Edouard Julien is the French-Canadian God of Walks

There's a famous scene in the 2011 movie Moneyball, in which Brad Pitt's and Jonah Hill’s characters try to convince Oakland’s scouting staff of ways the team can replace the good players they are losing in free agency. It’s a back-and-forth conversation, but the basic premise is that the scout says, “Why do you like him?” And the front office duo responds, “He gets on base.” This scene oversimplifies sabermetric ideas at the time, but the concept holds true. Working a count and getting on base are tremendously valuable skills, and Edouard Julien seems to have mastered them.

Julien’s baseball journey has been anything but typical. A native of Quebec, he showed up at Auburn University as a teenager who spoke little English. He drew 38 walks in 251 plate appearances during his freshman season, and posted a .398 OBP. In 2019, he walked at an even higher rate, with 46 free passes in 294 plate appearances. Based on his collegiate performance, the Twins selected Julien in the 18th round of the 2019 MLB Draft. 

Julien wasn’t a highly-ranked player coming out of high school, and his college career didn’t elevate his draft stock to elite levels. It only garnered enough attention to net him a $493,000 bonus as a late-round pick by the Twins. He’s had to prove himself every step of the way, including his time after signing that deal.

His professional debut came in 2021, and he continued to show an exceptional eye at the plate. In 112 games, he coaxed 110 walks and posted a .434 OBP between Low A and High A. Minnesota sent him to Double A in 2022, where he was over a year younger than the average age of the competition. He drew 98 walks in 113 games and posted a .441 OBP. Julien didn’t make any national top-100 lists, but he rose on Twins lists, including being Twins Daily’s fifth-ranked prospect. It seemed as though he was on the cusp of impacting the big-league roster. 

During the World Baseball Classic, Julien announced himself to the baseball world. He destroyed the ball for Team Canada, including a 1.821 OPS, the highest total by any hitter in the tournament. Minnesota sent Julien to Triple-A St. Paul to start the year, and he posted a .435 OBP with 32 walks in 38 games. The Twins called him up in the middle of April for his first taste of the big leagues, and he’d move back and forth between Triple-A during the season’s early months. On June 10th, he rejoined the Twins and stayed at the big-league level for the balance of the campaign. During his rookie season, Julien hit .263/.381/.459, with 16 doubles and 16 home runs. Most notably, he continued to draw walks at an incredible rate. 

Julien’s walk rate was fifth-best among big-league hitters with 400 or more plate appearances. The players ahead of him on the list were Aaron Judge, Juan Soto, Kyle Schwarber, and Andrew McCutchen. Those are some of the most patient hitters in the game. Julien also had the lowest out-of-zone swing rate of any player in the league (see below). When a player works ahead in the count, they have a better chance to get a pitch they can hit for power. Julien posted a .529 OBP and a .987 OPS when he was ahead. It’s exciting to see the company Julien has already joined and to project what he might be able to accomplish in his sophomore season. 

Projection models can be fickle, especially for players with a specific skill set like Julien’s. Baseball Reference projects Julien will hit .267/.370/.462, with 55 walks in 404 PA. If I were a betting man, I’d take the over on his walks and OBP. Yet, there is also a chance that the league will catch up to Julien next season and not allow him to draw as many walks. He will need to continue to make adjustments, and there may be times of the year when he must be aggressive at the plate.

One adjustment facing Julien next season is his approach with two strikes. Last season, he was very passive in two-strike counts, which led to him taking a lot of called third strikes. Among MLB hitters, he had the lowest swing rate (42.7%) of any hitter with two strikes, ranking 3.3% lower than the next-most selective guys (Juan Soto and Matt Wallner). With two strikes, Julien hit .147/.298/.199 (.497), with 128 strikeouts in 235 plate appearances. He must be more aggressive in two-strike counts, to keep pitchers honest and moderate his high strikeout totals. 

Julien is a different style of hitter than the Twins have had in quite some time. He was a late-round steal in the draft and is quickly developing into the Canadian God of Walks. Why do the Twins like him? He gets on base, which could make for an exciting 2024 season. 

What are your expectations for Julien in 2024? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion.