return more years of future asset control with theoretically similar or higher ceilings, but personally that doesn't interest me as much as just having a good team. Look at the Rays. They're the model franchise and they always maximize asset value. And yet they have managed zero championships with this approach. And honestly I'm fine with that because I'm not into Rings Culture, but they're also not drawing fans to the park during the regular season because they trade away every player fans fall in love with, and I think that's a huge problem. Personally I'm of the opinion that it's okay to try building something even if it means taking on some current and future risk.

    There's many lines of thinking that teams should have depending on the state of their roster. We're talking about the 2026 and 2027 Twins with relation to Joe Ryan.

    I was all for adding when they were good. I didn't have any problem with the Mahle/Lopez deadline. But this team isn't that. The line of thinking is to take inventory of what your team is and what they're likely to be while Joe Ryan is under contract. Decide how realistic it is that you can even be a .500 team before he leaves for a comp pick at best and make moves based on that.

    I'm not advocating always selling every veteran before they leave in free agency. I'm advocating trading veterans on a below .500 team so they can improve their chances of being a team worthy of investing in.

    Extend Ryan if you can. They talked about it last offseason and couldn't. This team isn't even .500. Has been for 1 day since they were 12-12. That changes the line of thinking. There can't be a stagnant line of thinking. It must adapt to the situation. And its hard to argue the 2026 and 2027 Twins are teams worth chasing "the now" for.

    27 minutes ago, mluebker said:

    How about keep him and build around him, instead of rebooting the rotation and roster every year? Build on strengths, or has that idea gone out of style?

    Sure. But it will cost 25-30 million a year for six years, past age 35..... Seems unlikely they'll do that. 

    On 7/25/2026 at 10:23 AM, LambchoP said:

    Love the SEA trade. If we trade Ryan, we need controllable, high upside pitching in return. I also wouldn't mind keeping him. SEA is open to trading young controllable SP Hancock apparently. If we can get him for Jeffers and/or Larnach it'd be great. Imagine a 2027 rotation of 

    Lopez

    Ryan

    Bradley

    Hancock

    Abel

    Not bad at all. Then a bullpen of Gomez, Morris, Mathews, Festa. It's a good start.

    Seattle has, even in a very down year, Cal Raleigh …….. zero interest in Jeffers for 2 months……..to me, they have only interest in OFFENSIVE HELP!

    Larnach can help anybody if they are truly on the cusp.

    Rotation next year is Bradley - Ryan - Lopez - Abel (assuming health) with either Rojas or Prielipp …….. PEN still has the 4 guys you mentioned. They also give Jeffers the QO and keep the 3rd best hitter on the Club, Larnach.

    Trades at the deadline or in off-season have to strengthen what opportunity you have now or in the very near future. Seems to me that with Abel - Prielipp - Rojas - Matthews - Ober, Team should have the 4 & 5 slots for next year covered.

    Find a reliever in the next 10 days by trading Bell - Wallner - Caratini - Roden in some combination.

    Extend Alex Jackson! He’d sign for 2 more years at $2,6M/year. He helps greatly with the bridge to Lackey &/or Tinney.

    1 hour ago, Mike Sixel said:

    Sure. But it will cost 25-30 million a year for six years, past age 35..... Seems unlikely they'll do that. 

    If there’s a $140M floor for Team spending after labor/ownership bargaining & Pablo is gone after ‘27 ……… Correa’s off the books after next year as well ……. that’s $32M available starting in ‘28 that isn’t available now. ……… I keep Jeffers and give him the QO to consider. …….. trade Caratini & Bell now while value is near this season’s peak. Both veterans and both switch hitters…… Caratini is under control through ‘27.

    I’d extend A. Jackson for two years at $5-$5.5M total.

    Lots can change this winter ……. more things to consider than just a lockout.




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