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Connor Prielipp's season has been a roller coaster, and it might be reaching the top of the final hill. He got roughed up again in his last outing, and with Joe Ryan potentially nearing a return, it's fair to start wondering whether Prielipp's spot in the Minnesota Twins rotation is safe down the stretch.
To be clear, this isn't a total surprise. We knew going in that a season like this was possible for a young arm still finding his footing at the big-league level. Prielipp has flashed real promise in a number of his starts, but he's also been knocked around more than the Twins would like, and there's more behind that than simple growing pains.
Remember why the Twins were able to land him in the 2nd round of the 2022 MLB draft in the first place. Prielipp dealt with arm issues at Alabama, serious enough that a lot of evaluators thought of him as a future high-leverage reliever rather than a starter (if he was able to stay healthy at all). That path is still very much on the table; however, the Twins developed him as a starter, where he has shown promise. Early this season, there was a real question of whether he'd still be in the big-league rotation by the time September rolled around. While he’s shown that he could stick in the rotation, the bumps in the road have been real too.
Unfortunately, we’re at the point where the innings conversation becomes impossible to ignore. Prielipp has thrown 99 innings with the Twins this year, already more than he's thrown in any professional season since joining the organization (and that's not even counting his innings with the St. Paul Saints). That workload alone had people speculating around the trade deadline about whether the Twins might shut him down or shift him to the bullpen to manage his innings. That combined with his roller coaster performance might force the Twins’ hand.
Across 19 starts, Prielipp owns a 5.55 ERA, which looks rough on the surface. But dig a little deeper and there's reason for some optimism. His FIP sits at 3.98, suggesting the results haven't matched the underlying performance. He's also carrying a strikeout minus walk rate of 15.6%, which is a solid number for a starting pitcher but could be proved upon by limiting walks.
The problem is his most recent stretch, aside from a 7.76 ERA (4.73 FIP), his primary pitch offering hasn't been getting smacked. Though his secondaries still look good (or at least okay), it's his fastball and that has suddenly lost its shine where hitters are batting .364 against the pitch. And when you connect that to the innings totals, it wouldn't be shocking if his arm is simply running out of gas as the season reaches its final month.
So what happens next? Joe Ryan's return is reportedly on the horizon, and that changes the math for everyone in the rotation. The last time a starter had to make room for a returning arm, it was Zebby Matthews who got optioned to Triple-A St. Paul.. It'll be worth watching whether the Twins take a similar approach with Prielipp, sending him down to St. Paul for a reset and a chance to fine-tune his fastball and changeup before the season wraps up. That's not a demotion in the way it might sound. It could be exactly what he needs.
There's also the bigger picture to consider if the Twins make a real push toward October. If we're talking about a playoff rotation, Ryan and Taj Bradley look like the top two options right now, with Dean Kramer as the likely third. That would put Prielipp in a bullpen role if he's part of an October roster at all.
None of this means Prielipp is a bust or that his future in a Twins uniform is in doubt. Quite the opposite. A pitcher with a 4.11 FIP and a strong strikeout-to-walk rate has real things to like, even if the ERA doesn't show it yet. The bigger question is how the Twins manage him the rest of the way. Do they give him a reset in St. Paul, similar to what they did with Royce Lewis earlier this year?
I lean toward thinking a reset makes the most sense. Prielipp has already blown past his previous career high in innings, his fastball and changeup have clearly taken a hit lately, and there's no reason to push a talented young arm further into the danger zone in a season that may not have much playoff value attached to it anyway. Better to protect the asset now than risk a bigger issue down the road.
How do you think the Twins should handle Connor Prielipp over the next month? Should they option him down, shift him to the bullpen, or just ride it out? Join the conversation in the comments!
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- nclahammer, thelanges5 and glunn
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