A Closer Look at the 2015 Twins

It's amazing how often that schill insult gets thrown around at anyone who dares take a positive outlook on the future of the Twins organization.  It comes from the crowds that don't pay attention to the organization as a whole, and simply watch the product at the major league level.  They look at Wins and losses, ERA, and RBI as their key indicators for how good a player is performing, and often times don't understand the role advanced metrics play in evaluation and prediction.  Then they play the "How, as a fan, can you not be outraged by this horrible team" card, and follow it up with "Prospects are just prospects until they've proven something in the majors" as if that isn't a concept that you're aware of. 

 

Kudos to you for clarifying and doubling down on your statement.

Shame on people for using wins and losses as a basis for how good a team is lol... We should all cherry pick advanced metrics to support our arguments!

The strategy looks pretty good if viewed in the context of the first year or two.  What about in 2016 and 2017 when we could actually be in contention.  Mauer, Nolasco and XX Elite SP would constitute 50% of the entire payroll budget.  (if the Twins set new revenue records)  That is a scary thought.  Mauer and Nolasco are likely to way underperform by then.  So now we should take on another huge contract of someone who is very likely going to also underperform in the final couple years of their contract.  And we would do this so we could be mediocre the next couple years and then have a bunch of dead weight on the books about the time we start getting good.

Nolasco will be off the books after 2017 and Mauer the year after. For only 3 years would they all be on the books at the same time as a 3rd or 4th FA signing.

They only make up a such a large proportion of the budget because they don't have anyone else to pay, and won't have anyone else to pay for many years yet.

 

 

I think the issue I have is that I'd rather make the big expenditures when the team is a contender needing to fill a hole than to do it now when they aren't a contender. I don't see much positive from this as whatever FA they sign is probably going to be worse (potentially much worse) in 2017/18 and the presence of a contract will essentially hamstring the team from doing anything at that point. I'm not necessarily against it, but I think the idea of going out and getting that ace right now is pretty risky since that ace won't likely be that guy anymore when the team will most need it.

They Twins could ink one 8 year/175m contract for the next 4 straight offseasons and never crack 100m in payroll (this is before accounting for arb raises, but besides Plouffe, who is due for a big raise?)

They can do both.

They Twins could ink one 8 year/175m contract for the next 4 straight offseasons and never crack 100m in payroll (this is before accounting for arb raises, but besides Plouffe, who is due for a big raise?)

 

They can do both.

Every single person on the roster and even guys in the minors right now will receive raises in that time frame. So no, they couldn't do one of those contracts the next four years and stay under $100 mil. They probably couldn't even do two.

Fair enough, there will be 17-18 guys on the 25 man who will get paid the minimum plus whatever COLA raise they get. So I'm not accounting for ~$10m of payroll.

Add $10 to the projected payroll, as taken from the Payroll page here on TD, add a 8/175m contract every year for the next four years, and here's what the 25-man financial picture looks like.

2014 $87,333,898
2015 $92,675,000
2016 $109,250,000
2017 $88,750,000
2018 $98,625,000
2019 $65,625,000
2020 $65,625,000
2021 $65,625,000
2022 $65,625,000

edit: Plus, again, whatever arb raises there are (Plouffe and - gasp - Escobar, Schafer, etc)

He didn't say team, he said player.

 

And wins-losses is a terrible statistic to use in player evaluation.

Oh okay..Ricky Nolasco is 5-10 with 5.96 ERA, are there any advanced metrics that suggest hes pitching better than his W/L and ERA? How about Joe... .274 with 4 hrs and 46 rbis.. where are the metrics suggesting hes just getting unlucky? The advanced metric I like most says we are 61-78 lol

Fair enough, there will be 17-18 guys on the 25 man who will get paid the minimum plus whatever COLA raise they get. So I'm not accounting for ~$10m of payroll.

 

Add $10 to the projected payroll, as taken from the Payroll page here on TD, add a 8/175m contract every year for the next four years, and here's what the 25-man financial picture looks like.

 

2014 $87,333,898

2015 $92,675,000

2016 $109,250,000

2017 $88,750,000

2018 $98,625,000

2019 $65,625,000

2020 $65,625,000

2021 $65,625,000

2022 $65,625,000

Your math confuses and frightens me. Unless I am misunderstanding your point, the 2019 payroll would be $87 mil with just the 4 hypothetical fa signings. And this assumes basically no one else makes above the minimum (to stay under $100 mil)?

Your math confuses and frightens me. Unless I am misunderstanding your point, the 2019 payroll would be $87 mil with just the 4 hypothetical fa signings. And this assumes basically no one else makes above the minimum (to stay under $100 mil)?

Do you think the Twins will be paying big arbitration raises to Plouffe long after Sano's up?

There is Gibson in 2017, that could push payroll over 100 million, assuming he stays healthy and relatively productive. Of course by 2017 the Twins are going to be good, right?

Beisdes those two, who am I missing?

http://twinsdaily.com/roster-payroll.html

Do you think the Twins will be paying big arbitration raises to Plouffe long after Sano's up?

 

There is Gibson in 2017, that could push payroll over 100 million, assuming he stays healthy and relatively productive. Of course by 2017 the Twins are going to be good, right?

 

Beisdes those two, who am I missing?

 

http://twinsdaily.com/roster-payroll.html

Dozier? Arcia? Santana? Vargas? Pinto? Hughes extension? Mauer extension? Hicks (wishful thinking)? 

By 2020, you would have the same $87 mil for the 4 fa, plus potential of guys listed above, plus guys that debut next year (Sano, Buxton, Meyer, Berrios, etc) starting to get paid for arb.

Same issue in 2021, but even more expensive arb cases.

Obviously all these guys aren't going to make it to arb, but that also counts no other free agents to fill in possible holes that are filled by guys that don't make it internally.

There is, without question, a window of 4-5 years to go big on a fa or two, and I hope they do, but they only really have one or two shots to do so, not 4.

Have enjoyed this discussion extremely - one of the best in a while.  So now for my small contribution.

Call it a hunch or whatever, I believe the Twins are on the cusp of playoff baseball.  Reminds me a great deal of the very early 2000's.  No we're not there yet, but with the wealth of very talented minor leaguers knocking on the door, I expect competitive baseball starting in 2016 with dominance in the Central at least beyond that.  Yes, holes will need to be filled, but the core is maturing to that timeframe, barring any repeat of the 2014 injury hex.

To evaluate players strictly by metrics or current performance without context can certainly skew any projection.  Young talented players should mature and grow in their performance.  If not they are gone.  Players moving into their prime years should be able to at least maintain their recent level of performance.  While the older players will likely regress somewhat, but the real professionals usually know how to adjust with declining skills by adjusting roles.

This is true for every club.  What is some promising for the Twins is that we are moving into our youth movement, which no one should be able to deny its strength of talent. 

While I have grown weary of lousy years, this sunrise of the future Twins team is starting to look "gorgeous."  Can't wait until it's High Noon!