Does Simeon Woods Richardson Have a Future With the Twins?

Simeon Woods Richardson is a young and spry 23-year-old, and he wants you to know that. In an interview with ABC 6 News Rochester, Zone Coverage, and Twins Daily's Theodore Tollefson, Woods Richardson stated, "I’m still one of the youngest guys here. I may not carry myself like it, but I’m still one of the youngest guys here."

Being young and spry is, of course, a favorable situation to find oneself in. To be young is to be strong, full of energy and stamina, and sharp-minded. These qualities ought to be used on something of purpose, and Woods Richardson is using his in an attempt to make a living as a professional baseball pitcher.

I, as a fellow "young and spry" 23-year-old, am using mine in an attempt to be a public school teacher. Now, Woods Richardson has the potential to make millions of dollars, have access to the best healthcare in the world, and travel around the United States and the Canadian province of Ontario for free. I, on the other hand, have the opportunity to make roughly $50,000 a year, access to unreliable state healthcare, and the ability to travel to the Wisconsin Dells, barring I get an increase on my credit card spending limit (please, Discover, I want to go to Mt. Olympus). 

Obviously, one unnamed individual is winning here, but author Kurt Vonnegut once proclaimed, "Teaching, may I say, is the noblest profession of all in a democracy." Notice how he didn't mention professional baseball players?

Regardless, Woods Richardson is prime to contribute to a Major League Baseball team. Unfortunately, he has yet to do so. 

Since being drafted by the New York Mets in the 2018 MLB Draft out of I. H. Kempner High School in Sugar Land, Texas, Woods Richardson has been a part of two prominent league-altering trades and three organizations. 

Here is a brief history of said trades:

• (July 28, 2019) The New York Mets traded pitching prospects Anthony Kay and Simeon Woods Richardson to the Toronto Blue Jays for right-handed starting pitcher Marcus Stroman and cash considerations.
• (July 30, 2021) The Toronto Blue Jays traded pitching prospect Simeon Woods Richardson and infield/outfield prospect Austin Martin to the Minnesota Twins for starting pitcher Jose Berríos. 

A silver lining for Woods Richardson being a prominent component of significant trades is that he is a wanted commodity. Unfortunately, he has yet to find consistent footing with a sole organization. 

Woods Richardson never pitched for the Mets or Blue Jays at the Major League level. However, he has made two Major League appearances for the Twins, including his Major League debut against the Detroit Tigers on October 2, 2022. 

Woods Richardson impressed in his Major League debut, facing 20 total batters over five innings pitched, giving up two earned runs while walking two and striking out three. Woods Richardson didn't make the Twins 2023 Opening Day roster and made only one Major League appearance, facing 24 total batters and giving up five earned runs while walking three and striking out five over 4 2/3 innings of stretch relief against the Washington Nationals on April 22.

On April 23, Woods Richardson was demoted to Triple-A St. Paul and spent the rest of the 2023 season with the Saints. Woods Richardson struggled mightily upon his demotion, sporting a 7.38 ERA and 1.85 WHIP in early June. Luckily, a switch flipped for Woods Richardson, and he was able to manufacture the lowest ERA, opponent BA, SLG, OPS, and wOBA of all Triple-A starting pitchers from mid-June to mid-September. 

Woods Richardson's quick turnaround is what the kids like to call “an unprecedented stark contrast in performance.”

Woods Richardson finished his 2023 Triple-A campaign with a 4.91 ERA, 1.50 WHIP, and .253 opponent BA with 109 hits allowed, 13 home runs allowed, 61 walks, and 96 strikeouts. Though these numbers are overall uninspiring, considering where Woods Richardson was in mid-June, his late-season turnaround is unequivocally impressive.

Combining Woods Richardson's immense early struggles with his incredible finish to the season, it is difficult to get a grasp on his potential as a future Major League starting pitcher. Though this is the case, it appears that Woods Richardson is destined to be a productive Major League-caliber starting pitcher, and his Stuff+ at the Triple-A level greatly infers that.

Stuff+ is a pitching-specific sabermetric created by Max Bay and Eno Sarris. According to FanGraphs, Stuff+ looks only at the physical characteristics of a pitch. Important features include, but are not limited to, release point, velocity, vertical and horizontal movement, and spin rate.

Woods Richardson threw 1,985 pitches over 24 appearances at the Triple-A level this season, and according to Eno Sarris' Pitcher Report spreadsheet, Woods Richardson finished the 2023 season ranked 10th out of 1239 Triple-A pitchers in Stuff+ with a rating of 116.9. For reference, rookie pitchers who made immediate contributions for their clubs, Bobby Miller (124.9) and Tanner Bibee (120.2), finished ahead of Woods Richardson in 3rd and 8th place, respectively.

Woods Richardson also finished ahead of fellow young pitchers who pitched well during their debut 2023 seasons in AJ Smith-Shawvver (113.9) and Gavin Williams (113.6), who finished in 19th and 20th place, respectively. 

Now, Stuff+ doesn't attempt to predict whether a pitcher will be successful or not, but what it does do is measure how effective or "nasty" their pitches are. Young pitchers who throw nasty pitches, like Miller and Bibee, tend to be successful at the Major League level.

What is interesting about Woods Richardson is that his pitches are "nasty" in a different way from the traditionally effective Miller and Bibee. Whereas Miller and Bibee can overpower hitters with overpowering fastballs and complementary offspeed pitches, Woods Richardson tends to outmatch hitters due to his unique release point and pitch movement combination.

According to FanGraphs, Stuff+ values the release point of a pitcher. So, some pitchers with unique release points, movement combinations, and, in turn, effective pitch deception tactics score very well despite lower velocities.

Woods Richardson has a unique overhead release point. Also, Woods Richardson, a right-handed pitcher, maxes out at 92-93 MPH. Combined, these two Woods Richardson-specific quirks create deception and play into the more obscure elements of pitching that Stuff+ values, making him a prime candidate to be highly valued by Bay and Sarris' Stuff+ model. 

Interestingly, Sarris' Pitcher Report model projects Woods Richardson to have a lackluster 2024 season as the 629th-best pitcher out of the 4017 qualified pitchers between the Majors and all Minor League levels. 

To add context, here is how Sarris' model projects Woods Richardson's 2024 campaign to play out:

• 4.73 ERA, 4.51 FIP, 1.37 WHIP, 21% K%, 9.5% BB%, .290 BABIP, 116 Stuff+, 142 strikeouts, 4.6 innings pitched/game, 146 innings pitched

Sarris has Woods Richardson projected to finish just behind pending free agent Lucas Giolito (628th place) and ahead of Philadelphia Phillies starter Ranger Suarez (636th place) in performance during the 2024 season. 

Woods Richardson's projected statistics are undesirable at the surface level, particularly after how well the Twins starting rotation performed during the 2023 season. However, getting this performance out of a fringe-fifth starter would be ideal. 

"Fringe-fifth starter" is precisely how I would describe Woods Richardson's impending role with the Twins for the 2024 season, much like his role during the 2023 season.

Going into the 2024 season, Woods Richardson is going to have to come into Spring Training prepared after what is hopefully a productive offseason to apply himself and compete with fellow "fringe-fifth starters" in fellow 40-man roster spot occupiers in Louie Varland, Brent Headrick, Josh Winder, and Cole Sands for a more meaningful role.

Woods Richardson has the tools and skill to succeed at the Major League level, as evidenced by his impressive Stuff+ and remarkable last three months of his 2023 Triple-A campaign. Nonetheless, he still needs to prove himself to be a viable Major League pitcher if he wants to be part of the Twins' plans beyond 2024.

Do you think Woods Richardson has a future with the Twins? What do you make of Woods Richardson's remarkable three-month stretch to end his 2023 Triple-A season? Comment below.