Article: TD Top Prospects: #4 Kohl Stewart

[Ncgo4]

This young man has unlimited potential and this summer will be like no other. The reason, this fall he didn't have any 290 lb defensive linemen trying to knock his teeth out. He's been free to work on his baseball exclusively. By September we should have a little better idea of how quickly he will be prepared to progress through the minors

[jokin]

^^^^ This.

 

If Stewart is not up until 2018-9, he should not be ranked as the 4th best prospect in this system.

 

I think that 2016 is more realistic.

 

Let me add my "This" to this, as well as acknowledging your "^^^^This" to that.

 

"This" is good commonsense reasoning...... barring major injury, and based on other teams developmental experience in past similar draft position for potential Ace high school arms, many of us have had the reasonable expectation that Stewart ended up being mentally slated on our prospect list for a call-up at some point during 2016, moving up 2 levels per season, with perhaps a short repeat of AAA in the spring/early summer of 2016.

 

Again, James Shields worked his way up through 6 minor league years, including 3 years when his MLB future was in great doubt, but he was a 16th round draft choice:

 

 

Ranked as #27 Rays prospect after his fiirst season, 2001, age 19.

Injured, out all of 2002 season.

Ranked as #31 Rays prospect after his third season, 2003, age 21.

Ranked as #31 Rays prospect after his fourth season, 2004, age 22.

Ranked as #12 Rays prospect after his fifth season, 2005, age 23.

Ranked as preseason #10 International League prospect, 2006, age 24.

 

 

..... Stewart isn't Shields.....

there are much different expectations for a Top 4 overall pick and the #4 prospect in an organization with 2 of the best prospects in baseball ahead of him on the Twins list who deserve having top-flite pitching accompanying their own rise to the majors.

 

If Stewart isn't on the prudently-managed, but still fasttrack developmental curve, with a 2016/2017 objective for his MLB debut, something's wrong here.

[jokin]

D/P

[jimv2]

"many of us have had the reasonable expectation that Stewart ended up being mentally slated on our prospect list for a call-up at some point during 2016"

 

I believe he will be 21 for all of the 2016 season. Last year was considered a rather weak draft class. So over the last 10 years or so, how many high school pitchers drafted in the top 7-8 spots were called up by age 21?

 

I don't know the answer. Just trying to assess the reasonableness of that expectation in light of past experience.

[jokin]

"many of us have had the reasonable expectation that Stewart ended up being mentally slated on our prospect list for a call-up at some point during 2016"

 

I believe he will be 21 for all of the 2016 season. Last year was considered a rather weak draft class. So over the last 10 years or so, how many high school pitchers drafted in the top 7-8 spots were called up by age 21?

 

I don't know the answer. Just trying to assess the reasonableness of that expectation in light of past experience.

 

Go over to the Hulet article, where the author posits that there is a trend for clubs to move their top end pitchers through the developmental phase faster and are willing to put up with a year or two with a top prospect performing at a 5th starter level, so as to theoretically take advantage of having more of their potential top-performing years under cost-controlled scenarios, plus the big club can keep closer tabs on the health and mechanical issues when with the major league club. (Dylan Bundy, Archie Bradley, Robert Stephenson and Jose Fernandez come quickly to mind,and that was just 2011).

[Dantes929]

Given recent history, I can't help but wonder if he should just get TJ surgery now and be done with it. JK

[jimv2]

Go over to the Hulet article, where the author posits that there is a trend for clubs to move their top end pitchers through the developmental phase faster and are willing to put up with a year or two with a top prospect performing at a 5th starter level, so as to theoretically take advantage of having more of their potential top-performing years under cost-controlled scenarios, plus the big club can keep closer tabs on the health and mechanical issues when with the major league club. (Dylan Bundy, Archie Bradley, Robert Stephenson and Jose Fernandez come quickly to mind,and that was just 2011).

 

I understand the rest of it, but don't get "take advantage of having more of their potential top-performing years under cost-controlled scenarios". You use up a year of control every year they pitch in the bigs. If the guy will eventually be a one or two, it seems you get more of his one/towo years if you hold off promoting than if you waste a year having him be a 5.

[orangevening]

I don't like the reports of his diva-like attitude. Maybe it makes me *too* Minnesotain, but arrogance isn't a trait I hold high

[dakotanative]

Up to 6 years to begin (to only possibly) getting dividends on a high-end first round pick?

 

For an athlete of this level?

 

The fact that he wasn't a baseball-first guy was sold as a good thing.

 

Something seems askew here with this transaction- definitely not the type of high-end pick in the Twins standard MO. I don't remember any discussion of this "crudeness" in his form leading up to, and right after, draft day- this whole deal now sounds a lot more speculative than last June. And a comp with Trevor May? By Trevor's own admission, he isn't the greatest athlete.

 

Again, a truly great athlete like Stewart should respond more quickly to a training regimen than 6 years to refine and master his motion and strengthen his arm, especially if he already has 4 pitches in his repertoire to varying degrees of success and effectiveness. Let the grumbling begin.....and apparently, start looking for yet another high-upside arm next June

 

 

Let see...., Keith Law has a degree with honors from Harvard - sociology and economics and a masters degree in business admin. Does not appear to have ever played baseball much less coached it. No doubt about he is well qualified to scout players and to speculate on when they will arrive to the show. Personally I have no issues with Keith except he is a bit full of himself. One can look at all the baseball stats in the world and still not know what they are talking about or what they are seeing. Years ago when the debate about Moneyball school of baseball verses the "old school" raged, Keith consistently talked down the Twins for not embracing it. He always downgraded their prospects and the team as a whole. Did he have a point - yes. Did the Twins have a point - yes. Today we are seeing a blending of the sabermetrics approach with the good old fashion scouting and as a result our Twins are on a roll. The quality of the players, outside of the top 20, they have signed and are developing is amazing. When this next group of prospects hits the Show our Twins will be competitive for years to come as the farm system produces quality players to fill positions that become empty. To Keith's credit he did rank the Twins farm system quite high. However, a number of teams appear to court his favor and he tends to wax eloquent on their players. I do not see him ever being objective in regards to the Twins. Baring any serious setbacks Stewart will be in the Show in three years. Look at the trajectory of superior talent through out the years and they jump through their team's farm systems very quickly. If Stewart is a superior talent as they say he is, then he will be there sooner rather than later.

[70charger]

I don't like the reports of his diva-like attitude. Maybe it makes me *too* Minnesotain, but arrogance isn't a trait I hold high

 

Number of sources I've heard call him a "diva":

 

1. You.

 

 

 

 

 

I'm going to go ahead and reserve judgment until I hear something real.

[jokin]

Let see...., Keith Law has a degree with honors from Harvard - sociology and economics and a masters degree in business admin. Does not appear to have ever played baseball much less coached it. No doubt about he is well qualified to scout players and to speculate on when they will arrive to the show. Personally I have no issues with Keith except he is a bit full of himself. One can look at all the baseball stats in the world and still not know what they are talking about or what they are seeing. Years ago when the debate about Moneyball school of baseball verses the "old school" raged, Keith consistently talked down the Twins for not embracing it. He always downgraded their prospects and the team as a whole. Did he have a point - yes. Did the Twins have a point - yes. Today we are seeing a blending of the sabermetrics approach with the good old fashion scouting and as a result our Twins are on a roll. The quality of the players, outside of the top 20, they have signed and are developing is amazing. When this next group of prospects hits the Show our Twins will be competitive for years to come as the farm system produces quality players to fill positions that become empty. To Keith's credit he did rank the Twins farm system quite high. However, a number of teams appear to court his favor and he tends to wax eloquent on their players. I do not see him ever being objective in regards to the Twins. Baring any serious setbacks Stewart will be in the Show in three years. Look at the trajectory of superior talent through out the years and they jump through their team's farm systems very quickly. If Stewart is a superior talent as they say he is, then he will be there sooner rather than later.

 

Preaching to the choir with me. It is John who has sounded the alarm with this article- and the employment of a Trevor May comp. I hadn't heard any discussion to this point that taking Stewart was being construed by some as some sort of wild-eyed, cross your fingers and say a Hail Mary gamble of epic proportions.

 

FWIW- I am still of the camp that barring injury, he gets a call-up in 2016, but if any of the information presented here has credence, then some folks out there are attempting to rewrite the narrative of Stewart's potential.

[Badsmerf]

Let see...., Keith Law has a degree with honors from Harvard - sociology and economics and a masters degree in business admin. Does not appear to have ever played baseball much less coached it. No doubt about he is well qualified to scout players and to speculate on when they will arrive to the show. Personally I have no issues with Keith except he is a bit full of himself. One can look at all the baseball stats in the world and still not know what they are talking about or what they are seeing. Years ago when the debate about Moneyball school of baseball verses the "old school" raged, Keith consistently talked down the Twins for not embracing it. He always downgraded their prospects and the team as a whole. Did he have a point - yes. Did the Twins have a point - yes. Today we are seeing a blending of the sabermetrics approach with the good old fashion scouting and as a result our Twins are on a roll. The quality of the players, outside of the top 20, they have signed and are developing is amazing. When this next group of prospects hits the Show our Twins will be competitive for years to come as the farm system produces quality players to fill positions that become empty. To Keith's credit he did rank the Twins farm system quite high. However, a number of teams appear to court his favor and he tends to wax eloquent on their players. I do not see him ever being objective in regards to the Twins. Baring any serious setbacks Stewart will be in the Show in three years. Look at the trajectory of superior talent through out the years and they jump through their team's farm systems very quickly. If Stewart is a superior talent as they say he is, then he will be there sooner rather than later.

This is why we have a Keith Law Hates the Twins thread. However, he is hard to disagree with most of the time. He was rightfully down on the Twins when they were winning. The playoffs consistently showed why. I'm not a Klaw fan by any means, he is arrogant and takes the extreme to get a rise out of people.

[markos]

I put together a table of the recent top HS pitchers, and how they progressed through the minors. (Note: Year 1 is the first full season, so if the pitcher was drafted in 2007, Year 1 is 2008.)

 

[TABLE]

[/TD]

Draft Year

Year 1

Year 2

Year 3

Year 4

Year 5

Madison Bumgarner

[TD=align: right]2007

A

A+ - AA - MLB

AAA - MLB

MLB

[/TD]

Jarrod Parker

[TD=align: right]2007

A

A+ - AA

Injury

AA - MLB

AAA - MLB

Matt Hobgood

[TD=align: right]2009[/TD]

A

Rk - A-/Injury

Injury

A - A+

[/TD]

Zack Wheeler

[TD=align: right]2009

A

A+

AA - AAA

AAA - MLB

[/TD]

Jacob Turner

[TD=align: right]2009

A - A+

AA - AAA - MLB

A+ - AAA - MLB

AAA - MLB

[/TD]

Tyler Matzek

[TD=align: right]2009

A

A - A+

A+

AA

[/TD]

Matt Purke

[TD=align: right]2009

Injury

Injury

A / Injury

A - A+

[/TD]

Shelby Miller

[TD=align: right]2009

A

A+ - AA

AAA - MLB

MLB

[/TD]

Jameson Taillon

[TD=align: right]2010

A

A+ - AA

AA - AAA

[/TD]

Dylan Bundy

[TD=align: right]2011

A - A+ - AA - MLB

Injury

[/TD]

Archie Bradley

[TD=align: right]2011

A

A+ - AA

[/TD]

Jose Fernandez

[TD=align: right]2011

A - A+

MLB

[/TD]

Taylor Guerrieri

[TD=align: right]2011

A-

A / Injury

[/TD]

Robert Stephenson

[TD=align: right]2011

RK - A

A - A+ - AA

[/TD]

[TD]

[/TABLE]

 

I expect this progression for Stewart:

2014 - Entire season at Cedar Rapids

2015 - Start season at Ft. Myer, promoted to New Britain.

2016 - Start season at Rochester, promoted to majors.

2017 - Start season with Twins.

 

I think 2016 is the "best-case scenario" for Stewart reaching the majors. I don't think anyone is expecting him to force a rapid promotion like Bundy did, and I don't see the Twins aggressively promoting him like SF did with Bumgarner or Detroit did with Turner.

 

If he hasn't reached the majors by year 5 (2018), that has to be a complete disappointment. Almost every (non-injured) pitcher on this list is definitely in line to reach the majors in 4 years - many of them much sooner. The only exception is Tyler Matzek, who only reached AA by year 4.

[jokin]

I put together a table of the recent top HS pitchers, and how they progressed through the minors. (Note: Year 1 is the first full season, so if the pitcher was drafted in 2007, Year 1 is 2008.)

 

[TABLE]

[/TD]

Draft Year

Year 1

Year 2

Year 3

Year 4

Year 5

Madison Bumgarner

[TD=align: right]2007

A

A+ - AA - MLB

AAA - MLB

MLB

[/TD]

Jarrod Parker

[TD=align: right]2007

A

A+ - AA

Injury

AA - MLB

AAA - MLB

Matt Hobgood

[TD=align: right]2009

[/TD]

A

Rk - A-/Injury

Injury

A - A+

[/TD]

Zack Wheeler

[TD=align: right]2009

A

A+

AA - AAA

AAA - MLB

[/TD]

Jacob Turner

[TD=align: right]2009

A - A+

AA - AAA - MLB

A+ - AAA - MLB

AAA - MLB

[/TD]

Tyler Matzek

[TD=align: right]2009

A

A - A+

A+

AA

[/TD]

Matt Purke

[TD=align: right]2009

Injury

Injury

A / Injury

A - A+

[/TD]

Shelby Miller

[TD=align: right]2009

A

A+ - AA

AAA - MLB

MLB

[/TD]

Jameson Taillon

[TD=align: right]2010

A

A+ - AA

AA - AAA

[/TD]

Dylan Bundy

[TD=align: right]2011

A - A+ - AA - MLB

Injury

[/TD]

Archie Bradley

[TD=align: right]2011

A

A+ - AA

[/TD]

Jose Fernandez

[TD=align: right]2011

A - A+

MLB

[/TD]

Taylor Guerrieri

[TD=align: right]2011

A-

A / Injury

[/TD]

Robert Stephenson

[TD=align: right]2011

RK - A

A - A+ - AA

[/TD]

[TD]

[/TABLE]

 

I expect this progression for Stewart:

2014 - Entire season at Cedar Rapids

2015 - Start season at Ft. Myer, promoted to New Britain.

2016 - Start season at Rochester, promoted to majors.

2017 - Start season with Twins.

 

I think 2016 is the "best-case scenario" for Stewart reaching the majors. I don't think anyone is expecting him to force a rapid promotion like Bundy did, and I don't see the Twins aggressively promoting him like SF did with Bumgarner or Detroit did with Turner.

 

If he hasn't reached the majors by year 5 (2018), that has to be a complete disappointment. Almost every (non-injured) pitcher on this list is definitely in line to reach the majors in 4 years - many of them much sooner. The only exception is Tyler Matzek, who only reached AA by year 4.

 

Excellent post. Thanks for leg-working all of the good info. Top-end/top 5 pick HS guys, unless they have a major arm blow-out, should reasonably be expected to at least sniff the majors by Year 4.

 

Your progression table for Stewart was exactly how I envision things occurring for him- even with the conservative approach from the Twins. That's why the OP was such a derailment of expectations.