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    Consensus MLB Draft Board (Version 1)


    Jamie Cameron

    The Twins are in a great position ahead of the 2023 MLB Draft. They hold four top 100 picks (5, 34, 49, and 82) and have the fourth most money to spend ($14,345,600) despite having the thirteenth worst record in MLB in 2022. 2023 is one of the deeper draft classes in recent years. Let's take a look at some of the prospects available to teams in July.

    Image courtesy of Brock Beauchamp

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    Last year, I published the first ever ‘Consensus Draft Board’, at Twins Daily. I also wrote, after the fact, about some commitments to making it better for 2023, and I think I’m delivering on those. So what is a Consensus Board? What’s new for 2023?

    What?
    I love drafts in sports, always have, always will. As data, information, and the availability of information to the public has transformed so has our understanding of the draft process. Nowhere is this more true than the NFL. While I’d argue that MLB leads all sports in its use of data to inform player development and performance, there is so much less data publicly available for the draft and amateur prospects, in addition to less draft-related content. The MLB Draft is always inherently unpredictable, with wildly discrepant rankings depending on what evaluators value. The Consensus Board (inspired by Arif Hasan’s NFL Consensus Board), takes as many inputs as I have available to me, and creates a consensus ranking for prospects.

    Last year, I took rankings from Baseball America, Prospects Live, MLB, The Athletic, and ESPN and created a consensus top 56 players for the 2022 MLB Draft. They were published at Twins Daily in two articles. You can find part one of that series here, and part two here. The results were encouraging. After Day 1 in 2022 (through 80 picks), 63 of our top 70 players had been drafted, with three more heading to college. Not bad.

    How to Use This Tool
    This is hopefully easy to navigate. For each ranked player, you’ll see position, age, ranking, school, first name, last name, height, weight, handedness (S=switch), future value (not yet), and writeup. Every top 100 player has a writeup, if you hover over the report icon for that player, it’ll give you notes on players tools, strengths, areas of growth, and recent performance.

    What are the Strengths and Flaws of This Approach?
    There’s inherently some value in consensus. The MLB Draft is so much more complicated than other sports. Combining rankings into a consensus can eliminate some of the noise and outliers from different evaluators models and processes. 

    In year one, there were two major challenges:

    • Consensus rankings with a relatively small number of inputs can lead to missing a great evaluation of a prospect that someone else has noticed or caught onto.
    • The rankings lag significantly behind current performance. Because major outlets (like MLB dot com) only update their rankings twice or three times from December to July, there’s often a disagreement in early versions of the board between consensus ranking and production (i.e. some players are higher than they should be, and some lower). I’d offer that the final version (July) of the board has the most value and will (hopefully) offer the most accuracy. 

    What Next?
    The chances are, unless you’re a draft junkie, this version of the board won’t be that relevant to you. However, as we get closer to the draft, it will become more so. The Consensus Board will get two further updates, to be published at the beginning of June, and the beginning of July. Readers will be able to see all three sets of rankings side by side to notice how prospects have moved up and down in the rankings as we approach the draft.

    Additionally, there will be updates to the notes of the most significant prospects, accounting for their end of season performance (particularly for college players), in addition to future value grades added for prospects in the final version of the board.

    Finally, the final rankings will also be published as articles at all three sites. I recognize that some folks may prefer to consume rankings as an article, so I’ll publish them with write ups as part of a 2 or 3 part series in the final week leading up to the draft, working to get players highlights added to those pieces.

    If you have questions or feedback about the process or generation of the board, please use the comments. I want readers at all three sites to feel well-informed and excited about the draft and the influx of talent to their favorite teams. Whether it's an idea to make the rankings better, catching a mistake (I’m sure there are some), or a comment on who you want your team to draft, we’d love to hear from you. Jeremy Nygaard and I will be working to provide y’all with comprehensive draft coverage as July gets closer, so let’s chop it up!

    2023 Consensus MLB Draft Board V1 (May 2023)

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    Thanks Jamie, I'm enjoying the Draft Board you provided. I'm really into the MLB draft too. Although I'm not  that knowledgeable about a lot of prospects. Draft prospects are all over the place depending on which website & time taken. I've seen Wyatt Langford drop to #5 which would be nice but I doubt we'd be able to pick him up because I'm sure he'll rebound will be gone before then. I've seen both top prep Max Clark & Walker Jenkins jockeying up & down the rankings & both could be available to us. Also top college arms (which IMO should be high priority) Paul Skenes & Chase Dollander could be available. Wes Johnson has helped Skenes a lot to where most likely he'd be gone. Yet Dollander has dropped from #1 to #6, he might have the most upside, he'd be my guess of our 1st round pick right now.

    Early this year, our #34 pick I was hoping to pick up Kyle Teel, IMO the only decent college catcher available, which is a high priority, But his stock has been really rising, maybe his stock will rise to the point where he could be a dark horse for our 1st round pick. Actually my other #34 pick is another catcher Cole Carrigg, which has slipped in the ranking, IMO is because of his speed, pundit has listed him more utility than catcher, which is a big mistake because there are so few capable college catchers available & his athleticism is not a liability but a great asset. Although we could pick him up with our #49 pick, I wouldn't risk it & pick him as our #34. Teel bats LH & Carrigg switch, both are plus.

     

    First of all, just want to say thank you for putting this together! As someone who follows the draft pretty closely, I can't imagine how much work this has been!

    My view of things at the moment is that Crews/Skenes are essentially locks to go in the first 3 picks. I don't think any amount of struggles in the next 2 months, or even injury, could possibly knock them down to the Twins,

    I think this Twins FO would love for Langford to drop to 5, which is probably unlikely, but certainly more possible than Crews/Skenes. Personally I feel like there's a pretty big drop off after the top 5 (Jenkins/Clark being the other two), so I'm perfectly happy if any of those are the pick. They all have unique skill sets, with the potential to be all-stars at the next level.

    I'm probably the outlier on here, but I have very little interest in Dollander at #5, even if he turns things around the rest of the college season. I would much rather go for a high-end every day player and take shots on college pitchers in rounds 3-20. If the Twins decide to get creative and potentially save some money at #5 to go over-slot at #34/49, the two I would have my eye on are Kyle Teel and Tommy Troy. 

    Still a long ways to go, and the MLB draft is so unpredictable that things could look totally different come July,  but the only thing I'm confident of is that the Twins are in a great spot given their lottery luck and bonus pool!

    The board looks about right to me or at least what I see when out on various sites.  Also stat wise hard to argue with it right now.  Like last year though I expect some high school kids to rise up in the draft but it is gonna be hard to crack the top 5. Crews looks amazing and Langford not too far off his numbers.  Skenes has been dominant.  Clark possibly a five tool player and Jenkins is right there with him except he has power. 

    I guess I like Wilson better than where he is on the list but Maybe that is the Arraez effect?  Wilson might not have power but the ability to not strike out and have a good eye at the plate is very valuable as well.  Not to mention it looks like he could stick at short.

    All I know is that there are going to great players at number 5 no matter how they fall on the board.

    To me it's either Skenes, or the best bat available. It looks like the most likely option will be one of the high school bats, and I'm good with that. The Twins have a wave of prospects currently hitting the top of the minors, and the majors. Clark or Jenkins could take the spot at the top of the next wave. If any of Skenes, Crews, or Langford fall I'd be sprinting to the podium to take them. I don't see any of them getting skipped by 2 teams, though, unless 2 teams really fall in love with the HS kids. This feels like a draft with a bit of a drop after the first 5 so it's nice to see the Twins be in that 5 hole. By all accounts right now the Twins are going to have the chance to draft a really nice prospect with perennial all star upside. 

    1 hour ago, Doctor Gast said:

    Thanks Jamie, I'm enjoying the Draft Board you provided. I'm really into the MLB draft too. Although I'm not  that knowledgeable about a lot of prospects. Draft prospects are all over the place depending on which website & time taken. I've seen Wyatt Langford drop to #5 which would be nice but I doubt we'd be able to pick him up because I'm sure he'll rebound will be gone before then. I've seen both top prep Max Clark & Walker Jenkins jockeying up & down the rankings & both could be available to us. Also top college arms (which IMO should be high priority) Paul Skenes & Chase Dollander could be available. Wes Johnson has helped Skenes a lot to where most likely he'd be gone. Yet Dollander has dropped from #1 to #6, he might have the most upside, he'd be my pick right now.

    Early this year, our #34 pick I was hoping to pick up Kyle Teel, IMO the only decent college catcher available, which is a high priority, But his stock has been really rising, maybe his stock will rise to the point where he could be a dark horse for our 1st round pick. Actually my other #34 pick is another catcher Cole Carrigg, which has slipped in the ranking, IMO is because of his speed, pundit has listed him more utility than catcher, which is a big mistake because there are so few capable college catchers available & his athleticism is not a liability but a great asset. Although we could pick him up with our #49 pick, I wouldn't risk it & pick him as our #34. Teel bats LH & Carrigg switch, both are plus.

     

    I'll say this about Teel. I think he's got a decent chance to go top 10, now. Carrigg for sure not a catcher. I think you'll see in the June version there are some more college catchers coming into the mix. Carico is an interesting name to watch in that sub-population

    13 minutes ago, jishfish said:

    First of all, just want to say thank you for putting this together! As someone who follows the draft pretty closely, I can't imagine how much work this has been!

    My view of things at the moment is that Crews/Skenes are essentially locks to go in the first 3 picks. I don't think any amount of struggles in the next 2 months, or even injury, could possibly knock them down to the Twins,

    I think this Twins FO would love for Langford to drop to 5, which is probably unlikely, but certainly more possible than Crews/Skenes. Personally I feel like there's a pretty big drop off after the top 5 (Jenkins/Clark being the other two), so I'm perfectly happy if any of those are the pick. They all have unique skill sets, with the potential to be all-stars at the next level.

    I'm probably the outlier on here, but I have very little interest in Dollander at #5, even if he turns things around the rest of the college season. I would much rather go for a high-end every day player and take shots on college pitchers in rounds 3-20. If the Twins decide to get creative and potentially save some money at #5 to go over-slot at #34/49, the two I would have my eye on are Kyle Teel and Tommy Troy. 

    Still a long ways to go, and the MLB draft is so unpredictable that things could look totally different come July,  but the only thing I'm confident of is that the Twins are in a great spot given their lottery luck and bonus pool!

    Thanks for the kind words. Been working on it since February lol. Agree with pretty much everything you said. I think you can include Langford as a top 3 lock. I prefer Jenkins to Clark but I like both. Wouldn't b a huge fan of a Jacob Gonzalez pick, just a little safe and vanilla for me but seen him linked a lot. Teel has a good shot at a top 10 pick. Tommy Troy is Brian Dozier 2.0 so I think those are both good shouts for under slot guys if they decide to go that route.

    12 minutes ago, Dman said:

    The board looks about right to me or at least what I see when out on various sites.  Also stat wise hard to argue with it right now.  Like last year though I expect some high school kids to rise up in the draft but it is gonna be hard to crack the top 5. Crews looks amazing and Langford not too far off his numbers.  Skenes has been dominant.  Clark possibly a five tool player and Jenkins is right there with him except he has power. 

    I guess I like Wilson better than where he is on the list but Maybe that is the Arraez effect?  Wilson might not have power but the ability to not strike out and have a good eye at the plate is very valuable as well.  Not to mention it looks like he could stick at short.

    All I know is that there are going to great players at number 5 no matter how they fall on the board.

    Wilson is an interesting one. Agree the hit tool is amazing. The main reason I think he's dinged is he's not going to be a shortstop long term. He might play there, but he first step is too slow imo. If he's not a SS, I wonder where his defensive home is and where ever that might be (3B?) his power-lacking offensive profile doesn't really match.

    10 minutes ago, Jamie Cameron said:

     Wouldn't b a huge fan of a Jacob Gonzalez pick, just a little safe and vanilla for me but seen him linked a lot. 

    I'm 100% with you on this, and would also throw Jacob Wilson and Brayden Taylor into this bucket, personally. I know Taylor has fallen in a lot of recent rankings which probably aren't reflected here since they came out in the last 24 hours or so.

    I'm sure all three of those guys will end up being fine players, they just don't do it for me at the moment.

    2 hours ago, Doctor Gast said:

    IMO the only decent college catcher available, which is a high priority

    Get the best talent is the only priority. If they need to adjust their roster they should do it by trade. Never reach to fill an organizational need.

    2 hours ago, Jamie Cameron said:

    I'll say this about Teel. I think he's got a decent chance to go top 10, now. Carrigg for sure not a catcher. I think you'll see in the June version there are some more college catchers coming into the mix. Carico is an interesting name to watch in that sub-population

    I'm not saying you're wrong but just curious Jamie on why you think Carrigg is not a catcher? The only knock I get about Carrigg is that he doesn't have that raw power yet. The few scouting reports I've read states that catching is his best value in the majors. Here's M SABRE comment.

     "A solid hitter with good speed and a good arm in center or at short is not too rare, but a switch hitting catcher with a strong arm, speed and a good hit tool will really turn some heads."

    They even compare him to Endy Rodriguez except Endy has developed much more power & Cole is much faster.

    The interesting thing with Carico is his raw power & his upper cut swing. I maybe wrong but sorry to me that has Sano written all over it.

    41 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

    I'm not saying you're wrong but just curious Jamie on why you think Carrigg is not a catcher? The only knock I get about Carrigg is that he doesn't have that raw power yet. The few scouting reports I've read states that catching is his best value in the majors. Here's M SABRE comment.

     "A solid hitter with good speed and a good arm in center or at short is not too rare, but a switch hitting catcher with a strong arm, speed and a good hit tool will really turn some heads."

    They even compare him to Endy Rodriguez except Endy has developed much more power & Cole is much faster.

    The interesting thing with Carico is his raw power & his upper cut swing. I maybe wrong but sorry to me that has Sano written all over it.

    He's listed as an outfielder by SDSU. Additionally, most national outlets position him as a SS or OF. Maybe a team drafts him with a view to him being a C but that's certainly not how the majority of evaluators seems to see him currently.

    31 minutes ago, Jamie Cameron said:

    He's listed as an outfielder by SDSU. Additionally, most national outlets position him as a SS or OF. Maybe a team drafts him with a view to him being a C but that's certainly not how the majority of evaluators seems to see him currently.

    Thanks Jamie I see your point. He has played a lot of catcher in years past. But this year they have him playing OF. I can't find out why but I imagine it's like Wyatt Langford the need was more in OF than catcher. Most reviews I've seen premiere him at catcher but that's might be changing since he hasn't played there this year.

    Love this list Jamie. It's fun to read through, and the Twins will add some really good prospects to the organization this July. :)

    A thought for you; I really am excited about the potential of Kyle Teel. I would rank him behind Crews/Langford/Jenkins/Clark, but not a LOT behind them. And if the Twins took Teel at 5, I would be excited for his bat and his arm coming to the Twins.

    My question for you; let's say the Twins take Teel and is able to save (possibly) some draft allocated money. Who is someone that you would pursue to over-slot pay to get to 34 in that scenario?

    On 5/3/2023 at 9:49 AM, Cory Engelhardt said:

    Love this list Jamie. It's fun to read through, and the Twins will add some really good prospects to the organization this July. :)

    A thought for you; I really am excited about the potential of Kyle Teel. I would rank him behind Crews/Langford/Jenkins/Clark, but not a LOT behind them. And if the Twins took Teel at 5, I would be excited for his bat and his arm coming to the Twins.

    My question for you; let's say the Twins take Teel and is able to save (possibly) some draft allocated money. Who is someone that you would pursue to over-slot pay to get to 34 in that scenario?

    Good Q and thanks for reading, Cory. Don't know that there a ton of candidates that fit the bill for a move like that so far, kinda depends on how later versions of the board shake out, maybe Eldridge, but he's getting top 12 buzz now. Tbh, a lot of the prospects I'm most interested in who fit in the top 50 are college bats. My best case scenario as currently constructed would be Clark or Jenkins, followed by two college bats or college bat and best arm you like. I don't think Teel is going to go that much under slot as he's starting to get 'third best college bat' behind Crews and Langford type of descriptors thrown around. Overall, too early to say.

    53 minutes ago, Jamie Cameron said:

    Good Q and thanks for reading, Cory. Don't know that there a ton of candidates that fit the bill for a move like that so far, kinda depends on how later versions of the board shake out, maybe Eldridge, but he's getting top 12 buzz now. Tbh, a lot of the prospects I'm most interested in who fit in the top 50 are college bats. My best case scenario as currently constructed would be Clark or Jenkins, followed by two college bats or college bat and best arm you like. I don't think Teel is going to go that much under slot as he's starting to get 'third best college bat' behind Crews and Langford type of descriptors thrown around. Overall, too early to say.

    That sounds like a fun draft plan Jamie. Thanks for the response! And yeah, adding Clark or Jenkins, along with a couple of other college bats, will greatly improve our system.

    I am of the thinking that either Jenkins or Clark would slot at or near the top of our current rankings, possibly even above Lee. Do you agree with that? I'm also curious where you would GUESS a college hitter (let's say ranked in the #25-40 range) would fit into our rankings as they pick at #34. Would that hitter, theorhetically, be in our top 10?



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