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    Finding A Jolt For The Bullpen


    Ted Schwerzler

    Coming into 2017, the Minnesota Twins biggest question mark was their pitching staff. After being at the bottom of the big leagues last year, Minnesota needed a turnaround to return to competitiveness. They've seen a good enough start through the first 30 games or so, with the Twins own the ninth best starting ERA in MLB. the bullpen, however, is still a cause for concern.

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    Through their first 120 innings pitches, Minnesota checks in with the 23rd best relief ERA in MLB (4.73). The 7.43 K/9 ranks 28th out of 30 big league teams and the 3.75 BB/9 checks out in the middle of the pack. Largely unaddressed this offseason (Matt Belisle being the only signing of note), the goal should be to address the bullpen before it goes off the rails.

    Looking at what's out there, you can see some definite pieces. Brandon Kintzler is a solid reliever, even if his "stuff" remains questionable for working as a closer. Taylor Rogers fits, and Tyler Duffey looks like a real weapon. I still believe Ryan Pressly is more than his funk suggests, and Justin Haley being carried makes sense. That leaves both Matt Belisle and Craig Breslow, and you have to wonder if Minnesota isn't in a position to push for more on their own being promoted.

    Triple-A Rochester has some intriguing arms worthy of a shot. Adding Drew Rucinski to the 40-man roster for a brief call up was confusing, if only because there were other options. Trevor Hildenberger, D.J. Baxendale, Aaron Slegers, and even Jason Wheeler could all use a look. If we're really trying to push the envelop though, Double-A is where the Twins greatest assets lie.

    Both Mason Melotakis and Nick Burdi have been lights out to start 2017. Melotakis owns a 1.17 ERA across 15.1 IP. The 25-year-old southpaw has compiled a 7.0 K/9 while offering free passes at a rate of 2.3 BB/9. The former second-round pick has been at Double-A since 2014, albeit missing the 2015 season. He's compiled just under 50.0 IP across the last two years and he's shown an ability to strike batters out, while reducing the walks in 2017.

    Another second-round pick, Burdi has come out with guns blazing this season as well. The 24-year-old right-hander can push his fastball into triple digits, and seeing him healthy after throwing just three innings last year is a major plus. Across 13.2 IP this season, he's struck out 11.9 per nine innings, and he's walking batters at a very strong 2.6 BB/9. While command has always been Burdi's shortcoming, it's something he seems to have honed in this campaign.

    I have no idea whether or not the Twins would promote either arm straight from Double-A, but I would lean towards them not doing so. Both have velocity and wanting to see them pitch, more than just throw, at the next level might be worth a stop in Triple-A. Neither guy is going to be able to rely solely on speed at the big league level, and seeing evidence they could get big league hitters out is a must.

    Regardless of how they get to the Target Field bullpen, both Melotakis and Burdi could be there by early summer. I'd expect at least a brief stop for both in Triple-A, but guys like Breslow, or even Adam Wilk, shouldn't stand in their way. Unlike a starting prospect, relievers don't necessarily need a long stay at the highest level of the farm system; give them a taste and move them on. J.T. Chargois put forth just 12.1 IP in AAA after 11.2 IP at AA prior to his promotion last year. A similar path could be had for both of these guys.

    When they arrive, there's little reason to suggest it wouldn't be an immediate boost to the bullpen. Throw in a healthy J.T. Chargois or Jake Reed, and maybe a flier on one of those other names, and Minnesota will have reworked their relief corps from within.

    Right now, there are some question marks as to how it will come together, and which guys can get healthy, but what Minnesota doesn't have in starting options, they have in relief. Both Burdi and Melotakis can lead the charge and let the dice fall as they may.

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    The good news is we have options. We could probably get Neshek in trade too. I just hope the front office takes some positive action soon and stops dickering around with retreads. If were contenders then Haley, Wilk need to go and we need bbetter results from Pressley too. Id have to check but i think most of Belisle crap is from a few really bad outings. He may need to go soon too. We can easily remake the pen and results matter.

     

    What I don't understand is how we cannot find one reliever that can be optioned/DFAd to allow for a rotation of some of our AAA/AA RP prospects.  I get Molitor not trusting them, but I've got to think there's enough talent in the minors to do the "see what sticks" methodology... Between Burdi, Melotakis, Bard, and Hildenberger, there are plenty of guys who can get a two to four week extended look who you can keep up if they are doing well.  I get that some are 40 man adds, and so preference would go to the guys already on the 40 for now, but this is something I'd have to think they can do.

    Agreed!

     

    I can buy an argument for a particular pitcher to stay at his current level, working on something specific with the coach there, etc.

     

    But the Twins aren't promoting anyone worthwhile for the pen, anywhere.  The only mildly interesting bullpen guy to switch levels so far this season is Nik Turley, from AA to AAA, and he's almost 28 years old.

     

    Meanwhile, stuck in AA, we have Melotakis and Rosario, both on 40-man, in their second option years.  Plus Burdi, Bard, Van Steensel, and Curtiss, all of whom would need 40-man protection after the season.  Same for Hildenberger at AAA.

     

    All while Rucinski, Tepesch, and Wilk have been added to the 40-man and given MLB innings.

    Agreed!

     

    I can buy an argument for a particular pitcher to stay at his current level, working on something specific with the coach there, etc.

     

    But the Twins aren't promoting anyone worthwhile for the pen, anywhere. The only mildly interesting bullpen guy to switch levels so far this season is Nik Turley, from AA to AAA, and he's almost 28 years old.

     

    Meanwhile, stuck in AA, we have Melotakis and Rosario, both on 40-man, in their second option years. Plus Burdi, Bard, Van Steensel, and Curtiss, all of whom would need 40-man protection after the season. Same for Hildenberger at AAA.

     

    All while Rucinski, Tepesch, and Wilk have been added to the 40-man and given MLB innings.

    And they just sent Turley BACK to AA. I'm sorry, But I see zero justification for that action. If there are too many pitchers at AAA, get rid of some of them. Wimmers can go. Rucinski can go. Wilk was never needed. I'm not sure Chapman will prove worthy of a spot either, but am willing to give him a look. There is certainly nothing special about Tepesch, Slegers, Wheeler or Hurlbut. I'm certainly not suggesting letting them all go, but it's Falvey's job to evaluate these guys and construct the rosters accordingly. IMO there is too much flotsam at AAA standing in the way of the development of pieces that could potentially help at the MLB level. It's not just roster spots, it's opportunities to pitch that are being missed because the manager has to try to juggle 15 pitchers. Maybe Falvey will promote pitchers from AA. The Twins certainly don't have recent history of doing so. Did the Indians under Falvey? I honestly do not know.

    I found this quote - "Double-A: The entrance to the “upper minors,” the jump to Double-A tends to be the most difficult for prospects, and tells us the most about them.

    The Double-A level is where hitters and pitchers begin to have a plan. This is where pitchers can’t get by without a decent off-speed pitch and the hitters who can’t hit them are exposed. The competition is good, as evidenced by the fact that we see players jump from Double-A to the majors with relative frequency. Each organization has its own philosophy on doing so, but it does happen often because of the advanced level of competition. There aren’t as many players in Double-A with major league experience as there are in Triple-A, but one could argue that the pure talent level is actually higher because players are heading in an upward direction as opposed to the stagnation that tends to take place with some Triple-A players." http://www.hardballtimes.com/understanding-minor-league-levels/

     

    I believe that the really good players do not have to spend time in AAA.  Remember how Kelly talked about AA back in his years.  This was his real proving ground and AAA was what filled out the roster. 

     

    For me, the relief pitchers do not need AAA, they need to move to the majors.  Unlike starters, they only need two pitches and if they have them we should use the live arms in MLB. 

    As I have said before, I am of the school of thought that believes there is some value in making a stop at AAA, even if it's a short one.  I certainly accept and acknowledge that there are those who disagree.  

     

    But what is relevant is the school of thought of the guy in charge.  We just don't know yet.  Unless someone really wants to go through the Indians' pitching prospects over the last few years and see how many, if any, skipped AAA on the way up.  Current Indians closer Cody Allen did not.  He threw less than 20 innings in high A and AA combined, but more than 30 at AAA.  Perhaps that is an indication of his school of thought - because it took place right as Falvey took over, especially for high power college arms.

     

    What we DO know is that the TWINS have NOT done so.  Not recently anyway.  Not with pitchers.  Seth mentioned Jose Mijares.  But Mijares did have a brief stint in AAA before being sent back down.  Only after getting hurt and then healthy was he a September call up direct from the end of the AA season. And as much as it was to help, I think it was about getting him more innings.

     

    No one has mentioned anyone else and I can't think of any off the top of my head since Eric Milton, almost 20 years ago.

     

    My point is that I don't see the Twins calling up Burdi (or any other pitcher) from AA.   All the more reason to jettison some of the flotsam at AAA to make room for Burdi, et al.

     

    A recent update on Mason Melotakis. He's given up the lead in his last three appearances for Chattanooga. http://twinsdaily.com/topic/25687-mason-melotakis-2017/

     

    Two homeruns allowed today, including a grand slam to the first guy he faced.  The second HR was to a left handed hitter, that's a stunner.  That's the first HR he's allowed to a LHB since he's been at AA - which would be since 2014.  Yoiks and away.  

     

    His k/9 rate has been low all season, perhaps a sign of diminished stuff. Not always easy to rebound from serious injury.

    It hasn't been though.  It's been inconsistent.

     

    check the game logs

     

    After 5 outings, his K per 9 was 10.8.  Then he went 6 IP over 5 games without any K.  Since then, 7 K in 4 1/3 IP, but that stretch also has seen him give up 5 of the 10 hits he's allowed this season, 4 of the 5 walks and both HR.

     

    So, you say you wanna be a scout?  Analyze that.

     

    So, will the real Mason Melotakis, please stand up?

     

    Who knows, maybe inconsistent is just what he is now.

    This is very much a "Devil's Advocate" argument. Its April 1, and one is forecasting the Twins in 2017. If one "guessed" what the record would be by May 17th, I doubt anyone would reasonable guess much above .400, which would put them 2 games behind KC and a predictable 6.5 games out of first.

     

    Under this scenario, why would one want to invest $10 million in relief pitchers that might increase one's win loss by maybe 2 irrelevant games? Write off the season and allow those power arms to further distinguish themselves.

     

    Now two unforeseen things have happened. One is that the Twins are winning (a lot) more games than expected and, more surprisingly, the Cleveland Baseball team is losing more than expected.

     

    These are both surprising outcomes, and, had a crystal ball had told Falvey they would have been in this situation at this time, I am guessing they would have made different decisions.

     

    Attack the post, not the poster.

     

    This is very much a "Devil's Advocate" argument. Its April 1, and one is forecasting the Twins in 2017. If one "guessed" what the record would be by May 17th, I doubt anyone would reasonable guess much above .400, which would put them 2 games behind KC and a predictable 6.5 games out of first.

    Under this scenario, why would one want to invest $10 million in relief pitchers that might increase one's win loss by maybe 2 irrelevant games? Write off the season and allow those power arms to further distinguish themselves.

    Now two unforeseen things have happened. One is that the Twins are winning (a lot) more games than expected and, more surprisingly, the Cleveland Baseball team is losing more than expected.

    These are both surprising outcomes, and, had a crystal ball had told Falvey they would have been in this situation at this time, I am guessing they would have made different decisions.

    Attack the post, not the poster.

     

    1. You might be good.

    2. You might be able to trade them for good prospects, if you aren't good.

    3. Well, they signed some bad ones, the only real delta at this point is money. I'd rather they had signed good ones, and not just saved money.

    I ttoally agree that we have to find a couple of spots to at least rotate up and down some of our promising future arms.

     

    Right now, answer this question: Who do you bring in for a ground ball (I guess, our closer). Who do you bring in for a fly ball. Who can possibly strikeout a batter. Who can give us 2+ innings of ball (or once thru the order). Do we have left/right options at any or all of those positions right now.

     

    Command may still be an issue with some of the youngsters being groomed, but putting the ball into play seems to be the commodity of the current bullpen.

     

    Of course, our starters have to consistently get towards the 7th inning to make any of this work. We have four that we are holding onto right now, one that isn't consistently getting into the sixth (so far). And we are a total sham with the fifth starter, and his name shouldn't be Haley or Duffey, sorry. I would rather see a Wheeler get a promotion than going after the Wilks and Tepesch's, at least at this point.

     

    Happily the Twins have been lucky with some first-rate rotation stuff. But of even greater concern is the batting lineup...is there a lineup or is it darts on who bats where and what. Sure, they have hit dingers in x-amount of straight games, but overall...it is an average lineup that is full of a bunch of 1 for 4 hitters, or so it seems more often than not.




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