MLB.com's Top 50 Prospects Show

[jay]

I think Jokin did a reverse scoring to get the points system he has - which I think probably many publications would do (e.g. Buxton #1 overall, counts 100 pts, Stewart #40 overall, counts 60 pts).

 

I'd probably do a weighting system, and weight the top 20 prospects much more heavily as they typically, at least in BA's rankings, where top 20 prospects offer 1.5 WAR or higher during their controlled years at a 48% clip, whereas from #21-40 are at 28%, and the rest they do achieve that same contribution at around a 22% clip.

 

Spot on. A point system assigned by reverse order doesn't really tell you much, especially considering a number of Twins prospects just missed this list compared to others. You certainly wouldn't be able to get elite prospects in trades using those values.

 

The top 4 systems in my mind are the Pirates, Cubs, Astros, and Twins. You could argue the Red Sox belong in that top tier as well.

[oldguy10]

I find it incredulous that no one else has signed in on the statement that I made earlier about Mickey and Willie being better at age 20 to 22 than Trout and Hamilton also for that matter. In fact has there ever been any two better than Mantle and Mays at such an early age? Henry Aaron would qualify also except I think he may have been a little bit older than "The Mick" and "Say Hey".

[Craig Arko]

I find it incredulous that no one else has signed in on the statement that I made earlier about Mickey and Willie being better at age 20 to 22 than Trout and Hamilton also for that matter. In fact has there ever been any two better than Mantle and Mays at such an early age? Henry Aaron would qualify also except I think he may have been a little bit older than "The Mick" and "Say Hey".

 

Well, that's the whole thing about trying to compare eras. When things go off the scale it's just tough to say 'this is further off the scale than that.'

 

As for the show itself, most everything has been said. But if I ever have to watch the same three episodes of Bucks on the Pond over and over again, I'll have to cry. Or drink. Another tough choice.

[TRex]

I find it incredulous that no one else has signed in on the statement that I made earlier about Mickey and Willie being better at age 20 to 22 than Trout and Hamilton also for that matter. In fact has there ever been any two better than Mantle and Mays at such an early age? Henry Aaron would qualify also except I think he may have been a little bit older than "The Mick" and "Say Hey".

 

How can you argue with Mays, a 20 year old with an OPS>1.000 in AAA that ends up winning the ROY award or Mantle, who was 3rd in MVP voting at 19?

[Turd Furgeson]

I find it incredulous that no one else has signed in on the statement that I made earlier about Mickey and Willie being better at age 20 to 22 than Trout and Hamilton also for that matter. In fact has there ever been any two better than Mantle and Mays at such an early age? Henry Aaron would qualify also except I think he may have been a little bit older than "The Mick" and "Say Hey".

 

Huh? Mays certainly wasn't better from 20-22 I'm not sure how you could even argue that. Mickey Mantle is closer, he did lead the league in OPS his 20 year season but if you go by MVP voting, Trout finished second twice, and Mantle finished third and then 22nd. Trout had a fairly significant OPS advantage both seasons, but that's difficult to compare across such different eras.

 

An argument could be made that Mantle was the most deserving of the MVP in his 20 year old season, but there's a lot of people who think Trout was the most deserving of the MVP year the past two seasons, you can count myself among them.

[amjgt]

If you'd like to see the ceiling for Buxton praise, check out Callis' Twitter feed from last night. After lasting for what seemed like more tham four hours of excitement over Buck, I bet Callis had to be seen by a doctor.

 

A severe case of Buxton Priapism

[twinsfan34]

I find it incredulous that no one else has signed in on the statement that I made earlier about Mickey and Willie being better at age 20 to 22 than Trout and Hamilton also for that matter. In fact has there ever been any two better than Mantle and Mays at such an early age? Henry Aaron would qualify also except I think he may have been a little bit older than "The Mick" and "Say Hey".

 

I didn't think the argument would get an ear as most have already settled who's better behind even considering it.

 

I love the 'old guys' more than most. We all have biases, the best we can hope for is honest history. Bias history is a given.

[twinsfan34]

But if I must...

 

1. Ted Williams

2. Mel Ott

3. Mike Trout

4. Alex Rodriguez

5. Frank Robinson

6. Al Kaline

7. Ken Griffey, Jr.

8. Mickey Mantle

9. Willie Mays

10. Jimmie Foxx

 

For a list of top seasons at age 20, go here.

 

I believe Alex Rodriguez to be steroid free at that point.

 

I also believe Ted Williams to be in the discussion with Babe Ruth as the best baseball hitter ever.

 

Imagine Ted Williams with 4.5 more seasons, 3 of which at ages 24, 25, 26. The others at 33-34.

 

Seasons 24-26:

AVG - .350-.380 AVG

HR - 35-40

RBI - 130-160

OBP - .500

OPS+ - 215-235

 

Seasons 33-34:

AVG - .320-.360

HR - 25-30

RBI - 85 - 100

OBP - .480-.500

OPS+ - 165-200

 

He could have hit 50+ HR a year if he wanted to, but instead went for contact, his BB/K rates are unmatched. 3-to-1, 4-to-1.

[username]

But if I must...

 

1. Ted Williams

2. Mel Ott

3. Mike Trout

4. Alex Rodriguez

5. Frank Robinson

6. Al Kaline

7. Ken Griffey, Jr.

8. Mickey Mantle

9. Willie Mays

10. Jimmie Foxx

 

For a list of top seasons at age 20, go here.

 

I believe Alex Rodriguez to be steroid free at that point.

 

I also believe Ted Williams to be in the discussion with Babe Ruth as the best baseball hitter ever.

 

Imagine Ted Williams with 4.5 more seasons, 3 of which at ages 24, 25, 26. The others at 33-34.

 

Seasons 24-26:

AVG - .350-.380 AVG

HR - 35-40

RBI - 130-160

OBP - .500

OPS+ - 215-235

 

Seasons 33-34:

AVG - .320-.360

HR - 25-30

RBI - 85 - 100

OBP - .480-.500

OPS+ - 165-200

 

He could have hit 50+ HR a year if he wanted to, but instead went for contact, his BB/K rates are unmatched. 3-to-1, 4-to-1.

 

going for singles when you have 50 HR power is idiotic. ive heard people say this about ichiro too. if this is true then both of them are retarded.

[Turd Furgeson]

going for singles when you have 50 HR power is idiotic. ive heard people say this about ichiro too. if this is true then both of them are retarded.

 

So the guy who lead baseball in OPS 10 times was doing it wrong?

 

Ted Williams could have sold out for more home runs at a net loss to his offensive production, no question but he was a smarter hitter than that.

 

As far as Ichiro goes, I've heard he can light it up in batting practice but I haven't really seen any of it so I don't know. But clearly there is a disconnect somewhere with Ichiro, I don't think he deliberately decided to not hit any home runs.

[twinsfan34]

going for singles when you have 50 HR power is idiotic. ive heard people say this about ichiro too. if this is true then both of them are retarded.

 

Yeah, I've heard the Ichiro story, like he can hit quite a few HR in batting practice. I don't recall Ichiro ever saying he could hit 50 HR in a season. I would not buy it anyway.

 

Ted Williams was hitting 35-38 HR already. He of course, was not short on confidence and perhaps, borderline arrogance, but he made sense when he said at 2 strikes, he would shorten his swing and work a walk or solid contact. He wasn't going to strike out. He could have just said, to hell with it, and swung as hard as he could. To hit another 15 HR a season, and drop his average .30 pts...eh...not sure it would have been more valuable...less walks too.

 

I agree with Ferguson, he only qualified for the league OPS 13 seasons, and he led MLB 11 seasons of those 13. That's retarded. He was over 1.036 OPS every single year, but one. And that was at age 40...while having multiple injuries.

 

Miguel Caberera and Jose Bautista are the only players in 3 years (either league) to surpass that number, and barely.

 

Ted Williams, at age 41, had 1.096 OPS (weighted, 190 OPS+), both better than any season Miguel Cabrera has ever had.

 

That is, Ted Williams, at his lowest point, better than this generation's best hitter. While also having a 75-42 BB/SO ratio.

 

Four seasons, he had more HR than SO's. Unreal.

 

I've only seen highlights, but I just think that Babe Ruth and Ted Williams were unlike any other hitters, in any generation.

 

Defense? Meh, at best. Base runners? Babe was caught stealing a LOT. Ted, had no wheels. But those guys, at the dish, with a stick in their hands. Babe had a solid arm I guess.

 

All around players, athletes, to good at every phase of the game, well, that's another story. You have to weight the areas of important too.

[oldguy10]

Great stuff about Williams, I did not realize his numbers were that spectacular. He was as he said he wanted to be known as when he walked down the street: "There goes the greatest hitter that ever lived". So, who is #2 then if not the "Babe"? The "Man" perhaps?

[jokin]

Yeah, I've heard the Ichiro story, like he can hit quite a few HR in batting practice. I don't recall Ichiro ever saying he could hit 50 HR in a season. I would not buy it anyway.

 

Ted Williams was hitting 35-38 HR already. He of course, was not short on confidence and perhaps, borderline arrogance, but he made sense when he said at 2 strikes, he would shorten his swing and work a walk or solid contact. He wasn't going to strike out. He could have just said, to hell with it, and swung as hard as he could. To hit another 15 HR a season, and drop his average .30 pts...eh...not sure it would have been more valuable...less walks too.

 

I agree with Ferguson, he only qualified for the league OPS 13 seasons, and he led MLB 11 seasons of those 13. That's retarded. He was over 1.036 OPS every single year, but one. And that was at age 40...while having multiple injuries.

 

Miguel Caberera and Jose Bautista are the only players in 3 years (either league) to surpass that number, and barely.

 

Ted Williams, at age 41, had 1.096 OPS (weighted, 190 OPS+), both better than any season Miguel Cabrera has ever had.

 

That is, Ted Williams, at his lowest point, better than this generation's best hitter. While also having a 75-42 BB/SO ratio.

 

Four seasons, he had more HR than SO's. Unreal.

 

I've only seen highlights, but I just think that Babe Ruth and Ted Williams were unlike any other hitters, in any generation.

 

Defense? Meh, at best. Base runners? Babe was caught stealing a LOT. Ted, had no wheels. But those guys, at the dish, with a stick in their hands.

 

 

Babe had a solid arm I guess.

 

All around players, athletes, to good at every phase of the game, well, that's another story. You have to weight the areas of important too.

 

Good stuff in your post, twinsfan. But I'm not sure if the highlighted sentence is tongue in cheek on your part, or not. Babe was one of the best 3-5 AL SPs in the game at ages 21 and 22 ( Babe was second only to Walter Big Train Johnson in 1916). Had he just continued his career as a Starting Pitcher and part-time OFer, he would have undoubtedly qualfied for the HOF on those merits alone.

[twinsfan34]

Great stuff about Williams, I did not realize his numbers were that spectacular. He was as he said he wanted to be known as when he walked down the street: "There goes the greatest hitter that ever lived". So, who is #2 then if not the "Babe"? The "Man" perhaps?

 

Yea, I'd probably put Stan #3 - though with some competition.

 

I'll also need to admit, that Stan "The Man" Musial is my favorite all time player. I've read a lot on him. Listened to quite a few interviews. Seen highlights as available. And the guy is just someone I look up to in every way. He handled things with such poise.

 

From people asking him what he'd hit "against today's pitching" and he paused, responding, probably around .280. The reporter gasped, really only .280?! Stan responded, "Well, I'm 80 years old" with a wink. To asking for a pay cut. (A link for some stories, some found in the comments too) to plays where it was clearly a fair ball and him saying to the affect, "what's the point of arguing about it" and just getting in the box and doing it again. I played the same way - likely because I read of guys like him and well, John Wooden is another who really resonated with me.

 

But more than that, Stan's just a great hitter. I love the triple too, my favorite and toughest hit to get. So I have to fess up to all those 'giddy' biases.

 

But that aside, I'd probably put Stan at #3 or at least against in the mix. I find Lou Gehrig's 1934 and 1936 seasons to be unworldly spectacular to me, and they're the only two of their kind actually.

 

200 hits

100 BB

40 HR

More BB's than SO's (nearly 3 to 1 actually)

And more HR's than SO (49/46 and 49/31).

 

Also hit over .350 and 150 RBI...but yea...just the hits, walks, number of homers, and having more HR's than strikeouts.

 

I do enjoy watching some of the HR competitions and interviews and the stats of guys like Mickey Mantle and Harmon Killebrew. And I have great respect for Joe DiMaggio and Willie Mays. I love what the OPS+ and these weighted stats do for players. It at least tries to take into account the hitters advantage at Fenway and Yankee stadium or any other stadium for every particular stat...triples to average to home runs. Really helps to be able to compare across decades and even players within a decade.

 

Of today's hitters, I don't think we realize just how good Albert Pujols was this past decade. A .330 hitter during that stretch, with great power, and a great eye, and the fact he too, almost had the amazing more HR's than SO's season, including 9 seasons where he was within 25 or fewer strikeouts of his HR total for that season. In 2006 he hit 49 HR, struck out 50 times, and walked 92 times. So almost double BB to SO total.

 

I'd also put Frank Thomas in there, as the type of guy who can win the game, but also "the game won't end with me getting out" type of player. They can work a walk and a strikeout just wasn't going to be something that happened very often.

[twinsfan34]

Good stuff in your post, twinsfan. But I'm not sure if the highlighted sentence is tongue in cheek on your part, or not. Babe was one of the best 3-5 AL SPs in the game at ages 21 and 22 ( Babe was second only to Walter Big Train Johnson in 1916). Had he just continued his career as a Starting Pitcher and part-time OFer, he would have undoubtedly qualfied for the HOF on those merits alone.

 

Yes, you're right. I probably undervalue Babe in a way. I read some where it seemed he was 'impatient' to 'careless' (maybe a little less poise) in other areas of his game. Possible also over-analytical projection-esque on my part too. Or maybe that fact he was such a good hitter.

 

He had 9 shutouts in his first full season as a SP...I think there's only been 4 seasons in the AL since then (1916) with more shutouts.

[oldguy10]

More on "The Man" - Watched Bob Costas's eulogy on youtube, simply terrific. During it Bob mentioned doing the eulogy at Mickey's funeral also. He says......As I was speaking all of the ex players were grouped together up at the front but I glanced half way down the aisle and saw Stan standing by himself. He had gotten on a plane from St. Louis and flew to Mickey's funeral all by himself just to pay homage to a great fellow player. Then quietly slipped out and returned again to St. Louis. That is just about all we need to know about the classiness of "The Man", isn't it? YouTube probably still has Bob's eulogy on Stan and Mickey's also I would imagine.