5 Questions the Minnesota Twins Must Answer Before the 2024 MLB Trade Deadline

MLB’s trade deadline has taken on a different vibe in recent years, with more playoff spots in both leagues resulting in more teams being in contention. According to FanGraphs’s updated playoff odds, fourteen teams have at least a 30% chance of making the playoffs, with 11 teams having better odds than 50%. One way to increase those odds is to fill holes at the trade deadline, and the Twins will have that opportunity in the coming weeks. Let’s look at the questions facing the front office as they decide on an appropriate trade deadline approach. 

Are the Twins buyers or sellers?
Minnesota entered play this weekend with over a 60% chance to make the playoffs and a 22.2% chance of winning the AL Central. Projection models view the team as a playoff contender, even with the team’s up-and-down first half of the season. In baseball, the key is to make the playoffs, because that is when anything can happen--as fans remember with the 1987 and 1991 World Series teams.

Playoff baseball can be very inconsistent, with the best regular season team rarely winning the World Series. The Texas Rangers stumbled into the playoffs last season and got hot enough to win the title. The Los Angeles Dodgers won 111 games in 2022 and failed to make it out of the divisional round. Atlanta had the fifth-best record in the NL during the 2021 season and bunched together wins when it mattered the most. The Twins have flaws; the trade deadline allows the team to be buyers and fill those holes.

Does the team need to add a playoff-caliber starter?
Joe Ryan and Simeon Woods Richardson have been the team’s top-performing starters this season, but it is yet to be seen if the team will trust them in October. Ryan performed well in the first half last season, before a groin injury significantly impacted his performance. The Twins didn’t trust him to start a playoff game until it was completely necessary, and even then, he was only allowed to go through the lineup once. Woods Richardson has shown plenty of positive signs this season and is on an upward trend, but the prospect of relying on a 23-year-old rookie in October can give a team pause.

Pablo López needs to return to his previous form to be ready for the playoffs, though his peripheral numbers point to him being better than he has been in 2024. López fits into a group of starters for whom the front office has traded in recent years while preferring that the players have multiple years of team control. Front-line pitching comes at a high cost, so the front office must balance the current and future value of all players involved in a deal. 

Where does the lineup need to be upgraded?
The Twins have three positions that have seen below-average production this season: second base, designated hitter, and first base. Edouard Julien, the team’s primary second baseman, posted a 95 OPS+ before being demoted to Triple-A in May. Minnesota has turned the position over to Willi Castro, with top prospects Brooks Lee and Austin Martin as options for the second half. Royce Lewis recently returned from the injured list, and his addition has helped multiple spots in the lineup. He pushes José Miranda to first base and/or DH, while Lewis will need time at DH, too. 

Minnesota can target some of the best available bats to slide into first base, designated hitter, or a corner outfield spot. Pete Alonso is a name that will garner plenty of interest at the trade deadline since he is a pending free agent. The Twins and Mets might have a unique way to match up on a trade agreement. Some other potential bats that could be available include Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Christian Walker, Josh Bell, and J.D. Martinez. The Twins aren’t going to overspend on a rental player, but their need should be easy to fill with the available options. 

What needs are there in the bullpen?
Minnesota used a unique strategy last season when preparing the bullpen for October. Instead of overspending on expensive relievers via trade, the team focused on internal options to join the bullpen. Louie Varland shifted from starter to reliever, and Chris Paddack joined the bullpen after returning from Tommy John surgery. It was a strategy that worked well (in a small sample size). Teams need multiple high-leverage relief options in October, and the Twins could always use an upgrade. 

Jhoan Durán and Griffin Jax are locked into late-inning roles, and the team hopes Brock Stewart can join them in the second half. Varland is an option to switch back to a bullpen role, where he looked dominant last season. Caleb Thielbar has been a mess, but nothing is stopping him from making adjustments in the weeks ahead. Over the next month, the team can decide their level of trust in Steven Okert, Jorge Alcalá, and Cole Sands. There are questions with the team’s bullpen, but adding to this group shouldn’t be a priority at the trade deadline. 

What prospects can the team trade?
The Twins’ front office must surrender prospect capital to acquire top trade targets, and there are clear prospect tiers for the organization. Players like Walker Jenkins and Brooks Lee are considered untouchable in potential deals. Other names, like Emmanuel Rodríguez and David Festa, are likely only available in blockbuster deals. Some prospects have seen their stock rise this season, which is the type of player other organizations target. If the team follows the trend from recent trades, Luke Keaschall, Brandon Winokur, and Zebby Matthews might have their names connected to trade rumors.

During the 2023 season, the Twins decided to stand pat and not make any moves before the trade deadline. There were places on the roster that could have been upgraded, and the front office made calls on deals, but nothing came to fruition. It seems likely that the team will follow a similar plan of attack this season. If a deal develops, the club will pursue it, but it doesn’t seem likely that the front office will go all-in on the 2024 campaign. 

How will the Twins’ front office answer these questions? Are there any other questions to add to the list? Leave a comment and start the discussion.